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As has become tradition in the National Football League, the first Monday night of the season brings about a double-header, which means twice as many chances to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
The opening Sunday had strange sightings, like Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, Cam Newton in New England, and Mitch Trubisky leading fourth-quarter comeback for the Bears. But, after no preseason games, it was still comforting to have a full Sunday schedule.
The beats were the same – the urgency leading up to the early games, waiting for kickoff. Then the scores start to roll in and the tickers scrolls across the bottom of your television, telling you which players are producing. Even without crowds, it mostly felt like a normal Sunday.
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PITTSBURGH-N.Y. GIANTS
MORE OR LESS
Ben Roethlisberger MORE THAN 279.5 PASSING YARDS
Last season was pretty much a write-off for Big Ben, who was injured in Week Two, but in 2018 he led one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league, throwing for 5,129 yards and surpassing 280 yards in 11 of 16 starts. He goes against a Giants team that allowed the fifth-most passing yards last season (264.1 yards per game) so even if this is a pretty big number, it’s achievable.
Daniel Jones LESS THAN 239.5 PASSING YARDS
After taking over as the Giants’ starter last season, Jones averaged 250.8 passing yards per game and he should have a healthier receiving corps to start the 2020 season compared to last season, when Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram each missed at least five games. Pittsburgh’s pass defense was excellent last season, allowing 194.6 yards per game, so that does present a challenge for Jones. There is also the matter of the Giants having a premier running back, so they might be inclined to throw quite as often.
Saquon Barkley LESS THAN 85.5 RUSHING YARDS
Injuries slowed Barkley somewhat in his sophomore season and he still rushed for an average of 77.2 yards per game in 2019. The Steelers were relatively successful against the run last season, allowing 3.8 yards per carry, the third-lowest average in the league, so the yards won’t come easily for Saquon in this one.
James Conner MORE THAN 16.5 FANTASY POINTS
Injuries hampered Conner in 2019 as he put up 715 yards and seven touchdowns in 10 games. Based on those numbers, expectations should be relatively low. However, the Steelers will almost surely be better offensively with Roethlisberger back under center and, even if the Giants were better than average against the run last season, Conner is also a capable receiver out of the backfield so he has a few ways to make it to at least 17 fantasy points.
RAPID FIRE
JuJu Smith-Schuster -16.5 receiving yards vs. Diontae Johnson
Johnson was impressive as a rookie. Though he averaged a modest 42.5 receiving yards per game, he flashed brilliance and was particularly effective in the final quarter of the season. Smith-Schuster was something of a disappointment in 2019 but getting Roethlisberger back in the lineup ought to improve his chances to produce. The difference for this matchup among Steelers teammates in Week One, though, could be that Johnson is battling a foot injury that leaves his status as questionable for Monday, so even if he plays, he probably won’t be at 100%, which is all the more reason to prefer Smith-Schuster as the favorite.
Evan Engram +0.5 receptions vs. Sterling Shepard
Engram missed half of last season and averaged 5.5 receptions per game in the games in which he dressed. Shepard missed six games and averaged 5.7 receptions per game. That’s close enough to like Engram as the underdog.
TENNESSEE-DENVER
MORE OR LESS
Ryan Tannehill MORE THAN 229.5 PASSING YARDS
Tannehill was a revelation for the Titans last season and while he averaged 228.5 passing yards per game in 2019, he averaged 259.8 passing yards per game in his 10 starts. Denver’s pass defense was above average (225.6 yards per game, 6.3 net yards per attempt) last season but they’re also going without pass rusher Von Miller who suffered an ankle injury late in training camp, so this seems like a reasonable matchup for Tannehill’s passing production.
Drew Lock LESS THAN 226.5 PASSING YARDS
While there is some optimism about Lock’s future as the Broncos’ starting quarterback, he averaged a rather pedestrian 204 passing yards per game in his five starts as a rookie last season. Tennessee’s pass defense was a little below average (255.0 yards per game, 6.4 net yards per attempt) but not bad, and the Broncos may be missing a couple of wide receivers – Courtland Sutton and rookie K.J. Hamler – making it even more difficult for Lock to throw down the field.
Derrick Henry MORE THAN 99.5 RUSHING YARDS
The Titans found the mix that worked for them in the second half of last season and Henry rushed for more than 100 yards in five of the last six regular-season games and then in two of three playoff contests. Naturally, he rushed for 100 yards or more in the wins and missed that threshold in losses. Denver’s run defense was about average last season, allowing 4.2 yards per carry, so the question is whether the Titans, favored by three, are going to be on the winning side and running out the clock.
Melvin Gordon LESS THAN 55.5 RUSHING YARDS
There are two main issues at play when trying to figure out if Denver’s new running back is going to get loose for at least 56 rushing yards against Tennessee. He averaged 51.0 rushing yards per game last season and goes against a Titans defense that was better-than-average (104.5 yards per game, 4.0 yards per carry) defensively against the run. So that’s one hurdle to overcome. The other is that Gordon is facing competition on his own roster, as Phillip Lindsay is going to share time with Gordon in the Broncos’ backfield.
RAPID FIRE
Jerry Jeudy +0.5 receptions vs. A.J. Brown
This is all about opportunity. Brown is the more accomplished pro, coming off a rookie season in which he caught 52 passes for 1051 yards. Jeudy was the 15 pick in the 2020 Draft and, suddenly, looks like he is going to be Denver’s primary option in the passing game with Courtland Sutton (sprained shoulder) and K.J. Hamler (hamstring) questionable at best for Monday’s game.
