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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an interesting matchup here tonight. The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) will head to Vegas to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (1-1). It'll be the Steelers' second consecutive prime time matchup here, but this time they'll be without star wide receiver Diontae Johnson. We'll see how that affects our DFS lineups. Without further ado, let's get right to it.
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Steelers vs. Raiders Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on September 24. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Kenny Pickett - QB, $14,700 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 454 passing yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions.
- Projected Pass DVOA: -12.26%
I'll start things off tonight with Kenny Pickett. Pickett has clearly had a difficult start to the 2023 season. Fortunately for the QB, he takes on a Vegas defense that ranks 31st in DVOA and 26th in passing DVOA in particular. My model projects Pickett to throw for 240.49 passing yards and 2.09 touchdowns in this one. I truly do believe he takes a step forward here, and I think we're getting good value on him here price-wise.
Davante Adams - WR, $17,400 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 17 targets, 12 receptions, 150 receiving yards, one touchdown.
I'll take a look at Davante Adams as my secondary captain tonight. My model has Adams going nuclear tonight, catching 7.77 of his 9.69 targets for 98.41 receiving yards with a 68% chance of scoring a touchdown. The Steelers have been roughly in the middle of the pack against top receivers over the first two weeks of the season, bringing in a 31.87% DVOA against them while allowing 68 yards per game against them. With that said, I think the return of Jakobi Meyers opens up a potential huge night for Adams.
Other Captains/MVPs: Josh Jacobs, Jakobi Meyers, Allen Robinson
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DFS Flex Plays
Josh Jacobs - RB, $10,800 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 28 carries, 46 rushing yards, nine targets, seven receptions, 74 receiving yards.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -62.15%
I'll be attacking the Steelers' defense in this one, loading up on some Vegas offensive players. I'll take a look at Josh Jacobs next, despite the Raiders' abhorrent projected rushing DVOA. The reason is that my model has Jacobs logging a huge night on Sunday Night Football, toting the ball just over 15 times for 95.59 yards, as well as catching 2.4 passes for 18.85 yards and a 78% chance of finding the end zone. The Steelers rank 21st in rushing DVOA so far in 2023, making this a solid opportunity for the Raiders to get the ground game going.
Jakobi Meyers - WR $8,600 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 10 targets, nine receptions, 81 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
I brought up Jakobi Meyers in terms of him opening up the field for Davante Adams tonight, but Meyers is actually the one with a better matchup. The Steelers bring in an 89.9% DVOA against the WR2 position, which ranks ninth among all receivers playing this week. My model projects Meyers for 5.14 receptions on 7.09 targets for 57.81 yards and a 37% chance of finding the end zone. He actually has the second-best matchup of any player on the slate and could be a viable captain/MVP option if you want to pivot off of Adams.
Other Flex Options: Jimmy Garoppolo, Jaylen Warren
DFS Value Plays
Allen Robinson - WR, $5,000 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 11 targets, seven receptions, 76 receiving yards.
With the aforementioned Diontae Johnson out in tonight's game, it'll be up to George Pickens and Allen Robinson to step up in the Steelers' passing offense. Robinson projects to 3.42 receptions on 5.21 targets for 38.09 receiving yards and a 25% chance of finding the end zone. As I mentioned, Meyers has the second-best matchup on the slate, Robinson has the best matchup on this slate, and actually the best matchup this entire week as Vegas brings in a 107.36% DVOA vs. WR2s this season.
Las Vegas Raiders - D/ST, $4,000 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 27 points per game allowed, four sacks.
I'll wrap things up with the Raiders defense. Clearly, I won't be playing the Raiders defense in lineups where I have Pickett as captain/MVP for correlation purposes. The Raiders' defense has played poorly this year, but rather than "strength vs. strength", this matchup is more "weakness vs. weakness". The Steelers rank dead last in offensive DVOA this season (-42.18%), and we could very well see this Matt Canada-led offense struggle once again.
Other Value Options: Chris Boswell, Calvin Austin III, Daniel Carlson
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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