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It’s finally here! Week 1 of the NFL season is right around the corner, and it is time to start getting your DFS lineups ready. Most of the discussion over the past few months has focused on season-long formats, but now it is time to shift some focus to weekly competitions.
In this weekly piece, I will examine some undervalued sneaky targets. By selecting these players, you will have more flexibility in other positions to secure a high-end player elsewhere in your lineup. No matter what competition you are playing in DFS, finding a budget player with a safe floor and room for upside is the recipe for success.
I will include the DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) prices for each player in the main slate competition. However, when discussing which players are valued, I will focus primarily on their DraftKings price compared to other players on that platform. Even though both platforms have a few minor differences in scoring, a value is usually playable on any format given their relation to other highly-priced players at their position.
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 1
Gardner Minshew II, LV at LAC| DK: $5,300, FD: $6,800
Starting this list is one of the cheaper starting quarterbacks on the slate in Gardner Minshew. Minshew was surprisingly named the starting quarterback of the Raiders over Aidan O'Connell.
Minshew started for Indianapolis for most of 2023 as Anthony Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Minshew flashed some upside down the stretch as he averaged 17 fantasy points over the final seven games, with a high of 23.8 points in Week 13.
Playing in a dome against a Chargers team with a new head coach could present a potential shootout opportunity. While Jim Harbaugh should be expected to shape up the Chargers defense, they allowed the 24th-most points to QBs last season on DraftKings.
With Davante Adams as his alpha wideout, Minshew could have enough upside to warrant a play in most competitions, especially given his price.
Jayden Daniels, WSH at TB | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,000
My other value quarterback is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Jayden Daniels. The LSU product showcased his elite fantasy potential during the first two weeks of the preseason by going 12-of-15 with 123 yards in the air and 16 yards with a score on the ground.
JAYDEN DANIELS WITH A 42 YARD DIME TO Dyami Brown
pic.twitter.com/EzDDvo68C6— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) August 10, 2024
The Buccaneers were the 25th-best matchup for quarterbacks last season on DraftKings, and with his rushing upside, Daniels could smash in the opening week and will not cost you as much compared to other rushing QBs such as Kyler Murray ($6,400 on DK) and Anthony Richardson ($6,300 on DK).
Daniels is not only worth a look as your quarterback but could also be a favorable stack with wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who should be the clear leader in the receiver room.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 1
Jerome Ford, DAL at CLE| DK: $5,500, FD: $6,200
According to Adam Schefter, Nick Chubb (knee) will remain on the PUP list, keeping him sidelined for at least the first four weeks of the regular season. In addition, D'Onta Foreman was recently released, which now leaves just two healthy running backs on the Cleveland depth chart entering Week 1.
Insert Jerome Ford, who now has a path to see the vast majority, if not all, running back touches next week as they host the Dallas Cowboys. While the matchup against a high-powered Cowboys defense could be better, the sheer volume Ford will see makes him an intriguing target, especially at his low cost compared to other workhorse RBs.
¡50 YARD TD FOR JEROME FORD!#Jets 14-34 #Browns pic.twitter.com/PIdh2GTOTu
— Crazy NFL (@NFLCrazy_) December 29, 2023
Ford had some ups and downs serving as the primary back last season in Cleveland but did flash upside, especially in the receiving game. In a game where the Browns may be trailing, Ford could be in for some valuable two-minute offense passing work.
Javonte Williams, DEN at SEA | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,100
Sharing identical pricing as Ford on DraftKings and $100 cheaper on FanDuel, the primary back in the Mile High City could be in store for a big game on Sunday.
The UNC product has been receiving high praise from the coaching staff all summer, and his limited preseason usage suggests that he is the leading running back in the room entering Week 1.
On DraftKings last season, Seattle surrendered the 30th-most points to running backs. While it is vital not to put too much weight into previous seasons, it is still worth noting as that was a major struggle for it last year.
While rookie Bo Nix has looked quite sharp in the preseason and secured the starting job, Sean Payton may prefer to lean a bit heavier on the run game during his regular-season debut. This should set up Williams for a heavy workload with several opportunities near the red zone.
Chuba Hubbard, CAR at NO| DK: $5,300, FD: $5,600
Another sneaky volume play, Hubbard should be in line to see the vast majority of carries in the season opener. Jonathon Brooks (knee) hit the PUP list on Tuesday morning and will now miss at least the first four weeks of the season, and veteran Miles Sanders typically played with the second team during the preseason, which sets up Hubbard to be the lead on Sunday.
Hubbard ran for 903 yards last season and added 233 through the air. While his touchdown opportunities were very scarce, newly hired head coach Dave Canales hopes to bring a spark to the Panthers offense. In addition, second-year quarterback Bryce Young has looked solid during the preseason, and a step forward from him will be even better for Hubbard’s weekly potential.
While his upside may not be as high as that of Williams or Ford, his price makes him a great value knowing he will see the vast majority of touches this week, including near the goal line.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 1
Brian Thomas Jr., JAX at MIA| DK: $4,700, FD: $5,100
Our first wide receiver option comes from the highest O/U point totals of the week. First, LSU rookie Brian Thomas Jr. has been making headlines throughout camp and looks like a bargain play in a potential shootout against the Miami Dolphins.
The 21-year-old will likely play alongside Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis in the opening week but may have the chance to showcase his big-play ability. He has elite speed and led the nation in touchdowns last season, playing alongside Malik Nabers.
Brian Thomas Jr. is SOO MUCH MORE than just deep threat. He has shown off his underappreciated route running all training camp and preseason. He isn’t just a fast guy who can get open. His ability to know WHEN HE IS OPEN is special. You got one Jags fans.
pic.twitter.com/KBiKWrG36m— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) August 24, 2024
In the preseason, he flashed his upside by catching a 41-yard pass. Slotting in a rookie wideout who is behind veterans on the depth chart may be risky. However, playing against the high-powered Miami offense, the Jaguars could find themselves in a shootout, and Thomas could provide elite speed to match Miami.
Pairing Thomas with Trevor Lawrence is a viable bring-back stack this weekend.
Tank Dell, HOU at IND| DK: $5,500, FD: $6,400
While he may be the No. 3 option on the Houston depth chart, Dell has a nose for the end zone. In the 11 games he played in last season, Dell crossed the goal line seven times with 709 yards.
However, the Texans brought in veteran Stefon Diggs in the offseason, and Nico Collins is continuing to develop into a star wide receiver, which will limit Dell’s weekly floor from a target perspective.
However, when looking at his production from a DFS perspective, the 24-year-old could enjoy numerous spike weeks, and his Week 1 matchup is shaping up to be just that. With a hefty 49 O/U point spread on DraftKings, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson could light up the scoresheet on Sunday afternoon.
Tank Dell’s routes are crispy 🔥 pic.twitter.com/MOdoHKEa6m
— Jordan Pun (@Texans_Thoughts) August 22, 2024
Feel comfortable slotting Dell into your lineup, even if he only sees five to six targets in a game. Two of them may be in the end zone.
Jalen Tolbert, DAL at CLE| DK: $3,400, FD: $4,700
The final wide receiver I want to discuss is Jalen Tolbert of the Dallas Cowboys. Tolbert was surprisingly kept out of all preseason action, which is a telling sign that the 25-year-old could be in for a significant role this fall.
While he is still listed as the No. 3 option on the depth chart, he may eventually overtake veteran Brandin Cooks (knee), who is still dealing with a lingering knee injury. Even if Cooks suits up, he may be limited given how much time he missed during camp.
With how poor the Cowboys running back room is in terms of talent, they may rely on Dak Prescott to drop back much more than they would like in the season opener. Being priced as a low-end WR3 on the slate makes Tolbert a great value play this week.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 1
Zach Ertz, WSH at TB| DK: $3,600, FD: $4,800
Veteran Zach Ertz could provide you with the safest floor for tight ends at an excellent value this week. With the Commanders still needing a bona fide WR2 and trading Jahan Dotson to the Eagles, Ertz has a path to seeing the second-most targets this week behind Terry McLaurin.
Last season, the Buccaneers allowed the 31st-most points to tight ends on DraftKings, and given the current shape of the Washington wide receiver room, Ertz could be in store for a big day. Expect several targets peppered his way with a high chance for them to be in the red zone.
Pat Freiermuth, PIT at ATL| DK: $4,400, FD: $5,300
The 25-year-old has a path to seeing the most targets on his team on Sunday afternoon. Outside of George Pickens, the Steelers' wide receiver room is decimated, which opens the door for Freiermuth to find a big role on this offense.
Playing against the revived Falcons offense, the Steelers could find themselves in a relatively high-scoring game despite having one of the top defenses in football. If Kirk Cousins can get the ball downfield consistently, the Steelers will need to stray away from the run game that they would prefer.
In addition, although Jaylen Warren (hamstring) is expected to be ready for Week 1, he may be slightly limited during parts of the game, which will present even more opportunities for Freiermuth. Feel confident selecting the Penn State product at this low cost as he should be more appropriately priced come Week 2.
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