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Welcome back and happy Saturday, RotoBallers! We have a fun matchup as Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers (10-8) head out west coming off of a massive upset of the Cowboys in Dallas. This week, they'll take on Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and the San Francisco 49ers (12-5) in an NFC Divisional Round showdown.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Packers vs. 49ers NFL DFS showdown slate on January 20. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Christian McCaffrey - RB, $18,300 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 272 rushing attempts, 1,459 rushing yards, 83 targets, 67 receptions, 564 receiving yards, 21 touchdowns, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 21.63%
I'll start things off with Christian McCaffrey. Many moons ago, the season that CMC had put together would have won him an MVP. He's been remarkable, but I think that he has higher ambitions for the 2023-24 season. He'll get a chance to make his mark on these NFL Playoffs tomorrow against Green Bay's 26th-ranked rushing defense. McCaffrey projects to 99.16 rushing yards and 3.95 receptions for 31.41 yards on 4.91 targets, as well as 1.41 touchdowns.
Brock Purdy - QB, $15,000 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 4,280 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 39 rushing attempts, 144 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 64.01%
I'll take a look at Brock Purdy next. Purdy's season ended in the middle of the NFC Championship a year ago. After a long off-season rehabbing a torn UCL, followed by an incredible 2023 campaign, Purdy will look to "make things right" these playoffs. He'll take on the 27th-ranked Green Bay passing defense. While they slowed down Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense last week, I have a hard time thinking they'll do the same tonight. My model projects Purdy to throw for 278.38 yards and 2.45 touchdowns in this one.
Other Captains/MVPs: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Love, Jayden Reed
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Deebo Samuel - WR, $10,400 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 37 rushing attempts, 225 rushing yards, 89 targets, 60 receptions, 892 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR2: 5.31%
I'll take a look at a third 49er here, and a solid correlation play here if you're going to run Brock Purdy at the 1.5x spot. Deebo found his stride later in the season, and projects to have himself a great game in the Divisional Round. He projects to 16.35 rushing yards on just 2.19 carries, as well as 5.93 receptions on 7.44 targets for 85.16 yards. He projects to 0.91 total touchdowns.
Jayden Reed - WR, $6,800 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 11 rushing attempts, 119 rushing yards, 97 targets, 64 receptions, 793 receiving yards, ten touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: -14.6%
I'll flip the field and look at what some may consider Green Bay's version of Deebo Samuel in Jayden Reed. Now, the 49ers rank fourth in passing defense, but 15th in rushing defense in terms of DVOA. Fortunately for Reed, he works not just as a receiver but out of the backfield as well, despite only projecting 0.63 rushing attempts for 4.68 yards. He also projects to 4.96 receptions on 6.93 targets for 46.65 yards and 0.35 total touchdowns. If this game turns into a shootout, I have to imagine you'll want Jayden Reed in your lineup.
Other Flex Options: George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Love, Aaron Jones
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
San Francisco 49ers - D/ST, $4,200 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 17.18 points per game allowed, 48 sacks, 22 interceptions, six fumble recoveries, and one defensive touchdown.
I'll take a look at the 49ers defense yet. We're getting a great price on the Niners' defense, particularly on DraftKings, likely because the Packers put up 48 points in Dallas last weekend. The 49ers aren't the Cowboys, so I think they will fare a bit better against Jordan Love and the Packers' offense. San Francisco projects an absurd 56.31% pressure rate and a 5.82% sack rate in this one, and even should the Packers look to neutralize the Niners with the ground game, that gives us a solid floor as I can't imagine that Green Bay will be effective enough on the ground to put up a ton of points.
Luke Musgrave - TE, $3,600 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 49 targets, 37 receptions, 404 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs TE: -17.12%
I'll wrap things up with Luke Musgrave. After catching just one pass for 11 yards in his first game post-injury, Musgrave answered the bell in the Wild Card round, catching each of his three targets for 32 yards and a touchdown. He projects to 2.56 receptions on 2.67 targets for 24.66 yards and 0.13 touchdowns in this one. Sure, the 49ers rank third in DVOA against tight ends, but I had just mentioned the absurd projected pressure rate that the 49ers defense is projected to have. I expect Musgrave to be an escape valve for Jordan Love.
Other Value Plays: Elijah Mitchell, Jauan Jennings, Anders Carlson
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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