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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Seahawks vs 49ers showdown slate on 01/14. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with a Wild Card Weekend Showdown. We have an inter-divisional matchup here, as the Seattle Seahawks (9-8) head into The Bay to take on the San Francisco 49ers (13-4). The hardest thing in football is to beat a team three times in one season, but Vegas doesn't think that cliche applies in this one, as "Mr. Irrelevant" Brock Purdy and the Niners come into this one as nine-point favorites. Let's take a look at how this affects our DFS lineups for this game.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the end of the season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Seahawks vs. 49ers NFL DFS showdown slate on January 14th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Christian McCaffery - RB, $18,600 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 244 rushing attempts, 1,139 rushing yards, 108 targets, 85 receptions, 741 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -0.5% (13th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 1.9% (25th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Christian McCaffery himself. CMC had a solid game against the Seahawks back in December, rushing the ball 26 times for 108 yards and a touchdown while catching six of his eight targets for 30 receiving yards. The Niners have a positive projected rushing DVOA matchup at 5.59%. My model projects CMC for 77.73 rushing yards on 16 carries while adding 4.16 receptions on 4.87 targets for 35.45 yards and a 95% chance of scoring a touchdown.
Geno Smith - QB, $15,300 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 4,282 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 11 interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 24.1% (eighth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -8% (fifth), per Football Outsiders
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Geno Smith. Geno has had himself a remarkable season, starting with his epic quote "they wrote me off, but I ain't write back". He now gets the first playoff start of his career against a team he's already faced twice in the year. He struggled a bit against the Niners this season, throwing for just 435 yards, one touchdown, and one interception across those two games. My model projects him for 251.42 yards and 1.34 touchdowns tonight, and I think whether it's Geno keeping it close or fighting for a backdoor cover, he'll be able to hit value tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, 49ers D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
George Kittle - TE, $8,200 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 86 targets, 60 receptions, 765 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Cody Barton): 16% targets per route, 76% catch rate, 0.27 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Starting with a pair of 49ers pass catchers here, I'll take a look at George Kittle. Kittle played in just one game against the Seahawks this season, where he caught four of five targets for 93 yards and two touchdowns. The Seahawks struggle against tight ends, which is shown in the Niners' projected 42.46% DVOA when targeting their tight ends. My model projects Kittle for 4.77 receptions on 6.76 targets for 70.18 yards and a 56% chance of finding the end zone tonight.
Brandon Aiyuk - WR, $7,400 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 114 targets, 78 receptions, 1,015 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Tariq Woolen): 11% targets per route, 56% catch rate, 0.20 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll take a look at Brandon Aiyuk next. Aiyuk had a phenomenal regular season this year, though neither of his games against Seattle jumped off the page. In those two games, Aiyuk caught seven of 12 targets for 82 yards and didn't find the end zone. However, Aiyuk has a projected 53.66% DVOA when being targeted in this game, and projects to 4.85 receptions on 6.3 targets for 55.56 yards and a 37% chance of finding the end zone in this one.
Other Flex Options: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Brock Purdy
DFS Value Plays
Noah Fant - TE, $4,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 63 targets, 50 receptions, 486 receiving yards, and four touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Dre Greenlaw): 19% targets per route, 78% catch rate, 0.29 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll take a look at Noah Fant next. Fant caught seven of eight targets for 43 yards and a touchdown against the Niners this season, and I expect him to have a solid night tonight given the Seahawks' projected 10.16% DVOA when targeting their tight ends in this one. I project Fant to catch 3.23 of his 4.63 targets for 29.15 yards and a 20% chance of finding the end zone tonight, but I'll probably have a 60/40 share between Fant and Colby Parkinson tonight.
Kyle Juszczyk - RB, $1,000 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: Seven rushing attempts, 26 rushing yards, 23 targets, 19 receptions, 200 receiving yards, and two touchdowns
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -0.5% (13th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 1.9% (25th), per Football Outsiders.
It wouldn't be a 49ers showdown slate if I didn't mention Kyle Juszczyk. He didn't do much against the Seahawks this season, only touching the ball once in the two matchups. However, that touch was a two-yard carry for a touchdown. I project him for a bit more tonight, as my model shows him running the ball 3.63 times for 19.59 yards while adding in 1.29 receptions on 1.91 targets for 12.39 yards and a 26% chance of scoring a touchdown. I know for a fact that Kyle Shanahan will pull out all the stops in an effort to make this Super Bowl run, and it'll certainly be interesting how he uses Juszczyk in the playoffs.
Other Value Plays: 49ers D/ST, Colby Parkinson, Robbie Gould
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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