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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 13 has gone well. We have an interesting Monday night matchup tonight as the Saints (4-8) head into Tampa to take on the Buccaneers (5-6). What makes this such an interesting matchup is two-fold. For one, the Saints have seemed to have the Bucs' number (at least in the regular season) the last few years. Secondly, despite the Saints having the sixth-worst record in the NFL, they're just a game and a half behind the Bucs for first in the NFC South. Nevertheless, let's take a look at what we want to do in our DFS lineups on this slate.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Saints vs. Buccaneers NFL DFS showdown slate on December 5th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Tom Brady - QB, $15,600 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 3,051 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and two interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 22.2% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 2.3% (12th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start things off with the G.O.A.T., Tom Brady. Brady has had some struggles against the Saints since joining the Buccaneers, as previously mentioned, but I'm not expecting that to be the case tonight. The 3.5 line indicates that this game may be closer than some would expect, and the Buccaneers have a pretty large lean toward the DVOA passing funnel (+36.33%). I project Brady to "air it out" tonight, as much as he can at least, and my model projects him for 271.14 passing yards and 1.84 touchdowns tonight.
Andy Dalton - QB, $13,500 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,023 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -1.2% (24th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -10.3% (sixth), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, we have Andy Dalton. It's a bit weird that Dalton is continuing to start for New Orleans, given that he hasn't brought them much success. Nevertheless, he's starting, and as I mentioned with Brady, the relatively close line leads me to believe that the Saints will be throwing the ball to keep pace with Brady and the Bucs.
While the funnel isn't as strong with New Orleans, my data model does give a slight lean to the passing game (+3.6%). We've seen the QBs of underdog teams have quite a bit of success lately in showdown slates (outside of Matt Ryan last night... yuck!), and we'll see if that trend continues with Dalton tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Alvin Kamara
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DFS Flex Plays
Chris Godwin - WR, $7,400 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 86 targets, 60 receptions, 585 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Chris Harris Jr.): 20% targets per route, 78% catch rate, 0.35 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll take a look at Chris Godwin as my number-one correlation with Tom Brady tonight. Godwin has been seeing a ton of targets lately, with 55 targets over his last five games, including 13 targets last week against the Browns. My model projects him for 8.5 tonight, catching 6.37 of them for 71.54 yards and a 45% chance of scoring a touchdown. As Brady ages, his arm isn't as strong, so I'll look for him to find the sweet spot with Godwin in the short and intermediate routes against the Saints' defense.
Chris Olave - WR, $6,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 92 targets, 56 receptions, 822 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Carlton Davis): 21% targets per route, 60% catch rate, 0.32 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Similar to Godwin's correlation to Brady, I'll look to correlate Chris Olave in my Andy Dalton captain lineups. It's not an easy matchup for the rookie tonight against the Buccaneers' secondary (and in particular Carlton Davis), but the 0.32 fantasy points per route ran meshes well with Olave's big play ability. My model projects Olave to catch 4.26 of his 7.66 targets for 60.51 receiving yards and a 33% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Flex Options: Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette
DFS Value Plays
Julio Jones - WR, $5,400 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 25 targets, 14 receptions, 218 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Bradley Roby): 18% targets per route, 51% catch rate, 0.26 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
After an injury-riddled first half of the season, it looks like Julio Jones is slowly but surely coming around, just in time for the stretch run. Julio logged three of his four targets for 40 yards last Sunday against the Browns, and I anticipate him to have a similar output tonight.
My model projects Jones to haul in 2.66 of his 4.63 targets for 38.53 yards. He does have a 24% chance of finding the end zone as well, and actually has the best matchup of all pass-catchers tonight, as the Buccaneers have a projected 52.64% DVOA when targeting "other" wide-receivers (any wide receiver not listed as the "number-one" or "number-two" receiver).
Jarvis Landry - WR, $5,200 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 35 targets, 23 receptions, 258 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Sean Murphy-Bunting): 17% targets per route, 81% catch rate, 0.38 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll finish things up with Jarvis Landry, the fourth and final pass-catcher I have my eye on for this matchup. Landry has "fallen off" since his time in Miami and Cleveland, perhaps due to age and a general lack of ability in the Saints' passing game.
Nevertheless, Landry is cheap, projects to 3.82 receptions on 5.94 targets for 39.05 receiving yards and a 22% chance of scoring, and has the strongest matchup of all Saints pass-catchers tonight (projected -2.16% DVOA). He's worth a shot given his cheap price, but I would opt for the boom-or-bust ability of Rashid Shaheed in large-field contests.
Other Value Plays: Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST, Ryan Succop, Rashid Shaheed, Adam Trautman, Cade Otton
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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