RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! After an exciting Chargers-Jaguars Saturday night matchup last night, we have a "less fun" matchup as the Baltimore Ravens (10-7) take on the Cincinnati Bengals (12-4). These two teams matched up last week in Cincinnati, with the Bengals taking care of business against Anthony Brown and the Ravens, 27-16. There will be a change at QB for Baltimore in this one, but it won't be Lamar Jackson, it'll be Tyler Huntley under center for the Ravens this evening. Let's see how this affects our DFS lineups.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Ravens vs. Bengals Wild Card NFL DFS showdown slate on January 15th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Joe Burrow - QB, $17,100 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 4,475 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 24.9% (seventh), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -2.5% (11th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with "Joe Cool" Joe Burrow. As Burrow and the Bengals look to make their second consecutive Super Bowl run, they'll have to go through divisional rival Baltimore first. In two games against the Ravens this season, Burrow threw for 432 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Tonight, however, my model projects Burrow to toss for 288.87 yards, 2.02 touchdowns, and just 0.67 interceptions.
J.K. Dobbins - RB, $12,300 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 92 rushing attempts, 520 rushing yards, eight targets, seven receptions, 42 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 10.8% (second), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -9.5% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at J.K. Dobbins. It's tough for me to play anyone in the Ravens backfield, just given the "roulette" system that Greg Roman runs. I do think they'll pull out all of the stops for the playoffs, and I believe that starts with Dobbins. Dobbins projects for 55.12 rushing yards on 11.79 attempts while adding 0.8 receptions on 1.74 targets for just 4.63 yards. He does project a 34% chance of finding the end zone, although I do feel like that number should be higher.
Other Captains/MVPs: Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase
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DFS Flex Plays
Tee Higgins - WR, $9,400 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 109 targets, 74 receptions, 1,029 yards, and seven touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Marcus Peters): 13% target rate, 71% catch rate, 0.27 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll take a look at a pass-catcher from each team next. I'll start with Tee Higgins. Higgins has a slightly better matchup than Ja'Marr Chase in this game against the Ravens, with a projected 12.76% DVOA when targeted. He didn't really see any true game action in the two games against the Ravens this season, which may be to his benefit. Regardless, my model projects Higgins to haul in 5.06 of his 7.28 targets for 70.59 yards and a 41% chance of finding the end zone.
Mark Andrews - TE, $7,800 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 113 targets, 73 receptions, 847 yards, and five touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Logan Wilson): 13% target rate, 83% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
On the other side, I feel like you absolutely MUST play Mark Andrews tonight. As I mentioned with Dobbins, I think the Ravens have to pull out all the stops now that we're in the playoffs. While Andrews hasn't caught a touchdown pass all season, in his last game with Huntley under center, Andrews caught all nine of his targets for 100 yards against the Steelers. My model projects Andrews with 4.94 receptions on 7.85 targets for 54.37 yards and a 22% chance of scoring a touchdown. I understand why my model is under-projecting the Ravens, but I see it as exactly that, an under-projection.
Other Flex Options: Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Tyler Huntley, Tyler Boyd
DFS Value Plays
Hayden Hurst - TE, $4,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 68 targets, 52 receptions, 414 yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Roquan Smith): 13% target rate, 78% catch rate, 0.22 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll take a look at the tight end on the other side of the field here in Hayden Hurst. Hurst played in both games against Baltimore this season, catching 10 of his 12 targets for 67 yards and a touchdown. While my model projects a bit less in this one, with Hurst catching 3.12 of his 4.53 targets for 27.69 yards and a 29% chance of scoring a touchdown, I think he sees a bit more tonight underneath as the Bengals try to consistently move the ball down the field.
Justin Tucker - K, $4,200 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 42 field goals attempted, 37 field goals made, 32 extra points attempted, 31 extra points made.
I'll finish things up with Justin Tucker. The thought process here is two-fold. For one, I believe that Tyler Huntley is "good enough" as a replacement for Lamar Jackson. What I mean by that is that Huntley may not "blow the Bengals' defense up," but I think they'll be able to move the ball down the field and get into Tucker's range. The second part of this thought process is that Tucker was named to the Second-Team All-Pro roster, and I think he'll have a bit extra juice in this one. I think this play directly correlates to the Ravens' defense, so if you're playing in a large-field tournament, I would stack both in an effort to get different. Who knows, they might win you a lot of money 🙂
Other Value Plays: Bengals D/ST, Evan McPherson, Isaiah Likely
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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