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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a Texas-sized matchup tonight as C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans (6-4) head to Dallas to take on Cooper Rush and the Cowboys (3-6). Both teams are missing some pieces tonight, most notably with Dak Prescott sidelined for the rest of the season for the Cowboys. Let's see how this one plays out.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Texans vs. Cowboys NFL DFS showdown slate on November 18. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts whenever you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Nico Collins - WR, Houston Texans - $15,6K (DK), $15K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 45 targets, 32 receptions, 567 receiving yards, three touchdowns
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs. WR1: 4.6%
I'll start this Monday Night Football slate off with Nico Collins. Collins, who hasn't played in six weeks, was on his way from a league-wide "WR1" in the season's first five games. He's been an optimal combination of volume and efficiency, and with all due respect to Trevon Diggs, is in a position to pick up right where he left off tonight.
Texans WR Nico Collins (hamstring) is "100% ready to go" for Monday. pic.twitter.com/vCzN0HLpGK
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 15, 2024
My model projects Collins to catch 5.89 of 9.06 targets for 88.6 yards and 0.49 touchdowns. Even if the Texans decide to "ease him back into things", he can do enough with limited opportunities to make rostering him in the 1.5x spot worth it. Take his Week 5 performance, for example, where he caught two passes for 78 yards and a touchdown before injuring his hamstring.
Joe Mixon - RB, Houston Texans - $16.5K (DK), $16.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 151 rushing attempts, 655 rushing yards, 24 targets, 16 receptions, 159 receiving yards, eight touchdowns
- Projected Rush DVOA: -3.17%
I'll stick with the Texans here and look at Joe Mixon next. Mixon is in a prime position to finish as the highest scorer on this slate and he is accurately priced. Dallas offers no resistance against running backs, ranking 28th in defensive rushing DVOA, and 32nd in defensive DVOA against running backs in the passing game.
Joe Mixon is heating up. 🚀
Since his return, he’s had 25+ touches in 4 of 5 games and topped 20 fantasy points in 3 of them.
Facing a Cowboys' D that’s 30th in run-stop win rate and allows the 5th-most fantasy points to RBs, Mixon could dominate again. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ruyPHSphv1
— Moody (@EricNMoody) November 16, 2024
My model projects Mixon for 19.82 carries for 96.32 yards, adding 2.55 receptions on 3.1 targets for 22.63 yards and 1.03 touchdowns. He's effectively in a game-proof script here, with the only limit to his ceiling being Dameon Pierce or Dare Ogunbowale dipping into his touches should the game get out of hand.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tank Dell, C.J. Stroud, Texans D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
CeeDee Lamb - WR, Dallas Cowboys - $10.8K (DK), $13.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 94 targets, 59 receptions, 681 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: 6.5%
I'll mention my only Cowboy on this slate next in CeeDee Lamb. Dallas as an offense (and an organization) is seemingly left in shambles following Dak Prescott's hamstring injury. And honestly, they were on their way there before the injury. The lone "shining star (see what I did there?) remains Lamb.
My model projects Lamb to catch 6.82 of 10.46 targets for 70.35 yards and 0.43 touchdowns tonight. While it was no surprise that Lamb's production took a hit last week with Cooper Rush and Trey Lance under center, it's worth mentioning that Lamb still saw 10 targets in that one.
Tank Dell - WR, Houston Texans - $9.4K (DK), $10.5 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 56 targets, 35 receptions, 394 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: 24%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Tank Dell next. Dell had stepped in and did well as the "last man standing" of the Texans' incredible wide receiver trio over the last few weeks, catching 15 of his 22 targets for 200 yards and a touchdown dating back to Week 8.
Tonight, my model projects Dell to catch 4.72 of 6.53 targets for 55.9 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. Should this one turn into a blowout, Dell's ceiling tonight would be limited, but I'm confident that Dell and the Texans' passing game will do more than enough to bring home the bacon.
Other Flex Options: Joe Mixon, C.J. Stroud
DFS Value Plays
Dalton Schultz - TE, Houston Texans - $5.0K (DK), $8.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 48 targets, 29 receptions, 310 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: -5.5%
I'll start my flex plays with Dalton Schultz. Unfortunately for Schultz, he has arguably the worst matchup of all the Texans pass catchers against Dallas, but we're looking at more of a revenge game factor here. Schultz, who played his first five seasons with the Cowboys, now lines up on the other sideline for the first time.
My model projects Schultz to catch 4.18 of 5.62 targets for 38.47 yards and 0.27 touchdowns. He hasn't found the end zone yet this season, though I believe in a rematch against his former team, he'll find that first one tonight.
Texans - D/ST, Houston Texans - $6.2 (DK), $9.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 22.6 points per game allowed, 29 sacks, 13 interceptions, five fumble recoveries.
I'll wrap things up with the Texans defense tonight. I suppose this isn't much of a value play on DraftKings, but I feel as though they're a must-play on this slate. While Cooper Rush will start the game for Dallas, who knows if he'll finish it. With Rush and Lance under center last week, Dallas nearly had more turnovers (5) than points (6). I expect more of the same tonight, and perhaps even a defensive touchdown for DeMeco Ryan's defense.
Other Value Plays: Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale, Dalvin Cook
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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