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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a Monday Night Football game that could surprise some people, as Derek Carr and the Saints (2-2) head out to Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (4-0). The Saints had stormed out of the gates offensively in the first two weeks of the season, and the Chiefs have been known for their explosive offense the past decade or so, but tonight, we could have all the fixings for a defensive showdown. Will that be the case? Let's see how it plays out.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Saints vs. Chiefs NFL DFS showdown slate on October 7. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts whenever you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, Kansas City Chiefs - $16.5K (DK), $16K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 904 passing yards, six passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 17 rushing attempts, 61 rushing yards.
- Projected Pass DVOA: -12.54%
Tonight's game is certainly an interesting one. The Chiefs are coming into this one rather shorthanded due to injuries to both Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco. They now take their shot at the NFL's second-ranked defense in terms of DVOA (-17.5%). I'll trust the Chiefs passing game to function more smoothly than their run game, so Mahomes is worth a shot here.
MAHOMES TO WORTHY FOR A 54-YARD TD.
📺: #KCvsLAC on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/ZAYGWXNr1V— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
My model projects Mahomes to complete 68.98% of his passes for 238.4 yards and 1.39 touchdowns while adding 20.31 yards on the ground. The Saints can get pressure but struggle against open-field runners (1.17 yards per snap, 28th in the NFL), Mahomes could create some magic with his legs which would raise his ceiling tremendously.
Alvin Kamara - RB, New Orleans Sains - $17.1K (DK), $17K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 80 rushing attempts, 362 rushing yards, 20 targets, 17 receptions, 174 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -10.36%
I'll flip the field and look at RB1 through the first four weeks of the season, Alvin Kamara. As a Kamara drafter, I couldn't be happier with his performance through the opening stretch of the year. However, we have to temper expectations on Kamara this evening. The Chiefs rank second amongst NFL defenses in DVOA against the run (22.9%).
THAT’S FOUR FOR ALVIN KAMARA 😤
📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/UouER56mcI— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
With all of that said, players can be matchup-proof. Kamara has been one of those guys, and tonight my model projects him to carry the ball 16.2 times for 65.23 yards, adding 3.74 receptions 27.59 receiving yards, and 0.55 total touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Travis Kelce, Rashid Shaheed, Xavier Worthy
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
DFS Flex Plays
Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs - $8.6K (DK), $13K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 21 targets, 15 receptions, 158 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 14.4%
I wrote up Travis Kelce two weeks ago against the Falcons and will continue if his price doesn't move. Kelce had his "coming out party" last week against the Chargers, catching seven of nine targets for 89 yards. As good as the Saints defense is, they struggle a bit against tight ends, ranking 26th in DVOA against the position.
Kelce projects for 6.67 receptions on 9.34 targets for 65.47 yards and 0.48 touchdowns in this one. As mentioned, the Chiefs are shorthanded in this spot and will rely on their big names to get the job done.
Rashid Shaheed - WR, New Orleans Saints - $8.0K (DK), $10K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 25 targets, 15 receptions, 252 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: 19%
I'll flip the field and look at one of the most exciting players in the league Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed has always had a bit of boom-or-bust to him, like in Week 3 where he didn't catch any of his five targets and finished the game without so much as a tenth of a fantasy point. He's been incredible in the other three weeks, though, including last week where he caught eight of 11 targets for 83 yards while adding another 14 yards on the ground.
Shaheed projects to bring in 4.2 of 7.35 targets for 48.71 yards while adding 7.56 rushing yards. My model has him at 0.32 touchdowns, which I find a bit low simply due to his ability to score on any play when he's on the field. With 11 targets last week and the matchup he draws in this one, I'm optimistic Shaheed can have one of those "boom" performances here.
Other Flex Options: Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Chris Olave
DFS Value Plays
Juwan Johnson - TE, New Orleans Saints - $2.2K (DK), $7.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: Six targets, four receptions, 39 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 3.6%
I'll start things off with Juwan Johnson on the value side. Given the nature of the Chiefs' defense, I expect the short and intermediate passing game to open up, opening the door for Johnson to boom tonight. The Chiefs come into this one ranked 16th in DVOA against tight ends, but rank last in the league in targets allowed and receiving yards allowed to the big guys through the first four weeks of the season.
My model projects Johnson to catch just 2.29 of 3.62 targets for 21.35 yards and 0.19 touchdowns. I'm not saying Johnson breaks out and has a 100-yard receiving game, but I could reasonably expect him to catch five or six passes and maybe even find his way into the end zone.
Noah Gray - TE, Kansas City Chiefs - $2.6K (DK), $7.0K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: Nine targets, eight receptions, 90 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 14.4%
I'll wrap things up with the Chiefs' second tight end, Noah Gray. I appreciate this play for the same reasons I mentioned when discussing Travis Kelce, and I wouldn't be opposed to playing both in the same lineup. My model projects Gray to catch 2.93 of 3.91 targets for 28.96 yards and 0.17 touchdowns. Not that it needs to be said, but I expect a huge game from Andy Reid and the Chiefs tight ends here.
Other Value Plays: Jamaal Williams, Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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