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Welcome back and happy Sunday, RotoBallers! We have what should be a very fun matchup in this one. It pains me to say this as an Eagles fan, but I'm a football fan above all else: the two best teams in the NFC all year will battle it out to see who represents the conference in the Super Bowl. It's a fun quarterback matchup here, too, as the former number-one overall pick Jared Goff and the Lions (14-5) head to The Bay to take on "Mr. Irrelevant" Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers (13-5).
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Lions vs. 49ers NFL DFS showdown slate on January 28. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Brock Purdy - QB, $15,000 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 4,532 passing yards, 32 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 45 rushing attempts, 158 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 53.76%
I'll start today's slate off with Brock Purdy. Purdy and the Niners are projected to see some offensive regression, but that's not any different than any other team suiting up this Sunday. Despite the projected regression, Purdy and the Niners still have an awesome matchup in terms of passing DVOA, mostly due to how well they've been playing all season. Purdy is the highest projected player on today's slate, projecting 321.75 passing yards and 2.23 touchdowns while adding 9.4 yards and 0.18 projected TDs on the ground. I have a feeling he's going to put up a monster game in this one.
Christian McCaffrey - RB, $18,900 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 289 rushing attempts, 1,557 rushing yards, 95 targets, 74 receptions, 594 receiving yards, 23 touchdowns, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 4.63%
I'll take a look at Christian McCaffrey next. If I've said it once, I've said it a million times, we need to change the name of the "MVP" award to "best quarterback" because, in my opinion, no one deserved the MVP award more than CMC this season. He's been lightning in a bottle as he has been for the majority of his career, and he'll look to make his mark in today's game and head to his first Super Bowl. He projects to 69.89 yards on 18.1 carries and 4.27 receptions on 6.01 targets for 34.87 yards and 1.08 total touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jared Goff, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Amon-Ra St. Brown
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jared Goff - QB, $9,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 5,139 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 41 rushing attempts, 24 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and three fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 0.09%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Jared Goff next. Goff's career arc following him being drafted as the number-one overall pick back in 2016 has been quite the story to tell. He'll look to culminate this today and head to the Super Bowl for his second team after the Los Angeles Rams traded him and some first-round picks to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. I wouldn't say that the Rams lost that trade, given their Super Bowl 56 victory, but Goff and the Lions have made it their mission to make LA pay for it anyway. Goff projects to 244.12 yards and 1.39 touchdowns against a tough San Francisco defense today. If the Lions want to win this game, the run game will surely be important, but so will the play of Goff. I'll back him in this spot to put up some numbers and at least allow the Lions to hang around in this one.
Deebo Samuel - WR, $9,200 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 37 rushing attempts, 225 rushing yards, 91 targets, 62 receptions, 916 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR2: 17.6%
I'll take a look at Deebo Samuel next. Full disclosure, as mentioned above, I'm an Eagles fan. I wasn't all too thrilled to hear Deebo Samuel run his mouth all off-season about "should haves" and "would haves." However, what I can't be mad about is him backing up his words as Deebo went on a heater late in the season to lock the 49ers into the one seed. He's had a couple of injury-plagued weeks; including a two-reception, 24-yard performance against Green Bay last week. I think this one perhaps means more to him than anyone else. My model projects him to come up huge, going for 5.09 receptions on 6.02 targets, 89.98 yards from scrimmage, and 0.72 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: George Kittle, Sam LaPorta
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
David Montgomery - RB, $5,600 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 243 rushing attempts, 1,105 rushing yards, 29 targets, 20 receptions, 142 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 4.27%
I'm not quite sure what the DFS sites, particularly DraftKings, were thinking when they priced Montgomery this low. Perhaps they wanted to give us a free square in the value slot. I understand that Montgomery is no longer receiving the lion's share (no pun intended) of touches out of the backfield for Detroit anymore, but he's still their primary short-yardage running back and should see a lot of work once the Lions get down to the red zone. My model projects Montgomery to run the ball 12.4 times for 42.1 yards while adding 1.85 receptions on 2.25 targets for 13.26 yards, and 0.48 total touchdowns. I think as long as this one stays inside one possession, the Lions will look to move the ball on the ground and keep San Francisco's explosive offense off the field.
Jameson Williams - WR, $3,800 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 47 targets, 28 receptions, 408 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR2: 15.11%
I'll wrap things up today with Jameson Williams. I backed Williams in the Divisional Round showdown against the Bucs, where he didn't do much catching just two of his four targets for 35 yards. Objectively speaking, he has perhaps the worst matchup of any Lions pass-catcher in this one, but with him already being the ultimate boom-or-bust value play I don't necessarily find that to be too important. I'll take a shot on him here as he projects to 2.14 receptions on 4.53 targets for 27.48 yards and 0.2 touchdowns. All he needs to do is creep behind the 49ers secondary once, and you'll be set.
Other Value Plays: Jauan Jennings, Jake Moody, Josh Reynolds
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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