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The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs goes this weekend with some potentially competitive matchups and opportunities to cash in playing props on Monkey Knife Fight.
One of the challenges in the second weekend of playoff action is that teams coming off wildcard weekend victories are on the road facing division winners that had a bye in Round One. That tilts the odds towards the favorites as they get the benefit of an extra week to get healthy and prepare.
With that under consideration, it appears that I’m siding with the defenses this weekend, at least when it comes to passing yardage for quarterbacks. I have seven of eight quarterbacks under the number this weekend.
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MINNESOTA-SAN FRANCISCO
MORE OR LESS
Jimmy Garoppolo LESS THAN 255.5 PASSING YARDS – This is a relatively high total for Jimmy G, who has thrown for more than 255 yards six times in 16 games this season, including just twice in the past six games. Minnesota’s pass defense is a little better than average, at 6.8 yards per attempt and 233.6 passing yards per game, and the 49ers are favored to win which means a better chance that they are running out the clock.
Kirk Cousins LESS THAN 230.5 PASSING YARDS – Cousins is coming off a big win in the wildcard round and averaged 240.2 passing yards per game this season but he’s facing the best pass defense in the league, as the Niners allowed 5.9 yards per attempt and 169.2 passing yards per game, both numbers were best in class.
RAPID FIRE
George Kittle -12.5 receiving yards vs. Stefon Diggs – Diggs has only been targeted 14 times in the past three games and has been held under 50 receiving yards in half of the past eight games. Since returning from injury, Kittle has recorded at least 65 receiving yards in five of six games and his consistency makes him the savvy choice here.
Deebo Samuel +0.5 receptions vs. Adam Thielen – Kittle’s return has cut into Samuel’s productivity, and he has 19 catches in the past six games, but Thielen’s big game last week (seven catches for 129 yards) was the first time since Week 6 that he had more than three receptions in a game. Thielen is also dealing with a laceration around his ankle, suffered in practice this week.
TENNESSEE-BALTIMORE
MORE OR LESS
Ryan Tannehill LESS THAN 215.5 PASSING YARDS – Since taking over the starting quarterback job in Tennessee, Tannehill is averaging 242.7 passing yards per game but he’s facing a Ravens Defense that is one of the best against the pass, allowing 6.6 yards per attempt and 207.2 passing yards per game.
Lamar Jackson MORE THAN 200.5 PASSING YARDS – While he doesn’t have to put up huge passing yardage to lead the Ravens to victory, Jackson did average 208.5 passing yards per game and threw for more than 200 yards in nine of 15 games. Tennessee is allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt, which is better than average, and 255.0 passing yards per game, which is below average; enough vulnerability to like Jackson’s chances.
Derrick Henry MORE THAN 99.5 RUSHING YARDS – The Ravens defense is no easy touch but Henry has rushed for at least 100 yards in six of the past seven games. The Titans offense runs through him and if they want to keep the ball away from Lamar Jackson, Henry churning out yards on the ground is a way to do it.
RAPID FIRE
A.J. Brown -0.5 receiving yards vs. Mark Andrews – Before managing one catch for four yards last week, Brown finished the regular season with 100.8 receiving yards per game in the last six weeks of the regular season. Andrews is a consistent threat but hasn’t surpassed 100 yards since Week 2.
Derrick Henry -35.5 rushing yards vs. Mark Ingram – Ingram has a calf strain and averaged 60.0 rushing yards per game in the last four games of the regular season. Henry is on a great finishing stretch right now and if he’s going to get at least 100 yards or more it’s not unreasonable to think that he can cover this margin against Ingram.
HOUSTON-KANSAS CITY
MORE OR LESS
Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 310.5 PASSING YARDS – Early in the season, this was automatic for Mahomes but he’s been held under 300 yards passing in five of the past six games. The Texans have poor pass defense numbers (7.9 yards per attempt, 267.3 yards per game) but that’s a big number to cover.
Deshaun Watson LESS THAN 250.5 PASSING YARDS – Watson has been held under 250 passing yards in four of the past five games and the Chiefs’ pass defense is solid, allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
RAPID FIRE
Travis Kelcie +0.5 receptions vs. DeAndre Hopkins – On yardage, the edge would go to Hopkins, who has picked up his production late in the season but Kelce is too consistent when it comes to receptions, averaging 6.1 receptions per game for the season.
SEATTLE-GREEN BAY
MORE OR LESS
Aaron Rodgers LESS THAN 251.5 PASSING YARDS – Passing for 323 yards at Detroit in Week 17 ended a seven-game streak of Rodgers being held under 250 yards passing. Seattle’s pass defense numbers (7.4 yards per attempt, 263.9 passing yards per game) are suspect but Rodgers’ passing production has been spotty this season.
Russell Wilson LESS THAN 250.5 PASSING YARDS – Russ might be a scary proposition for opponents but it’s not because he puts up big passing yardage. He has been held under 250 passing yards in six of the past eight games.
Aaron Jones MORE THAN 69.5 RUSHING YARDS – One of the reasons that the Packers don’t require big passing totals from Rodgers is that they have another productive Aaron in the backfield. Aaron Jones has rushed for at least 100 yards in three of the past four games and could present a challenge to a Seahawks Defense that is allowing 4.9 yards per carry.
RAPID FIRE
Davante Adams -12.5 receiving yards vs. Tyler Lockett – Adams has a higher ceiling, finished the season strong, and averaged 83.1 receiving yards per game. Lockett battled through injury late in the year and averaged 66.1 receiving yards per game.
