RADIO
Week 4 of the NFL season is in the books, and now we shift our focus to Week 5 and what value plays we can find on the main slate in DFS competitions.
In this weekly piece, I will examine some undervalued sneaky targets. By selecting these players, you will have more flexibility in other positions to secure a high-end player elsewhere in your lineup. No matter what competition you are playing in DFS, finding a budget player with a safe floor and room for upside is the recipe for success.
I will include the DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) prices for each player in the main slate competition. However, when discussing which players are valued, I will focus primarily on their DraftKings price compared to other players on that platform. Even though both platforms have a few minor differences in scoring, a value is usually playable on any format given their relation to other highly priced players at their position.
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 5
Trevor Lawrence, IND at JAX | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,000
Lawrence has had a rough start to the season but has a favorable matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who have allowed the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Last week against Houston, the former No. 1 overall draft pick threw two scores for the first time this year, one each to his top wideouts, Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk.
The track record is tough to trust, but the value is there. With a strong wide receiver corps, Lawrence has an excellent opportunity to lead the Jaguars to their first victory of the season on Sunday and break out of his fantasy slump.
Geno Smith, NYG at SEA | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,400
Smith is leading the league in passing and still sits at a very reasonable price this weekend. Last week, Smith set a career-high in passing yards against a weak Detroit pass defense with 395 yards.
Geno Smith has become a must watch for QB play weekly.
Stand in tough w/ the pocket collapsing & pressuring flashing on the right. Dig the front foot in, all the torque from the back hip, and rip a seed into a tight window.
Definition of throwing with your chest, consistently. pic.twitter.com/YNFLvuJX6J
— Matt Lane (@Matty_KCSN) October 1, 2024
He has eclipsed 300 yards in two games this season and only fell under 250 yards once in the opener against Denver. Facing the New York Giants, Smith is a great floor play that always carries solid upside, given how heavily Seattle has relied on its passing game this season.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 5
Alexander Mattison, LV at DEN | DK: $5,200, FD: $5,800
The 26-year-old heard some positive news this week as his head coach, Antonio Pierce, expressed that he will be in line to see an increase in opportunities. While it is yet to be seen if that means he will be the workhorse, given his current price, he is shaping up to be a steal, even against a tough Denver defense.
Mattison has found the end zone in all but one game this season and has averaged 5.1 yards per carry. In the passing game, he ran at least 19 routes in two out of the four games this season and is averaging 11.4 yards per reception.
The matchup is not the best on paper, but given how poor the Raiders’ pass attack has been, Mattison could see a heavy workload and should easily outperform other players at his price.
Rhamondre Stevenson, MIA at NE | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,700
After averaging 19.3 PPR points in the first two weeks, Stevenson has tallied just 12.5 points in the past two weeks.
However, he has a great get-right matchup this week against the Miami Dolphins, who have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing RBs. Over the past four weeks, Stevenson has faced the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers, who have shut down the New England offense.
Last week, Tony Pollard tallied 88 yards on the ground against this week's Miami defense, and Zach Charbonnet ran for 91 the week prior.
Stevenson has seen double-digit attempts in all but one game this season and has seen five targets in two games. He has a three-down role and should be expected to return to the production he enjoyed over the first two weeks in a favorable setting.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 5
Jordan Whittington, GB at LAR | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,400
The rookie led all Ram wideouts with eight targets and six receptions in their loss to the Chicago Bears. Tutu Atwell led the team in yards.
In the absence of Puka Nacua (knee) and Cooper Kupp (ankle), Whittington has slowly increased his role in this offense. Seeing him lead the team in targets last weekend sets him up for a big day facing a weak Green Bay secondary.
The Rams will likely be trailing in this one (they sit as three-point underdogs), which should force Matthew Stafford to push the ball downfield through the air.
Rams often left Jordan Whittington as the isolated WR to his side
and let him work short to intermediate on crossers and inside breaking routes
remind you of anyone? pic.twitter.com/93rrw6fvk3
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) October 1, 2024
His teammate, Atwell, is also a great choice but is priced slightly higher.
Ja'Lynn Polk, MIA at NE | DK: $3,700, FD: $5,000
Polk, also a rookie, saw a career-high seven targets last week (which led the team) and is growing into the lead role in the New England passing attack. Even though Polk only caught three of those targets, seeing him get the most looks is very promising for his weekly value.
The risk is high with Polk, as the New England offense has sputtered at times, but the value for a potential WR1 on his team is worth a look this week, especially given his price.
Dontayvion Wicks, GB at LAR | DK: $5,000, FD: $5,900
Wicks stepped into a more significant role last weekend after Christian Watson (ankle) left the game with a presumed high ankle sprain. Wicks saw an eye-catching 13 targets in his absence but could only catch three of them. However, two of those found the end zone.
Over the final three weeks of the 2023 season (not counting Week 18, where Wicks did not play), the 23-year-old averaged 16.9 PPR points and was growing into a solid role in this young Green Bay offense.
With Jordan Love missing two games this season, Wicks has had a slow start to the campaign, but seeing him return to the high-level production he saw at the end of last season is a very good sign.
#GoPackGo WR target shares with Dontayvion Wicks on the field (2023-24)
😍 Dontayvion Wicks: 24%
⭐️ Jayden Reed: 17%
⚖️ Romeo Doubs: 16%
🤝 Tucker Kraft: 10%
🤮 Christian Watson: 2%
*approx. 400 routesI’m ALL IN on Wicks as a TOP-20 WR rest of season!pic.twitter.com/cadpGok62n
— FANTASY UMPIRE (@FantasyUmpire) October 2, 2024
At his price, Wicks is an absolute smash. He could be in line to lead the team in targets when facing a struggling Rams defense.
Christian Kirk, IND at JAX | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,100
After scoring just 4.9 PPR points across the first two weeks, the 27-year-old has gotten himself back on track, posting a 15.9 fantasy point performance in Week 3 and a 19.1 point showing last weekend.
Over these past two weeks, Kirk has seen double-digit targets in each of them and has caught at least seven passes. Faced with a weak Indianapolis defense, Kirk could be set up for another big day and is a sneaky stack with his quarterback, Trevor Lawrence.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 5
Tucker Kraft, GB at LAR | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,300
Another beneficiary of Christian Watson’s (ankle) absence could be tight end Tucker Kraft. In Jordan Love’s return, Kraft saw a season-high nine targets last Sunday and caught six of them for 53 yards and a score.
Kraft has seen twice as many snaps this season as Luke Musgrave and has thoroughly established himself as Green Bay’s starting tight end.
Kraft is an absolute smash at his current price. He has a favorable matchup against the Rams and could be in store for another big day, with Watson’s targets potentially up for grabs.
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