NFL DFS Prop Picks for Sunday (10/18/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

Week 6 of the NFL season is upon us, which means a busy Sunday full of opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.

The season is now officially in bye week territory, and not just “Covid-19 cancelled the game so we’re calling it a bye” territory. Four teams had byes last week. Four more again this week and that includes the Raiders, Chargers, Saints, and Seahawks.

With a lighter schedule, you might think that the league would consider a bit of a balance between the early and late schedules but, of course, you would be wrong. There are nine games going early on Sunday afternoon, with just two games in the late afternoon window. I know, Brady vs. Rodgers is in that late window but it’s still a little tilted. Anyway, that should mean a better selection when looking at the early games on the Star Shootout.

Here are some Star Shootout angles to consider for Sunday’s NFL games on Monkey Knife Fight:

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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES

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Matt Ryan MORE THAN 294.5 PASSING YARDS

It’s been a brutal season for the Falcons, and not so great for this week’s opposition, the Minnesota Vikings. Ryan has averaged 294.4 passing yards per game this season but that number is inflated by his 450 yards passing in Week 1. He has been held to 285 passing yards or fewer in each of the past four games. Minnesota’s pass defense hasn’t been very good, at least in part because of injuries in the secondary, and they’re allowing 271.4 passing yards per game, 7.5 net yards per pass attempt. That is vulnerable enough for Ryan to have success through the air.

Ben Roethlisberger LESS THAN 273.5 PASSING YARDS

This may come down to just how much the Steelers need to throw the ball because they haven’t had to chuck it that much on their way to a 4-0 record. Roethlisberger is averaging 254 passing yards per game and while the Browns Defense has allowed 296.4 passing yards per game, which is among the highest in the league, they are only giving up 6.5 net yards per pass attempt, which is right around league average.

Teddy Bridgewater LESS THAN 265.5 PASSING YARDS

The Panthers passing game has been surprisingly potent as Bridgewater is averaging 292 passing yards per game. However, the Bears Defense is good, really good. They have allowed 230.8 passing yards per game, which is good. They have allowed 5.7 net yards per pass attempt which is great, ranking third in the league. All that suggests that it could be a challenging day for Bridgewater.

Derrick Henry MORE THAN 105.5 RUSHING YARDS

This is a big number even for great runner like Henry. He is averaging 94 rushing yards through the first four games and has gone for more than 106 yards twice. He’s also going up against a Texans team that is surrendering 4.7 yards per carry and 160.4 rushing yards per game, they will certainly be vulnerable against the league’s most forceful runner. So even with that huge number, this might be the right matchup for Henry to get the job done.

RAPID FIRE

Allen Robinson -0.5 receptions vs. Julio Jones

After griping early in the season about not getting enough looks, Robinson has 27 catches on 39 targets in the past three games. Jones has missed the past couple of games with a hamstring injury and before that was targeted four times in each of the previous two games. That health uncertainty makes Robinson the safer play as a favorite.

Deshaun Watson +1.5 fantasy points vs. Lamar Jackson

As bad as the Texans have been overall, Watson is still productive enough, passing for more than 290 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. He also goes against a Titans teams that has been of the bend-don’t-break style of defense, so they have given up some yardage. Jackson has been good this season but not as electric as he was in 2019. There isn’t enough of an advantage going against Philadelphia’s defense to like Jackson as the favorite here.

STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES

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Aaron Rodgers LESS THAN 305.5 PASSING YARDS

Rodgers is having a fantastic season, which includes 13 touchdown passes in four games and he is averaging 303.5 passing yards per contest. He faces a Buccaneers Defense that is better than average, allowing 239.8 passing yards per game and 6.1 net yards per pass attempt.

Tom Brady LESS THAN 290.5 PASSING YARDS

Brady has been productive in Tampa Bay, even though he’s had some key players miss time with injuries. He is averaging 275 passing yards per game and faces a Packers team allowing 247.5 passing yards per game and 6.8 net yards per pass attempt, which is fairly mediocre overall. This game could turn into a shootout between two legendary quarterbacks but they also could throw for 275 yards and three touchdowns apiece.

Aaron Jones MORE THAN 68.5 RUSHING YARDS

Jones is awesome, averaging 93.5 rushing yards per game this season, but he is facing a Bucs defense that is as sturdy against the run as any team in the league, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and an average of 58.4 rushing yards against per game. A slight lean towards the over.

Chris Godwin LESS THAN 16.5 FANTASY POINTS

Godwin has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury so that makes it difficult to count on a huge day in his return to action and producing at least 17 fantasy points, even with a PPR format, is still a big day.

RAPID FIRE

Davante Adams -0.5 receptions vs. Jamison Crowder

A bit of a running trend here is that some top receivers have been missing time recently due to hamstring injuries and that goes for Adams, who has missed the past two games and left early in Week 2. But, Adams is also the primary target for Aaron Rodgers and that included 17 targets and 14 catches in Week 1. Crowder is quite productive, and has 22 catches on 33 targets in the three games that he has played this season but there is a difference between being the No. 1 receiving option for Aaron Rodgers and the No. 1 receiving option for Joe Flacco.

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