RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well so far. After last week's Packers/Bills showdown, we have an interesting Sunday Night Football matchup between two first-place teams, as the Tennessee Titans (5-2) head over to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs (5-2). These two teams have had plenty of bouts against each other over the last five years, both in the regular season as well as the AFC Playoffs. Let's take a look at how the slate breaks down.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Titans vs. Chiefs NFL DFS showdown slate on November 6th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $18,000 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,159 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, five interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 42.7% (1st), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 4.4% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes will be making his fourth start against the Titans in the last four years, and he's had some great success against them in the first three. He's thrown for 946 yards, six touchdowns, and just one interception. However, his worst game against Tennessee came last season, but I'll look past that given the strong passing funnel that my model is showing for Kansas City, with a projected pass DVOA of 34.59%.
Derrick Henry - RB, $16,200 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 166 rushing attempts, 755 rushing yards, 18 targets, 14 receptions, 140 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 0% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -5.8% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Derrick Henry. "Tractorcito" has played five games against the Chiefs since 2016, and has run for a 5.4 YPC on 103 carries and six touchdowns while averaging 111.4 yards per game in that span. He's been nothing short of awesome of late as well, coming off a 219-yard game against the Texans last week. The Chiefs have been up-and-down against the run this season, and my model gives the Titans a -2.91% rushing DVOA against them this evening. The Titans' offense goes as Henry goes, so I'll have a decent amount of shares of him at the 1.5x spot on both sites.
Other Captains/MVPs: Travis Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
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DFS Flex Plays
Ryan Tannehill - QB, $9,800 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,097 passing yards, six passing touchdowns, three interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 2.1% (19th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 12.6% (26th), per Football Outsiders.
Similar to how I wrote up Davis Mills for Thursday night's showdown, I'll do the same regarding Tannehill. Tannehill has been good against Kansas City since joining the Titans, logging a passer rating of 113.6 with five touchdowns and just one interception across the three matchups. The Titans have a strong rushing funnel here, though, and a projected passing DVOA of just 5.79%, but they will need Tannehill to move the ball to keep up with the Chiefs' electric offense. Note that Tannehill is a game-time decision as of now, and should Malik Willis start, I give a huge boost to Henry and will nearly completely fade the Titans' passing offense.
Travis Kelce - TE, $10,400 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 60 targets, 47 receptions, 553 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Zach Cunningham): 15% targets per route, 91% catch rate, 0.4 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll take a look at Travis Kelce to pair with Mahomes as well, of course. The Titans have done a decent job of slowing Kelce down since Patrick Mahomes has been under center, as he comes into this one averaging just 56.7 yards per game and just one touchdown over three games against Tennessee since Mahomes took the reigns. I say "just" as most tight ends would love to have stats like that over three games, but Kelce is different. I'll look for him to be different once again tonight, as the Chiefs have a projected DVOA of 41.26% at the tight end position tonight.
Other Flex Options: Robert Woods, Kadarius Toney, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, JuJu Smith-Schuster
DFS Value Plays
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - WR, $5,400 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 38 targets, 22 receptions, 369 yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs Roger McCreary): 13% target rate, 78% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
Beyond just looking at Kelce, I do like any and all Chiefs wide receivers tonight, given the previously mentioned passing funnel. MVS actually has the most favorable matchup of any Chiefs pass-catcher tonight, as Kansas City has a projected DVOA of 59.26% to the "#2 WR" position, according to my model. Partnered with a solid matchup against Roger McCreary, I'll look for MVS to have a big game, perhaps finding the end zone for the first time in the season.
Mecole Hardman - WR, $5,600 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 25 targets, 19 receptions, 218 yards, five touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Kristian Fulton): 13% target rate, 56% catch rate, 0.22 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
Finally, I'll talk about another Chiefs wide receiver, Mecole Hardman. I wouldn't necessarily call this an "either-or" play with MVS, as you are able to stack multiple pass catchers with Mahomes on either site tonight. While Valdes-Scantling has the best DVOA matchup of the night, Hardman isn't far behind, with a projected DVOA of 51.26%. He has a slightly worse matchup against Kristian Fulton, but shouldn't have too much of an issue in terms of getting targets tonight.
Other Value Plays: Chiefs D/ST, Nick Westbrook-Ikhene, Harrison Butker
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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