RADIO
The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs meet in Miami this Sunday with the championship on the line and it’s the last time in this NFL season to play props on Monkey Knife Fight.
It’s a compelling matchup between two outstanding teams. The Chiefs finished with a 12-4 record but weren’t necessarily a dominant team during the regular season. They fell behind in both playoff games before roaring back to earn decisive wins and those wins showed the explosive potential of the Kansas City offense when quarterback Patrick Mahomes is healthy.
On the other side of the field, the San Francisco 49ers finished the regular season with a 13-3 record and then ran roughshod over the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers to emerge from the NFC. The 49ers have a dominant defense and it will have to be at its best to keep the Chiefs in check but, if they can, that could set up a very competitive matchup.
Can a great defense contain a great offense? That’s the question to be answered Sunday and, right now, the great offense is a 1.5-point favorite.
Here are some angles to consider when making your prop picks for Sunday’s game on Monkey Knife Fight.
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SAN FRANCISCO-KANSAS CITY
MORE OR LESS
Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 309.5 PASSING YARDS – This is a large number for Mahomes to cover considering that he averaged 304.2 passing yards per game (excluding the Denver game in which he left early with injury) and he’s thrown for 310 or more yards eight times in 16 games this season, so it’s a fair starting spot. At the same time, he’s facing a 49ers Defense that was clearly the best in the league in terms of pass defense, allowing 169.2 passing yards per game and 5.9 passing yards per attempt. Obviously, Mahomes has the potential to put up numbers against any team but the 49ers have a chance to at least limit his potential impact.
Jimmy Garoppolo MORE THAN 237.5 PASSING YARDS – The question isn’t so much whether Garoppolo is capable of throwing for 238 yards because that’s easily achievable for a player who averaged 248.6 passing yards per game and threw for at least 240 yards in 10 of 18 games. The challenge is whether or not the Niners will feel the need to throw the ball because they only attempted 27 passes, total, in two playoff wins. Maybe the 49ers will try to run all day but if they feel the need to keep pace with the Chiefs, Jimmy G can throw it, too.
George Kittle MORE THAN 5.5 RECEPTIONS – He’s dealing with a shoulder injury and the Niners may not throw the ball that much but Kittle is the game-breaker in the San Francisco passing game. He has accumulated at least six receptions in 10 of 16 games (10 of 14 during the regular season) and he has value no matter the game situation. If the 49ers have to chase the Chiefs, Kittle is a threat when he gets the ball in the open field. If the 49ers are looking to protect a lead, Kittle is a reliable option who caught 79.4% of targeted passes this season.
Tyreek Hill LESS THAN 79.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Hill is a deep threat, one that can change the game, but he hasn’t had 80 receiving yards in a game since Week 10 and had 80 or more yards three times in 14 games this season. Taking that against the best pass defense in the league, it seems like 80 yards is asking a lot.
Raheem Mostert LESS THAN 86.5 RUSHING YARDS – It has been a long and winding path for Mostert, who is in his third season with the Niners, his sixth NFL team. He had a monster performance in the NFC Championship against Green Bay, running for 220 yards. It was, however, only the second time all season that he rushed for more than 86 yards in a game. Will the Niners give him enough carries to get there against Kansas City? The Chiefs allowed 128.2 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry which exposes some vulnerability but once the Chiefs offense gets going, the opposition doesn’t get to run very much, and the Chiefs allowed a total of 179 rushing yards in their previous two playoff wins.
Travis Kelce LESS THAN 6.5 RECEPTIONS – Just as Kittle is a central part of the 49ers passing game, Kelce is a consistently featured target in the Chiefs’ game plan – he has 200 catches in the past two seasons! He does have at least seven receptions in 10 of 18 contests this season but the 49ers defense is sturdy enough to think seven catches won’t come easily.
Damien Williams MORE THAN 53.5 RUSHING YARDS – The Chiefs’ running back carousel has landed on Williams, at least more than the others, at this stage of the season. Although Kansas City doesn’t give Williams that many carries – 59 carries for 281 yards in four games since returning to the lineup in Week 16 – it’s enough to like his chances to be productive, especially if the Chiefs get into the lead.
RAPID FIRE
Damien Williams +33.5 rushing yards vs. Raheem Mostert – Mostert would seem to have the higher ceiling, which is easy to say after he rushed for 220 yards in the NFC Championship Game, but if a more reasonable expectation puts Mostert in the range of 80 rushing yards then Williams can find his way to stay within 33 yards. Really, it’s just such a big margin considering that Williams has averaged more than 70 rushing yards per game since getting back in the Kansas City lineup.
Travis Kelce -0.5 receptions vs. Tyreek Hill – Although Kelce has just two receptions in two of the past three games, he’s typically a bigger part of the Kansas City offense, averaging 6.1 receptions per game. Hill is a game-breaker but is not the consistent target week-in and week-out like Kelce, averaging 4.8 receptions per game.
Sammy Watkins +2.5 receptions vs. George Kittle – While Kittle is clearly the more reliable option, who averaged 6.1 receptions per game during the regular season, Watkins comes with higher peaks and lower valleys, on his way to 3.7 receptions per game. As the number three option in the Chiefs’ passing game, Watkins may find his way to decent usage against San Francisco if the 49ers have their defensive focus on Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
FANTASY CHALLENGE
Take three players to accumulate at least 54.5 fantasy points.
I’m pretty high on the elite tight ends in this game so consider both Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Beyond that, 49ers Raheem Mostert gets the edge for the third spot ahead of Tyreek Hill and Damien Williams.
TOUCHDOWN DANCE
Take three players to score at least 2.5 touchdowns.
Pretty much the same thinking as above. Travis Kelce and George Kittle have the potential to dominate the game and have the size to make an impact in the red zone. Damien Williams might be a little better option for scoring touchdowns because Raheem Mostert doesn’t always get the short yardage action for the Niners.
