RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's the showdown we've all been waiting for and certainly the most pivotal of all showdowns through this point of the season. We have Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings (14-2) taking on division rival Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (14-2). Not only is this game for the NFC North crown, but this game also decides the NFC's top seed and who carries home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Let's see how this one plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Vikings vs. Lions SNF DFS showdown slate on January 5. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jared Goff - QB, $14,400 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 4,398 passing yards, 36 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 33.05%
We'll start the slate off with Jared Goff. Goff has had another incredible year in a Lions uniform and looks to top it off by ensuring the NFC goes through Ford Field in Detroit. It's not an easy task against this Vikings team that went wire-to-wire with the Lions in Week 7. Goff played well in that game, throwing for 280 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but what can he do tonight with so much at stake?
Jared Goff has a 77% Comp pct and 90.9 QBR vs Vikings blitz under Brian Flores.
Lions scored 30+ in all 3 games
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) January 3, 2025
Well, my model projects Goff to throw for 278.96 yards and 1.51 touchdowns to just 0.76 interceptions.
Jordan Addison - WR, $11,100 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 93 targets, 62 receptions, 875 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR2: -2.8%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Jordan Addison next. I've written up Addison a few times over the past few weeks, and rightfully so, as he's been on a heater. Since Week 11, Addison has accumulated 41 receptions for 577 yards and seven touchdowns. That's a pretty insane run, and he gets to end his regular season against a banged-up Lions secondary.
Jordan Addison lulling the DB to sleep with patience on the double move pic.twitter.com/DyOUd9qtMR
— Receiver School (@ReceiverSchool) January 4, 2025
My model projects Addison to catch 4.41 of 6.65 targets for 62.46 yards and 0.51 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam Darnold
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Sam Darnold - QB, $9,400 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 4,153 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 64 rushing attempts, 202 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 21.85%
In a pair with Addison, I'll take a look at Sam Darnold. As I mentioned with Addison, this Lions' defense is banged up and is coming off of an outing where Brock Purdy threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns.
Darnold had a solid outing against a healthier Detroit defense in Week 7, throwing for 259 yards with a touchdown and interception. Darnold added another 39 yards on the ground in that one as well.
Tonight, my model has Darnold throwing for 297.03 yards and 1.81 touchdowns to just 0.32 interceptions.
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, $11,600 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 227 rushing attempts, 1,273 rushing yards, 58 targets, 47 receptions, 16 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 1.21%
We led off our Monday Night Football showdown with Jahmyr Gibbs in the 1.5x spot, where he delivered, running the ball for 117 yards on 18 attempts and a touchdown while adding four receptions and 46 yards on four targets. I have him ranked a bit lower tonight, mostly due to the fact I think this is going to be an air-raid showdown. With that said, this won't be a full fade of Gibbs in the captain/MVP spot.
My model projects Gibbs to run the ball 14.87 yards for 76.02 yards, adding 3.37 receptions on 4.33 targets for another 42.91 yards and 1.18 total touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Justin Jefferson, Amon-ra St. Brown, Aaron Jones
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
T.J. Hockenson - TE, $5,400 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 54 targets, 39 receptions, 446 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: -23%
I'll look at a pair of tight ends in the value spots, starting with T.J. Hockenson. Hockenson was not available the first time these two teams matched up, but he gets the matchup against Detroit at a good time.
While Hockenson isn't quite George Kittle, it is worth noting that Kittle caught each of his eight targets for 112 yards. Detroit ranks fourth in fantasy points allowed against tight ends this season but has ranked 29th in the same category over the past four weeks.
My model projects Hockenson to catch 4.33 of 5.36 targets for 46.81 yards and 0.33 touchdowns.
Sam LaPorta - TE, $5,800 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 76 targets, 53 receptions, 663 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: -6.9%
I'll wrap things up on this showdown with Sam LaPorta. Like Addison, LaPorta has been on quite the heater of late, logging at least 10 PPR fantasy points in six of his last seven games, including five straight. He's seen at least six targets in every game since Week 10, making him an excellent value play on this slate.
My model projects LaPorta to catch 5.44 of 6.72 targets for 56.12 yards and 0.41 touchdowns.
Other Value Options: Jake Bates, Will Reichard, Tim Patrick
Have a good week, everyone!
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