RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well so far. After last week's Eagles/Cowboys rivalry game, we have an interesting showdown tonight as the Steelers will head down to Miami to take on the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa should be making his return for Miami tonight, so I do think we'll be seeing more from their passing game than in the previous weeks where they had Skylar Thompson under center. Let's take a look.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Cowboys vs. Eagles NFL DFS showdown slate on October 16th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Tua Tagovailoa - QB, $16,500 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,035 passing yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 32.8% (5th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 8.1% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with Tua himself. After a horrifying injury on Thursday Night Football a few weeks back, it'll be truly good to see him back on the field. As far as his pass-catchers go, nothing has changed since he's been gone. He's easily my favorite 1.5x guy on the slate, given that he's not the most expensive guy on either site. That, along with the fact that my model points to a strong passing funnel for Miami, look for Tua to get the ball in the hands of his pass-catchers and let them do the heavy lifting.
Tyreek Hill - WR, $16,800 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 65 targets, 50 receptions, 701 yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Arthur Maulet): 12% targets per route, 75% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll be looking at one of these playmakers here, Tyreek Hill. I bounced back and forth on whether I was going to list Hill or Waddle here, and I'll be about 50/50 between them. The Dolphins have a projected DVOA of 36.54% through Hill, whereas the projected DVOA through Waddle is 32.54%. It's extremely close and will my decision on which to play (if not both) will ultimately come down to lineup construction.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jaylen Waddle, Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris
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DFS Flex Plays
Kenny Pickett - QB, $9,200 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 514 passing yards, one passing touchdown, four interceptions, 41 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 8.1% (20th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 23.4% (31st), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Kenny Pickett. Pickett, who left last week's game against the Buccaneers due to a concussion, was able to practice all week and should be back under center tonight. It hasn't been an easy go for the rookie, and I'm not sure tonight will be much easier. However, if the Steelers go down, they'll have to throw their way back into the game, and Miami's 31st ranked defense in terms of passing DVOA should be soft enough to allow Pickett to move the ball down the field with his arm in garbage time.
George Pickens - WR, $6,400 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 34 targets, 20 receptions, 277 yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs Xavien Howard): 16% targets per route, 69% catch rate, 0.48 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
Similar to my decision on Hill and Waddle, I fell into the same situation with Pittsburgh's George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. While I'll be much heavier on the Miami passing offense, my model leans toward a passing funnel for the Steelers as well. Pickens is starting to come into his own through the first six weeks and does have the DVOA advantage over Johnson in this one. Xavien Howard has been fine but isn't the corner he once was. I'll look for Pickens's big play ability to aid him in reaching value tonight.
Other Flex Options: Jaylen Waddle, Diontae Johnson, Chase Edmonds, Najee Harris
DFS Value Plays
Pat Freiermuth - TE, $5,000 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 32 targets, 20 receptions, 235 yards, one touchdown
- Individual Matchup (vs Brandon Jones): 16% target rate, 73% catch rate, 0.22 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
Strangely enough, the third player in this article to be returning from concussion protocol for tonight's game is Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth has emerged as a rather solid TE option in both season-long and daily fantasy formats. He's seeing more than six targets a game so far on the year, as well as a 33.33% red zone target rate. While Pittsburgh needs to get the ball down to the red zone for this to matter, his cheap price on both sites makes him a must-play tonight.
Miami Dolphins - D/ST, $4,000 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 25.2 points per game allowed, 12 sacks, one interception, three fumble recoveries, one defensive touchdown.
The Miami defense has been their weaker side of the field through the first six weeks, which is to be expected given the firepower they have in their offense. They've allowed 151 points on the year but it should be noted that 62 of those came in the past two weeks where their offense, led by third-string QB Skylar Thompson, left them in short-field position situations and didn't sustain many long drives throughout the game. I'll look for the Dolphins' defense to completely eliminate the run game and force a turnover-prone Kenny Pickett to make mistakes.
Other Value Plays: Chris Boswell, Jason Sanders, Jaylen Warren, Mike Gesicki
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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