RADIO
Week 3 of the NFL season is in the books and now we shift our focus onto Week 4 and what value plays we can find on the main slate in DFS competitions.
In this weekly piece, I will examine some undervalued sneaky targets. By selecting these players, you will have more flexibility in other positions to secure a high-end player elsewhere in your lineup. No matter what competition you are playing in DFS, finding a budget player with a safe floor and room for upside is the recipe for success.
I will include the DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) prices for each player in the main slate competition. However, when discussing which players are valued, I will focus primarily on their DraftKings price compared to other players on that platform. Even though both platforms have a few minor differences in scoring, a value is usually playable on any format given their relation to other highly priced players at their position.
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!
Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 4
Caleb Williams, LAR at CHI | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,100
After failing to eclipse the 200-yard mark in his first two professional games, the former No. 1 overall pick threw for 363 yards with two scores in the loss to the Indianapolis Colts. While he did commit two turnovers, it was promising to see the USC product begin to showcase his elite potential as a passer.
In the opening game, Williams threw just 29 passes, then increased that to 37 in Week 2, and up to an eye-catching 52 last week. Most of this was due to the poor rushing attack in Chicago.
D'Andre Swift is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry, which has shifted the game plan to an air attack. His backup, Roschon Johnson, has averaged a slightly better 3.8 yards per carry.
Don’t listen to the click-baiters, Caleb Williams had plenty of NFL caliber throws in Week 3, especially on third down. The #DaBears currently rank 31st in rushing success rate and it’s put this offense in a lot of unfavorable situations. pic.twitter.com/snvCU97piN
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) September 25, 2024
Facing the Los Angeles Rams, who have allowed the fourth-highest passing yards per game (248.7), could set Williams up for another productive day through the air, especially if they cannot run the ball.
Andy Dalton, CIN at CAR | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,000
My other quarterback exceeded expectations last week after taking over starting duties in Carolina. Andy Dalton went 26-of-37 for 319 yards and three scores to lead the Panthers to their first victory of the season. Six of Dalton’s completions were over 20 yards.
Dalton can get some revenge this weekend over his former team, the Cincinnati Bengals, who could not contain rookie Jayden Daniels on Monday night. Daniels did not have to rely on his legs too heavily in that one. He went 21-of-23 for 254 yards and two scores.
Even though Dalton will be without his No. 2 wideout, Adam Thielen (hamstring), who hit the IR on Tuesday, he has a favorable matchup and should be set up for another successful day as a passer.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 4
Chuba Hubbard, CIN at CAR | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,500
Hubbard saw a season-high 21 carries and tied a season-high five targets last weekend to total 170 all-purpose yards. This starkly contrasted with the 98 yards he tallied through the first two weeks combined. Much of this was credited to veteran Andy Dalton's improved quarterback play over Bryce Young.
After last week’s performance, Hubbard established himself as the clear workhorse back in this offense and should be priced more accordingly. In addition, the better offensive environment should put Hubbard in favorable situations.
Sitting at a $5,700 salary on DraftKings is a great value for a running back who should see over 20 touches with the upside for receiving work and goal-line opportunities, as he saw two carries within the 10-yard line last week.
Carson Steele, KC at LAC | DK: $5,500, FD: $5,800
My other running back is also priced way too low for the lead runner on one of the best offenses in the sport. Last weekend, in Isiah Pacheco’s (fibula) absence, Steele led the Kansas City backfield in total snaps (46 to Samaje Perine’s 26) and attempts with 17 (to Perine’s six).
This is a great sign, as many expected the former undrafted rookie to be eased into NFL action and that Perine would take the short-term lead as the veteran. However, this was not the case, as Steele was given almost complete control.
In addition, the UCLA product saw five carries inside the 5-yard line, which shows that the coaching staff trusts Steele in scoring opportunities. With his price sitting in the RB3 range, he is a screaming value against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 4
Rome Odunze, LAR at CHI | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,400
After Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Brian Thomas Jr. had their breakout games, fellow rookie Rome Odunze was quiet through the first two weeks. That changed in Week 3 when the Washington product caught six of his 11 targets for a team-high 112 yards and a score.
Through the first two weeks, Odunze caught just four total passes for 44 yards on nine targets. While the heavy target share was helped by Keenan Allen (heel) not being in the lineup, it was promising to see Odunze’s raw potential begin to shine at the professional level.
After 3 weeks of play, there’s only one WR who has had +278 air yards, 1 TD, and reached a max speed of 21.9 MPH…
Bears rookie WR, Rome Odunze👀 pic.twitter.com/aVIWUxAe8a
— Bartholomew Willijax (@B_Willijax) September 25, 2024
Under the hood, the former ninth overall pick has held a 15.8 aDOT and has been targeted on 28.2% of his routes, which are both among the highest metrics at his position.
Even if Allen can suit up, Odunze and his fellow rookie quarterback are establishing a connection, and do not be surprised if Odunze is priced much higher next week.
Courtland Sutton, DEN at NYJ | DK: $5,300, FD: $5,500
Sutton has seen double-digit targets in two games this season but finally had a productive game in the box score last weekend as rookie Bo Nix had the best game of his young career.
Nix went 25-of-36 for 216 yards and added 47 on the ground. His top wideout benefited, as he caught seven of his 11 targets for 68 yards.
Sutton saw double-digit targets in the season opener but could only catch four for a mere 38 yards. Seeing him not only receive the vast majority of targets in this offense but also get looks downfield (42.6% of the team’s air yards) all suggest his production should continue to climb.
This weekend, he will face a Jets defense that has surprisingly struggled against wide receivers this year, as it surrendered 24.7 PPR points to Calvin Ridley in Week 2 and 14.8 PPR points to Demario Douglas last week. With the Jets being favored, Nix may have to play catch-up in this one, which bodes well for Sutton’s game script.
Darnell Mooney, NO at ATL | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,700
After a poor showing in Week 1 (the entire Atlanta offense did, for that matter), the former Chicago Bear has seen at least seven targets in the past two games and has averaged 77 receiving yards.
Last week against Kansas City, Mooney caught an impressive eight balls on eight targets, compared to the prior week when he only caught three of seven targets. Kirk Cousins is working his way back from a torn Achilles, and the growing pains are evident as the Falcons offense has stumbled at times.
Through the first three weeks, Mooney looks more like a 1B to Drake London’s 1A, which has surprised many, and he has emerged as a legitimate flex option in standard leagues.
Darnell Mooney’s reception prop was O/U 2.5…
He has three in the first quarter 💰 pic.twitter.com/BpxkaLSx7H
— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) September 23, 2024
This weekend, he faces a tough New Orleans defense. However, if the Saints put points on the board, Atlanta will be forced to throw more than it would like, and his target share so far suggests Mooney could be a beneficiary of that.
Demario Douglas, NE at SF | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,100
After catching just two passes in the first two weeks, Douglas was very productive in a Week 3 loss to the New York Jets, as he saw nine targets and brought in seven of them for 69 yards. He also had one carry for nine yards.
Even though his production was relatively poor through the first two weeks, Douglas was deployed as the top wideout in the New England offense as he logged the second-highest snap counts through the first two games. In Week 3, he had a slight majority of 39 compared to K.J. Osborn, who had 36.
Facing a San Francisco team that struggled to contain Tutu Atwell last week, Douglas could provide a safe floor but also a decent amount of upside as he is emerging as the go-to option for Jacoby Brissett.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 4
Zach Ertz, WSH at ARI | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,100
The veteran has seen his reception total climb every week and had a season-high five catches on Monday evening against the Cincinnati Bengals. Jayden Daniels took a significant step forward as a passer in that game, which should boost all his pass-catchers.
While the Commanders still need a clear No. 2 option, Ertz has proved he can be a reliable option in the middle of the field in the short term. The Commanders offense has not punted once in the past two games and now faces a weak Cardinals defense.
Mike Gesicki, CIN at CAR | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,600
Even with Tee Higgins' return on Monday night, Gesicki still saw his typical five targets in a loss to the Washington Commanders. He caught four of them for 47 yards.
In Week 2, he saw a season-high nine targets, but that number was due for a drop. However, his production was still solid in a more crowded passing attack with the return of Higgins to the lineup.
Gesicki runs routes deep down the field with an average of 4.33 yards per route run, which places him at the top of his position. Facing a Carolina team that has struggled to defend the pass, Joe Burrow could be in store for a big day, and Gesicki should be a reliable option for him all afternoon.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
