RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 9 has been more successful than mine! I had a tough day yesterday, being ripped apart by chalk on the DFS side of things while getting some bad beats on the betting side of things. The best part about sports is, there's always tomorrow... which is today! In this article, we'll take a look at the Monday Night Football slate as the Baltimore Ravens (5-3) head down south to take on the New Orleans Saints (3-5) in the Big Easy.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Ravens vs Saints NFL DFS showdown slate on November 7th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Lamar Jackson - QB, $18,600 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,635 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, 75 rushes, 553 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 33.6% (fourth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 2.2% (11th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Lamar Jackson. I started off last Thursday's slate with Lamar, noting that he was due to turn it around and get back on track despite the Bucs' daunting defense... and he delivered. While the Saints' defense is no slouch either, I do have the Ravens projected to a passing DVOA of 27.89% tonight. While I won't say Lamar will rack up the passing yards that Patrick Mahomes did last night, I do have him projected for 212.45 passing yards and 1.75 passing touchdowns, as well as adding another 60 yards on the ground.
Alvin Kamara - RB, $17,100 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 95 carries, 413 rushing yards, 45 targets, 33 receptions, 287 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 10.8% (sixth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -8.8% (11th), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Alvin Kamara. I've mentioned before that I'm not a huge fan of writing up the two most expensive (and obvious) players in the 1.5x spot, I don't think we have many options tonight. If the Saints offense is going to operate effectively, it's going to be on the ground, as my model projects them to a 15.59% rushing DVOA. Kamara will head the way as the Saints look to march (see what I did there?), as I have the running back projected for just under 18 touches for 93.9 yards with a 71% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Captains/MVPs: Isaiah Likely, Kenyan Drake, Chris Olave
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DFS Flex Plays
Chris Olave - WR, $8,600 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 63 targets, 37 receptions, 547 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Marcus Peters): 13% targets per route, 67% catch rate, 0.25 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
We'll take a look at Chris Olave, who seemingly has had the metaphorical WR1 "keys" handed to him with Michael Thomas now put on the IR and is now out for the season. The Saints don't have a great matchup against the Ravens' pass defense and Olave even less so against Marcus Peters, but I believe it simply comes down to necessity here. Jarvis Landry is questionable, and Juwan Johnson is beginning to come into his own as a receiving option, but I still think Olave should be a target monster. My model projects him for 8.25 targets, 4.92 receptions, and 73.61 receiving yards with a 37% chance of scoring a touchdown.
Devin Duvernay - WR, $6,800 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 32 targets, 24 receptions, 313 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Chris Harris Jr.): 18% targets per route, 84% catch rate, 0.28 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
On the other field, I'll look at another young guy, albeit not a rookie, who has unexpectedly become his team's number-one receiver due to an injury. I thought that Duvernay was something special back when he was at Texas, and it's finally coming to fruition this season. He doesn't project quite as well as Olave, but my model has him hauling in 4.62 of his 6.34 targets for 50.77 receiving yards and a 39% chance of scoring a touchdown.
Other Flex Options: Andy Dalton, Demarcus Robinson
DFS Value Plays
Isaiah Likely - TE, $5,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 25 targets, 16 receptions, 181 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Demario Davis): 7% targets per route, 68% catch rate, 0.1 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
After Mark Andrews left the game following just 10 snaps last Thursday against the Bucs, Isaiah Likely had his "coming out party" by catching six of his seven targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. Tonight's outlook should be a bit different as he draws a pretty tough matchup against Demario Davis and the interior of the Saints' back seven. With that said, though, the Ravens love scheming for their tight ends, seemingly making him a must-play on tonight's slate at his price.
Baltimore Ravens - D/ST, $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 22.88 points per game allowed, 23 sacks, eight interceptions, seven fumble recoveries, one defensive touchdown.
- Projected Defense Weighted DVOA: 1.52%
Finally, I'll talk a bit about the Ravens' defense. It's been a relative "up and down" season for them thus far into 2022, but now it seems they're finally healthy and ready to roll. I like them in this spot considering the lackluster passing game of the Saints, and we saw what Andy Dalton did a few weeks back in prime time, tossing two pick-sixes in as many minutes. Unless the Saints can absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage in the run game and keep this one close, I expect Baltimore's defensive unit to take hold of this game and make Dalton pay for his mistakes.
Other Value Plays: Juwan Johnson, Justin Tucker, James Proche, Will Lutz
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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