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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an interesting Monday Night Football matchup here as Will Levis and the Titans (1-2) head down to South Beach to take on Tyler Huntley and the Dolphins (1-2). The Miami Dolphins and their fans are hoping that the change in quarterback helps turn their season around, while fantasy owners are hoping for the same thing, with the likes of Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle waiting to explode. Let's see how this game shakes out.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Titans vs. Dolphins NFL DFS showdown slate on September 30. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts whenever you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
De'Von Achane - RB, Miami Dolphins - $15.9K (DK), $15.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 43 rushing attempts, 150 rushing yards, 19 targets, 17 receptions, 173 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -24.27%
I'll start things off on this slate with De'Von Achane. With Tyler Huntley under center, I believe Mike McDaniel will be drawing things up to get the ball to his stars tonight in the short and intermediate game. This includes the run game, where I believe Achane will be a factor.
The Titans come into this game ranked 23rd in defensive rushing DVOA, and dead last in DVOA against running backs in the passing game. It could be Achane's breakout game here in 2024, and my model projects him for 87.87 total yards and 0.63 touchdowns. Just 27.77 of those 87.87 yards are receiving, according to my model, but I anticipate he does a lot of work there in this one.
10. De’Von Achane vs TEN
12% Missed Tackle Percentage
- 6th best amongst all RBsSeason-high 74% snaps in Week 3.
16+ opportunities every game played.
QB change to Tyler Huntley will be a BIG HELP for Achane.
Mostert still questionable.
Top 10 RB 🚀pic.twitter.com/pvxju2PaIw
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) September 26, 2024
Tony Pollard - RB, Tennessee Titans - $15K (DK), $15K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 39 rushing attempts, 158 rushing yards, 14 targets, 11 receptions, 67 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 19.93%
I'll flip the field and look at the other top running back in this game, Tony Pollard. Pollard had a rough go of things in Week 1, but has since exploded in back-to-back weeks, logging 17 and 16 carries in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively.
Pollard now draws a strong matchup against the 31st-ranked rushing defense in terms of DVOA. With Will Levis's early struggles, I anticipate that both Pollard and Tyjae Spears have solid games. My model projects Pollard to run the ball 13.8 times for 65.08 yards while adding 1.46 receptions on 2.62 targets for 12.39 receiving yards and 0.45 total touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins D/ST, Calvin Ridley
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
DFS Flex Plays
Tyreek Hill - WR, Miami Dolphins - $11K (DK), $15K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 23 targets, 13 receptions, 194 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: 22.6%
I'll head back to the Dolphins' side of things with Tyreek Hill. As indicated in his targets-to-receptions ratio, it's been a tough go of things for the Cheetah, especially following the injury Tua Tagovailoa sustained in Week 2. Now it'll be Tyler Huntley under center, and while I don't anticipate Hill having a "WR1" type of week from a fantasy perspective, I have to imagine he takes a step forward.
He'll go against a Titans defense that struggles against opposing teams' top receivers. My model projects Hill to reign in 5.7 of 7.98 targets for 66.59 yards and 0.42 touchdowns. He's extremely pricey in this spot, but I think fantasy points will be scarce all around, so I have no problem having a decent amount of Cheetah exposure.
Calvin Ridley - WR, Tennessee Titans - $8.6K (DK), $10.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 16 targets, eight receptions, 136 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: 126.7%
I'll flip the field once again and look at the Titans' pseudo-top receiver Calvin Ridley. Ridley, like Pollard, had a relatively quiet Week 1, but has been trending upwards ever since. He netted just 50 yards on three receptions against the Bears in Week 3, but I was optimistic that he was able to garner looks, finishing the game with seven targets.
Only Malik Nabers has more air yards than Calvin Ridley.
47 players -- including Jalen Tolbert, Josh Reynolds, and Tutu Atwell -- have more receiving yards than Ridley.
You can watch every Ridley target here👇
He is getting behind defenses pretty regularly! pic.twitter.com/K3aMjSslMg
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 27, 2024
Ridley takes on a Dolphins defense that is the worst in football against the opposing team's top wide receivers, and projects to haul in 4.77 of 7.67 targets for 58.08 yards and 0.31 touchdowns. I'm not certain that Ridley is the Titans' top option, so I'll be relatively split between him and DeAndre Hopkins in this one.
Other Flex Options: Tyler Huntley, Jaylen Waddle, DeAndre Hopkins
DFS Value Plays
Miami Dolphins - D/ST - $4.2K (DK), $9.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 22 points per game allowed, six sacks, two interceptions, one fumble recovery.
I'll look at the Dolphins' defense as my first value play on this slate. The Dolphins have, to put it lightly, been pretty bad defensively through the first three weeks of the season, as indicated by their 30th-ranked defensive DVOA. However, taking on Will Levis and the Titans' offense has been feast mode for opposing defenses, as Levis has turned the ball over eight (!) times in three games alone. With a turnover-prone quarterback lining up against them, Miami's defense is a sneaky option to score a touchdown tonight.
Chigoziem Okonkwo - TE, Tennessee Titans - $3.6K (DK), $8K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: Seven targets, seven receptions, 46 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 16.9%
I'll wrap things up in this one with Chig Okonkwo. Okonkwo is a phenomenal athlete and always seems to break a big play out of nowhere. That came in the form of a touchdown last week against Chicago, and who knows, he could find the end zone once again this week against a Dolphins defense that ranks 21st in DVOA against tight ends. My model projects Okonkwo to catch 2.71 of his 4.62 targets for 27.74 yards and 0.13 touchdowns.
Other Value Plays: Tyjae Spears, Jonnu Smith, Jason Sanders, Tyler Boyd
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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