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We're on to week 4, RotoBallers, and we're here to guide you through the fourth week of the season and find the sneakiest sleeper values to help you take down your favorite contest. If you're playing cash games, you don't have to have the top QB or RB of the week. But in Guaranteed Prize Pool's (GPP's)? The best way to go is to focus on players with the highest potential upside for their DFS price.
This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS (based on DraftKings salaries) for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must.
It's crucial to prioritize players with higher guaranteed floors and consistency to increase our chances of winning cash games. No matter which game you choose, these picks will come in handy. So, without further ado, let's dive in!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 4
Jimmy Garoppolo, LV @ LAC | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,900
At $5,300 on DraftKings, you may have to hold your nose and click the lock button on Jimmy G. The over/under on their matchup with the Chargers is 49.5, and with the Chargers allowing an average of 359.67 yards per game this season, Garoppolo won't have a problem hitting his value (18-20 points should do it).
Garoppolo has six interceptions three games into the 2023 campaign. Still, the Chargers have picked off just two passes this season, so if the Raiders QB can keep mistakes to a minimum, he can be part of a sneaky tournament stack this weekend versus the Bolts on the road.
Kenny Pickett, PIT @ HOU | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,800
Pickett and the 2-1 Steelers face the 1-2 Houston Texans on the road this Sunday; RotoBaller projections have Pickett with 18 points this week and a possible ceiling of 31. Despite Pittsburgh's team total being just 22.5, Houston has allowed 24.3 points per game this season, with a completion percentage of 73.2%, and 28 points allowed in both losses. Pickett is a great value this week and tournament play if the Steelers score more than their projected team total.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 4
Zack Moss, IND vs. LAR | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,300
Moss has shown that he is capable of producing big fantasy numbers when given the opportunity. In week 3, he rushed for 122 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries versus Baltimore and added two receptions for 25 DK fantasy points. Moss is expected to be the lead running back for the Indianapolis Colts again this week against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams have a solid run defense but are also susceptible to giving up big plays. Moss has the potential to break off a long run or two in this game, which could lead to a big fantasy day.
Javonte Williams, CHI vs. DEN | DK: $5,500, FD: $0
Williams has not produced as much as expected through the season's first three weeks. He has just 134 rushing yards and two touchdowns while not catching any passes. Nevertheless, Williams has a favorable matchup this week against the Chicago Bears, who have allowed the most rushing yards and touchdowns to opposing running backs. Williams, a dual-threat running back, was targeted 12 times in the first three games and could add value in the passing game.
Jaylen Warren, PIT @ HOU | DK: $5,000, FD: $0
Pittsburgh is looking more and more like one of my favorite tournament stacks, even with an implied total of 22 points. Warren and the Steelers have a great matchup on the road against the Texans this week. The running back has seen his role in the Steelers' offense increase over the past two weeks and has averaged 44% of the snaps and 10.5 touches per game, with three receptions for 23 yards in week 3.
The Texans allow the fifth-most fantasy points and third-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. They are also ninth in the NFL in yards per reception allowed to running backs. At $5,000, Warren is a great value back this week versus the Texans in Houston.
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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 4
George Pickens, PIT @ HOU | DK: $5,400, FD: $7,100
Another piece for my Steelers tournament stack this week: Pickens has a good matchup this week against the Texans, who have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Houston allows an average of 308 passing yards per game and has given up 10 passing touchdowns.
Pickens, a physical receiver who is a big play threat, has caught 11 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown in his first three games. He has caught 50% of his targets and been targeted for 67% of passes in the red zone. Pickett, Pickens, and Moss will be an unconventional stack for me this week versus the Texans.
Courtland Sutton, DEN @ CHI | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,100
Sutton is currently the number one wide receiver for the Broncos, with 17 catches for 189 yards and two touchdowns through three weeks. He has led the team in target share and air-yard share for the past two weeks and is the Broncos' leading receiver in both catches and yards.
This week, the Broncos will face the Bears. Chicago has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, allowing 9.1 yards per pass attempt, giving Sutton a great chance to put up big numbers. Could Denver be a viable tournament stack? I say, "Yes'!
Brandin Cooks, DAL vs. NE | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,400
What is one way Bill Belichick gives his opponents headaches? He takes away their best weapon. In this weekend's matchup in Dallas, the weapon he'll be looking to remove will be CeeDee Lamb. If Lamb fails to be open for most of the game, that will leave Cooks, among others, to up his production and find his way into the end zone.
Cooks has struggled to get involved in the Cowboys' offense so far this season, with only four catches for 39 yards in two games. However, the Cowboys will involve him more in the offense moving forward, and with Cooks' big-play upside, he is a great tournament play this week at $4,900.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 4
Pat Freiermuth, PIT @ HOU | DK: $3,400, FD: $3,600
Yes, another Steeler to add to my possible stacks. The athletic, third-year tight end is coming off his best game of the season in week 3, catching three of four targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. He has been the Steelers' most-targeted player in the red zone, with five targets in the first three weeks of the season.
The Steelers are playing the Houston Texans this week, a great matchup for Freiermuth. Houston has given up the most DraftKings points to tight ends this season, and they are also allowing the second-most receiving yards.
Durham Smythe, MIA @ BUF | DK: $3,000, FD: $4,600
Smythe is $3,000 on DraftKings and $4,600 on FanDuel, which is affordable for a tight end with a great chance of putting up solid fantasy numbers. This season, Smythe has been a reliable target for Tua Tagovailoa in the Miami Dolphins passing game. He has caught 10 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown in the first three games.
This week, the Dolphins play the Buffalo Bills, who have a tough defense. However, the Bills have also been vulnerable to tight ends this year, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends through the first three weeks. Stacking Smythe with Tua and one of the usual, speedy suspects of Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle could make for a slightly different, chalky tournament stack.
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