Week 13 of the NFL season is in the books, and now we shift our focus to Week 14 and what value plays we can find on the main slate in DFS competitions.
In this weekly piece, I will examine some undervalued sneaky targets. By selecting these players, you will have more flexibility in other positions to secure a high-end player elsewhere in your lineup. No matter what competition you are playing in DFS, finding a budget player with a safe floor and room for upside is the recipe for success. I will include the DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) prices for each player in the main slate competition.
If you have any questions on how to navigate the slate and other fantasy sports questions, feel free to follow me on X @A_Smith_FS and send me a message. In addition, be sure to use code "SMITH" to get a 10% discount on any premium package.
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 14
Will Levis, JAX at TEN | DK: $5K FD: $6.6K
Despite a tough loss to the Washington Commanders, Will Levis threw for two scores for the second straight contest and third time over his past four games. During this four-game stretch, Levis has shown great improvement.
He has averaged a solid 240.0 passing yards per game with a 7:2 TD:INT ratio, a stark improvement from the 5:7 TD:INT he held in the first half of the season.
This weekend, he has an excellent matchup on the slate: the Jaguars, who have allowed the second-most PPR points to opposing quarterbacks. While Levis may struggle at times throughout the game, he has shown solid upside over the past four weeks (averaged 20.7 PPR points per game) and could shine once again in a favorable matchup.
Matthew Stafford, BUF at LAR | DK: $5.7K, FD: $7.2K
While his matchup against a tough Buffalo defense is not ideal, Matthew Stafford may have to push the ball downfield to keep up with a high-powered Buffalo offense.
Since Week 8, Stafford has averaged a robust 265.2 passing yards per game and thrown at least two passing scores in all but one game. In addition, during this span, he has thrown at least four scores in two contests.
Matthew Stafford connects with Demarcus Robinson for the TD. 🔥
(🎥: @NFL)pic.twitter.com/QSHfWZzWrv
— theScore Bet (@theScoreBet) December 1, 2024
Even though the Bills have allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points to opposing quarterbacks, with a hefty 49-point total, this game could easily open up, setting Stafford up for another strong fantasy showing.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 14
Tyrone Tracy Jr., NO at NYG | DK: $5.8K, FD: $6.6K
The rookie continued to see a heavy workload during the Week 13 loss to the Dallas Cowboys and is shaping up to be a great value play this weekend against the New Orleans Saints.
Since Week 8, Tracy has averaged an impressive 14.5 PPR points per game with 77.6 rushing and 14.0 receiving yards per game. Given his three-down role in the New York offense, Tracy should have a great opportunity to succeed facing the Saints, who have allowed the sixth-most PPR points to opposing RBs this season.
D'Andre Swift, CHI at SF | DK: $5.7K, FD: $6.3K
During Weeks 4 through 9, D'Andre Swift was shaping up to showcase his RB1 upside, as he averaged a stellar 20.9 PPR points during this span. However, since then, Swift has averaged a mere 10.7 PPR points per game, but he has a great opportunity to get back on track this weekend.
On Sunday, he will face the San Francisco 49ers, who have allowed the fourth-most PPR points to opposing RBs this season.
.@DAndreSwift 39 yards to the house 💨
📺: #GBvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/Rv0MwIVSaa
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 17, 2024
While his recent box-score production has been underwhelming, he still sees double-digit attempts each game with just under 3.0 targets per game, suggesting a turnaround could be right around the corner.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 14
Jakobi Meyers, LV at TB | DK: $5.6K, FD: $6.7K
Despite Las Vegas’ struggles, Jakobi Meyers has continued to produce from a fantasy standpoint and is once again very undervalued during Week 14. This weekend, he is facing a weak Tampa Bay secondary that has allowed the eighth-most PPR points to opposing wideouts.
Jakobi Meyers with back to back big catches pic.twitter.com/QzLXRD5TgF
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) November 29, 2024
Since Week 8, the veteran wideout has averaged 10.0 targets per game and scored 16.5 PPR points per game. Facing a weak secondary, Meyers has a much higher ceiling and a very high floor.
Jauan Jennings, CHI at SF | DK: $5.2K, FD: $6.4K
Despite pacing San Francisco pass-catchers again, Jennings had a modest output during the Week 13 loss to the Buffalo Bills. In this game, Jennings tallied just 56 yards off three passes.
However, since Week 10, Jennings has seen an average of 8.5 targets per game, which is the highest on the team. In addition, he has eclipsed double-digit targets twice in this span.
Given his hefty target share, Jennings should be in a good position to outperform his salary, despite facing a tough Chicago defense. This is especially true with Christian McCaffrey (knee) likely done for the season as the 49ers will likely put the ball in the air more often.
Darnell Mooney, ATL at MIN | DK: $5.5K, FD: $5.9K
The Falcons offense has stumbled over the past few weeks, which has greatly hindered Darnell Mooney’s fantasy production. Over his past two games, he has totaled just 9.7 PPR points with a mere combined 47 receiving yards.
However, before this rough stretch, Mooney averaged an impressive 16.8 PPR points per game during Weeks 5 through 10.
While there is some risk in selecting Mooney based on the current trajectory of the Atlanta offense, facing a Minnesota secondary that has allowed the most PPR points to opposing wideouts opens the door for a big bounce-back showing for the 27-year-old.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 14
T.J. Hockenson, ATL at MIN | DK: $4.3K, FD: $6.3K
After enjoying a breakout outing in Week 12, when he tallied 114 yards on seven receptions, T.J. Hockenson took a steep step back last weekend, catching just three passes for 24 yards. However, he still saw six targets in this game, implying that this production should only improve from here.
Facing the Falcons, who have allowed the 17th-most PPR points to opposing TEs this season, sets Hockenson up for a nice rebound. Take the discount on a proven TE1.
Cade Otton, LV at TB | DK: $4.4K, FD: $5.6K
Similar to Hockenson, Cade Otton saw his typical target share last weekend but could not do much with it. Otton could only bring in four of his seven targets for a mere 20 yards.
This was his second straight disappointing showing, as he tallied just 30 yards in Week 12. However, Otton averaged 19.3 PPR points per game before this two-game skid during Weeks 7 through 10.
If you picked up Cade Otton off waivers, he’s rewarded you with TWO touchdowns!
(via NFL, FOX)
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) October 27, 2024
It is important to note that Otton’s target usage remained consistent through this stretch, as he only dropped below seven targets in one contest. Given his reliable usage, Otton could easily outperform his current salary facing the Raiders, who have allowed the fourth-most PPR points to opposing TEs.
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