RADIO
Week 2 of the NFL season is in the books and now we shift our focus onto Week 3 and what value plays we can find on the main slate in DFS competitions.
In this weekly piece, I will examine some undervalued sneaky targets. By selecting these players, you will have more flexibility in other positions to secure a high-end player elsewhere in your lineup. No matter what competition you are playing in DFS, finding a budget player with a safe floor and room for upside is the recipe for success.
I will include the DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) prices for each player in the main slate competition. However, when discussing which players are valued, I will focus primarily on their DraftKings price compared to other players on that platform. Even though both platforms have a few minor differences in scoring, a value is usually playable on any format given their relation to other highly priced players at their position.
Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 3
Sam Darnold, HOU at MIN | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,100
Sam Darnold looked quite sharp in his first taste of the Kevin O’Connell system at the Giants. Last week against the tough San Francisco defense, he threw for 268 yards and two scores. Through the first two weeks, he has averaged 9.5 yards per attempt (YPA) with a 72.0% completion rate.
Sam Darnold dropping BOMBS
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 15, 2024
This weekend, he faces the Houston Texans, who have allowed the 23rd-most points to quarterbacks on DraftKings scoring. Playing in a dome against one of the best quarterbacks in the sport could quickly turn this game into a shootout.
Gardner Minshew II, CAR at LV | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,200
My other quarterback has one of the best matchups on the slate: Gardner Minshew. Like Darnold, Minshew has looked comfortable in his new system and has produced a solid fantasy stat line in both games.
In an upset victory over the Baltimore Ravens, Minshew threw for 276 yards and a score while feeding his two primary pass-catchers, Davante Adams and Brock Bowers.
The Panthers have struggled more against the run than they have against the pass (more on that later), but the opposing team is more often than not running out the clock and not pushing the ball downfield late in the game. Given the matchup, Minshew is a great value and is worth stacking with either Adams or Bowers.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 3
Zamir White, CAR at LV | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,000
White has had an underwhelming start to the 2024 campaign but has a great matchup this week to get himself back on track.
This weekend, the No. 1 back in Las Vegas lines up against the Carolina Panthers, who have surrendered the 29th-most points to running backs this season on DraftKings. Despite his struggles and poor output, White saw the vast majority of carries in Week 2, and fantasy players should expect that trend to continue.
White should see most snaps this weekend and be in prime red-zone position throughout the afternoon.
Tony Pollard, GB at TEN | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,800
Our next two running backs share an equal DraftKings price but are quite undervalued compared to other players at his position.
Tony Pollard has established himself as the clear lead back in Tennessee and is underpriced on this weekend’s slate. Through the first two weeks, the former Cowboy has seen 16 and 17 attempts, respectively, to go along with four and six targets. In addition, he has seen all but one red-zone rushing attempt (the other went to Tyjae Spears).
Tony Pollard the Titan!
📺: #TENvsCHI on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/gFFLVKU9pG— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
This weekend, he will face the Green Bay Packers, who have had trouble stopping the run. The volume is there for a safe floor, and the upside is possible for another double-digit fantasy game.
Zach Charbonnet, MIA at SEA | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,700
Zach Charbonnet had a modest output last weekend but is worth considering in Week 3. Charbonnet was given the lead role in Week 2 as Kenneth Walker III (oblique) was ruled out.
The Seahawks are reportedly taking “extreme caution” with Walker’s injury, which could keep him sidelined for at least another week. Charbonnet logged 63 total snaps and saw 14 attempts and five targets through the air. We should expect a similar workload against a Miami defense that could not stop James Cook last Thursday night.
Justice Hill, BAL at DAL | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,300
The final running back could benefit heavily from the potential game script this weekend. Justice Hill has been deployed in almost all passing situations and could be involved in a high-scoring affair on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys.
In fact, throughout the first two weeks, Hill has logged more snaps than Derrick Henry. While it should not be expected to remain that way throughout the season, Week 3 could be another game where Hill is the featured back.
Hill saw an eye-catching eight targets against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1. Playing against the Cowboys, the Ravens may need to lean on their passing game again, especially if Dallas puts points on the board.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 3
Demarcus Robinson, SF at LAR | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,100
If you had told me a few weeks ago that Demarcus Robinson has a great chance to lead the Rams in targets in Week 3, I would have said you were absurd. Well, here we are.
Robinson stands alone in a depleted wide receiver room that lost Puka Nacua (knee) and Cooper Kupp (ankle) to significant injuries. Last week, Robinson led the team in targets and should be well-positioned to do so again against the 49ers.
Tank Dell, HOU at MIN | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,200
After posting a respectable 40 yards in the season opener, Dell had a quiet night in the Week 2 victory over the Chicago Bears.
This is an excellent opportunity to get the 24-year-old at a very reasonable price. Despite the poor box scores, Dell has seen an average of 72.0 air yards per game and a strong 13.1 aDOT, both well above the average marks at the position.
Maybe I'm being stubborn, but not throwing in the towel on Tank Dell.
* Has run 66 routes on 77 Stroud dropbacks
* Been schemed 5 carries
* Has a reasonable 16.1% target share
* 14.4 aDOT is 16th among 84 qualifying WRs
* Narrative far different if he makes these two plays: pic.twitter.com/DgpLuVn4IQ— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 16, 2024
Going against the Minnesota Vikings, Dell could have a favorable game script in a potential high-scoring affair. Seeing C.J. Stroud give him looks downfield is very promising, and he is due for a breakout game.
Greg Dortch, DET at ARI | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,100
Arizona's slot receiver was poised for another strong outing in Week 2, but the Cardinals made quick work of the Rams after going up three scores in the first half. Dortch has another favorable matchup this weekend against the Detroit Lions.
In Week 1, Dortch saw a hefty eight targets his way, but that number plummeted to two this past weekend. I am willing to bet that the game script had much to do with this and that the Cardinals were not relying on the passing game against a non-competitive Rams team.
Facing a Lions team that threw the ball 55 times in Week 2 could be what Dortch needs to get back on track.
Note: His teammate, No. 2 receiver Michael Wilson, is also a great value.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 3
Jonnu Smith, MIA at SEA | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,000
Jonnu Smith saw a team-high seven targets in the Week 2 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Smith was the lone tight end that had any significant impact in the game and could be poised for another productive week against the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks allowed Hunter Henry to top 100 yards on eight catches last week, and seeing Smith’s heavy volume in Week 2 is a promising sign. With Skylar Thompson slotted to serve as the QB1 in Miami, he could lock onto Smith as a safety valve in the middle of the field and provide a solid floor.
Luke Schoonmaker, BAL at DAL | DK: $3,300, FD: $4,900
The final tight end to look at is Luke Schoonmaker of the Dallas Cowboys. This depends on Jake Ferguson’s (knee) status before the weekend as he recovers from a knee injury.
In Ferguson’s absence, Schoonmaker saw six targets and caught all of them for 43 yards in a blowout loss to the Saints. While he was running routes deep downfield, he was still earning consistent looks from his quarterback. His ceiling is not high, and he will need a score to have a high output.
He will face a Baltimore defense that has struggled to stop the tight end, as rookie Brock Bowers torched it for 98 yards last week. While Schoonmaker should not be expected to come near that total, he should see a stable number of looks in the short game. If you are looking for the cheapest TE1 with a reliable floor this weekend, take a flier on the Michigan product.
Note: Jake Ferguson returned to practice on Wednesday and could return on Sunday. Continue to monitor his status before kickoff.
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