NFL DFS Prop Picks for Tuesday (10/13/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

Tuesday night brings more NFL action and that always means more chances to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The Buffalo Bills are in control atop the AFC East – how long since we could say that? – with a 4-0 record. The odd thing about it is that the Bills offense has been so good, averaging 6.4 yards per play which ranks fourth in the league, that it has masked a defense that has now been as good as advertised. Buffalo’s defense is allowing 5.9 yards per play, which is not quite middle of the pack defensively.

The story of the Tennessee Titans isn’t so much about what’s happening on the field (though they are allowing 6.5 yards per play defensively, second-worst in the league), it’s that they have had a big Covid-19 breakout and have thrown schedules into chaos. Their Week 4 game was turned into a bye week. This week they are playing on Tuesday. Their facility has been opening and closing based on news of positive tests. It’s hard to imagine this is all conducive to playing their best football.

Even so, the Titans have a premier running game, when most of the league is focused on passing, and that zig appears to be working while others are zagging. Will it work well enough to knock the Bills from the ranks of the undefeated?

Here are some angles to consider for the Tuesday night NFL game on Monkey Knife Fight:

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BUFFALO-TENNESSEE

View Contest

MORE OR LESS

Josh Allen MORE THAN 290.5 PASSNG YARDS

Buffalo’s breakthrough star quarterback is averaging 331.5 passing yards per game through four weeks and Week 4 was the first time that he was held under 290 yards, finishing with 288 yards against the Raiders. Because of positive Covid-19 tests, Tennessee has played just three games right now, allowing 256.3 passing yards per contest, and 7.1 net yards per pass attempt, both of which are below average relative to the rest of the league.

Ryan Tannehill MORE THAN 240.5 PASSING YARDS

Tennessee’s quarterback is viewed as more of a game manager, and that’s fine. He has averaged 269.7 passing yards per game this season and 259.8 per game in 10 starts for the Titans last season. Buffalo’s games have been a little bit like pinball, with the Bills and their opponents both able to move the ball, so Buffalo’s defense has allowed 280.3 passing yards per game, which is quite high, and 6.7 net yards per pass attempt, which is below average defensively. With the potential return of Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown, all the more reason to lean into Tannehill for at least 241 passing yards.

Derrick Henry LESS THAN 100.5 RUSHING YARDS

The engine that drives the Tennessee offense, Henry averaged 102.7 rushing yards per game last season and is up to 106.3 per game early in 2020. The Bills are allowing 4.4 yards per carry, which is right at league average, but the Bills have been leading most of the time so their opponents tend not to run a whole lot, and Buffalo’s 101 rushing yards allowed per game is significantly better than average. It should be a competitive game but maybe not one in which the Titans are running out the clock, so banking on more than 100 rushing yards, even from Henry, is asking a lot.

Jonnu Smith MORE THAN 4.5 RECEPTIONS

The Titans tight end is a valuable complementary piece and has 13 catches in three games (4.33 per game) this season. With A.J. Brown returning to action, maybe there won’t be quite as many looks for Smith but given the choice between four or fewer or five or more, this leans towards the over.

RAPID FIRE

Stefon Diggs -0.5 receptions vs. A.J. Brown

Diggs has transitioned seamlessly to Buffalo and he’s averaging 6.5 catches per game in his first four games for the Bills. Brown was a rising star as a rookie last season but suffered a knee injury in Week 1 and is just set to make his return to the lineup. If Brown is at full strength, maybe this becomes a closer matchup but with him just coming back from injury, it’s easier to side with Diggs.

Jonnu Smith +4.5 receiving yards vs. John Brown

Both are nice complementary pieces to their teams’ respective offenses. Smith can get down the field better than most tight ends and when the Titans are churning out yards on the ground, it’s nice to have a tight end who can take advantage of easy play action. Brown is a quality threat coming off a 2019 season in which he recorded a career-high 1,060 receiving yards. He’s a little banged-up with a calf injury right now and that might swing the balance towards Smith.

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