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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with some Week 8 Thursday Night Football DFS lineups. We had a more interesting Thursday night matchup last week, and it was refreshing to actually see some offense on a Thursday. Regardless if tonight's game is high-scoring or not, it should be an interesting showdown between two struggling playoff teams as the Ravens head down to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. Let's take a look.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Ravens vs. Buccaneers NFL DFS showdown slate on October 27th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Lamar Jackson - QB, $17,700 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,397 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, six interceptions, 510 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 30.4% (5th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -14.1% (6th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Lamar Jackson. After starting the season on fire, Lamar has cooled down significantly. The Ravens, now 4-3, with the Bengals on their heels, will look to Lamar to get them over the hump against a Bucs team that's also struggled quite a bit. The Buccaneers' defense has been the bright side of the field for them thus far, but it's just hard for me to fade Lamar with his rushing floor and seemingly improved ability to throw the ball downfield in a game that in my book should be a high-scoring affair.
Chris Godwin - WR, $13,500 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 44 targets, 29 receptions, 293 receiving yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs Damarion Williams): 22% targets per route, 74% catch rate, 0.5 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Chris Godwin. Simply put, the Buccaneers' offense needs to get going. They have a strong passing funnel against the Ravens' defense, and I expect Brady to air it out once again tonight. Godwin has the strongest DVOA matchup among all Bucs receivers (3.27%) per Football Outsiders as well as the strongest projected matchup rating (61.92) per PFF. He's cheaper than Evans on both sites, so I'll slightly lean toward him in this spot.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tom Brady, Mark Andrews, Devin Duvernay
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DFS Flex Plays
Tom Brady - QB, $10,000 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,942 passing yards, eight touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 18.1% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -1.1% (8th), per Football Outsiders
In terms of correlation, we'll want to correlate Brady with either Godwin or Evans for tonight's game. Once again, the Buccanneers' passing offense has to get going, and it all starts with Tom Brady. I don't want to fully commit and say he's officially falling off the cliff, but it appears he's heading in that direction. I'm sure he hears the whispers throughout the media, and it would be just like him to bounce back tonight in a big game on prime time and throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. He should have a clean pocket all night, as the Ravens' defense projects to just a 17% pressure rate and 4.73% sack rate, giving Brady the time to pick apart their secondary.
Gus Edwards - RB, $7,600 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 16 attempts, 66 rushing yards, one target, two touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 6.1% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Rush DVOA: -10.4% (11th), per Football Outsiders.
While both teams have relatively strong passing funnels tonight, I'll take a look at some of the running backs each team has as well. Gus Edwards got the starting nod last week against the Browns, and boy did he not disappoint. His 4.12 yards per carry wasn't super impressive, but he did rush for two scores within the ten-yard line. Regardless of the DVOA matchup, the Ravens are always going to run the ball, so I'll look to Edwards as a volume play in a game where there should be a lot of points scored.
Other Flex Options: Devin Duvernay, Rashod Bateman, Mike Evans
DFS Value Plays
Cade Otton - TE, $5,400 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 21 targets, 16 receptions, 163 receiving yards.
- Individual Matchup (vs Patrick Queen): 18% targets per route, 83% catch rate, 0.3 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
It's a prime-time game, so we have to look at a tight end, especially when Cade Otton comes in as cheap as he is on both sites. Otton finished second in receiving yards Sunday in the Bucs' loss against the Panthers, grabbing four of his five targets for 64 yards. He's gotten a respectable amount of targets per game since Cameron Brate has gone down with an injury. We know Brady loves his tight-end safety blankets, and with Russell Gage out for Tampa tonight, I'll be expecting Otton to get some work in the short and intermediate passing game should the Ravens have Evans and Godwin covered downfield.
Rechaad White - RB, $4,000 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 26 attempts, 71 rushing yards, 19 targets, 14 receptions, 104 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -22.1% (31st), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Rush DVOA: -0.1% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
Finally, I'll take a look at Rechaad White. White hasn't done anything impressive yet, but he sees a respectable amount of touches and targets. Ultimately, he's still "second fiddle" to Leonard Fournette, but he's seeing enough touches that should he find the end zone tonight he'll easily pay off at his price. I won't recommend playing him in a bunch of lineups, and certainly, not in any lineups you're playing Fournette in, but I'll use him as a value dart and hope it hits.
Other Value Plays: Buccaneers D/ST, Justin Tucker, Isaiah Likely
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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