RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 12 has gone well. I had a solid day yesterday and I hope you did, too! After a very fun and high-scoring SNF matchup in Philadelphia, it seems like tonight will be... well... quite the opposite. We'll plant our flags in Indianapolis tonight as the Steelers (3-7) take on the Colts (4-6-1). With neither offense being spectacular and both defenses playing well, we'll see how this affects our showdown lineups. Let's get right to it.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Steelers vs Colts NFL DFS showdown slate on November 28th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jonathan Taylor - RB, $17,100 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 151 rushes, 693 rushing yards, 31 targets, 21 receptions, 97 rushing yards, three touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -24.3% (32nd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -14.4% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start things off on tonight's slate with Jonathan Taylor. While the Eagles seemed to have figured out the Indianapolis run game following the first drive last Sunday, Taylor is slowly but surely shaping back into his 2021 form. He's logged 231 yards and two touchdowns as well as five receptions for 26 yards over the past two weeks, and should once again be the focus of the Colts' offense under new head coach Jeff Saturday. I don't anticipate Taylor (or any offensive players, for that matter) to have a huge game, but he has a solid enough floor for me to trust him in this spot.
Matt Ryan - QB, $14,400 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,443 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, nine interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -21.5% (31st), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 9.1% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
Speaking of trust... I can't say I fully trust Matt Ryan and it really goes to show how bad of an offensive slate we have on our hands that I'm putting him in this spot. Nevertheless, Ryan actually projects decently well against Pittsburgh's defense tonight. My model projects him for 266.28 yards and 1.85 touchdowns. Similar to Taylor, the matchup isn't spectacular here, but he has a solid enough floor for me to back him in the 1.5x spot.
Other Captains/MVPs: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts D/ST, George Pickens
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DFS Flex Plays
George Pickens - WR, $7,400 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 53 targets, 33 receptions, 453 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Stephon Gilmore): 16% targets per route, 59% catch rate, 0.21 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Now we'll look at a duo of pass-catchers on the other side of the field, starting with George Pickens. Pickens has been a very fun player to watch this season for the Steelers, and while he only has three touchdowns on the season, all three have come in the last week. He should lead all Steelers in targets tonight, and despite the tough matchup against Stephon Gilmore, the Steelers do have a projected 6.74% DVOA when targeting the "number-one WR." While that's kind of arbitrary between Pickens and Diontae Johnson, I'll be mixing and matching them in my lineups, but I lean toward Pickens due to his price and big-play ability.
Pat Freiermuth - TE, $6,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 67 targets, 44 receptions, 482 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Bobby Okereke): 20% targets per route, 75% catch rate, 0.30 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
The second Steelers pass-catcher that deserves a mention is Pat Freiermuth. "Muth" is rounding into one of the better receiving tight ends in the NFL, and has been an absolute target monster of late. He's seen 35 targets over his last four games, and my model projects him for another 6.71 targets tonight. My model also has him leading the Steelers in receptions tonight (4.65) with the second-highest percentage chance of finding the end zone (33%).
Other Flex Options: Kenny Pickett, Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris, Parris Campbell
DFS Value Plays
Indianapolis Colts - D/ST, $4,600 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 18.91 points per game allowed, 28 sacks, four interceptions, seven fumble recoveries.
- Projected DVOA: -13.67%
After we saw how the Eagles played last night, scoring 40 points, it made Indianapolis's showing that much better in my opinion. The Colts may have been (and still are) a relative mess throughout this season, but their defense has been good. I expect them to be good once again tonight, giving Najee Harris no room to run on the inside, and keeping Kenny Pickett at bay with different pass-rush schemes.
Pittsburgh Steelers - D/ST, $4,400 (DK), $5,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 23.8 points per game allowed, 19 sacks, 12 interceptions, two fumble recoveries, one defensive touchdown.
- Projected DVOA: -23.17%
Double defense? Double defense. Even with the slim total of 39.5 points according to FanDuel Sportsbook, this game has the "under" written all over it. There is a scenario where the likes of Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman go "game-breaker" on the Steelers' defense, I just think it's more likely that the Colts try to chip away at this Steelers defense. Matt Ryan got the ball out exceptionally quickly against the Eagles last week, but I don't think he'll have as much success this week with T.J. Watt constantly in his face tonight.
Other Value Plays: Matthew Wright, Alec Pierce, Deon Jackson, Benny Snell Jr.
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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