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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 5. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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Titans @ Jaguars: More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Ryan Tannehill more than 250.5 passing yards and Trevor Lawrence more than 250.5 passing yards
This game could turn into a shootout as the current total is sitting at 48.5 and has room to go up as both defenses struggle mightily against the pass. We will start with Ryan Tannehill who has gone over this total twice thus far in 2021. The Titans will certainly try to get the ball rolling with stud running back Derrick Henry, but the Jags have been solid against the run this far as they are allowing backs to average just 3.44 yards per carry. On the other hand, however, Jacksonville is allowing quarterbacks to throw for an average of 320.75 passing yards per game, which ranks third-worst in the league.
Tennessee is favored in this game and could lead to Lawrence and the Jags having to throw a bit more in this one and that is likely a good thing. Currently, Tennessee is giving up the 10th-most passing yards per game to quarterbacks by allowing nearly 281 yards per game. Lawrence could be in line for one of his best days of 2021 thus far.
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Browns @ Chargers: More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Justin Herbert more than 294.5 passing yards and Baker Mayfield less than 249.5 passing yards
This game is a battle of two different styles of offense. The Chargers want to get out and move the ball through the air while the Browns will likely look to ground and pound the rock. Herbert has thrown for over this total in three of his first four games to start the season and is averaging 294.5 passing yards per game. He and the Chargers will be facing a Browns' defense that is allowing just 209 passing yards per game but have yet to face an offense like this Chargers offense aside from the Chiefs in Week 1 in which Mahomes torched them for 337 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Browns are also very strong against the run as they are only allowing running backs to average just 51.5 rushing yards per game, so a passing attack may be the best course of action for the Chargers in this one as well.
Mayfield and the Browns will likely come out looking to run the ball against a Chargers defense that has allowed running backs to average over 114 rushing yards per game, which ranks fifth-worst in the league. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should get a steady diet in this one and that should keep Baker under this total. The Chargers also have one of the best pass defenses in the league as they are allowing quarterbacks to average just 207 passing yards per game, which ranks fourth-best in the league.
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49ers @ Cardinals: Reception Collection Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds, and Deebo Samuel to combine for more than 21.5 receptions
This contest starts with the leading target earner in Arizona with Hopkins who has been targeted 25 times and come down with 17 receptions. This game has a total of 49.5 and could certainly feature a lot of passing. While the 49ers have not been awful against wide receivers, they have allowed 46 receptions to the position and Hopkins should play a prominent role in this game.
One area where the 49ers have been suspect is against pass-catching running backs and that is exactly where Chase Edmonds comes in. The 49ers have allowed the seventh-most receptions to backs with 26 on the season. Edmonds has been targeted the third-most on this Cardinals' team and has hauled in the most receptions with 20. He should be heavily involved in this offense and makes a ton of sense in this contest. Update: Chase Edmonds has yet to practice as of Friday. If he ends up missing this game, James Conner could be subbed in his place as he will see the bulk of the workload from the backfield.
Deebo Samuel is the top target earned in San Francisco as he has seen double-digit targets in three of the Niners' first four games. He has hauled in a whopping 28 balls thus far in 2021 and will have a matchup against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed the 10th-most receptions to wide receivers by allowing 58. The 49ers are also 5.5-point underdogs in this game, which should also lead to additional targets for Samuel late in the game.
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