RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 4 has been successful so far. I had a fantastic day yesterday, sweeping each of the four "major" slates, including a top 1% victory in the 4 pm Only slate on FanDuel. We ended the night on an awesome, pass-heavy Sunday Night Football showdown between the Chiefs and Buccaneers, as I predicted. While I expect tonight to lean towards a passing-heavy game as well, I see this as more of a defensive struggle where both teams are forced to throw the ball to move it down the field.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Rams vs 49ers NFL DFS showdown slate on October 3rd. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Cooper Kupp - WR, $18,000 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 35 targets, 28 receptions, 280 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Deommodore Lenoir): 27% targets per route, 71% catch rate, 0.32 fantasy points per route covered.
I'll start tonight's slate off with the highest-priced player on both sites, Cooper Kupp. Kupp's price is certainly justified, as he's building off of a monster 2021 season with an impressive start to 2022. Kupp has a perfect rating, according to PFF, and should dominate as he's been doing. In a game where I believe scoring will be hard to come by, I'll rely on the "safe" bet of Kupp to rack up fantasy points. Obviously, it's easier to slot him into the 1.5x spot on FanDuel than DraftKings, but I think it's important to have shares of him on both sites.
Jimmy Garoppolo - QB, $15,000 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 365 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 3.9% (19th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 16.4% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
I can feel the tomatoes being thrown at me from a mile away for this selection (ha). The fact of the matter is, though, the 49ers' passing offense has the highest-projected DVOA on the slate. Garoppolo has looked less than "good" since filling in for Trey Lance, and Kyle Shanahan is unpredictable enough as it is, so I will be treading with caution here. It is worth noting that Garoppolo has had his best three games in terms of passer rating against the Rams in his last three matchups with them (124.3, 141.7, 87.5, respectively).
Other Captains/MVPs: Deebo Samuel, Matthew Stafford, Ben Skowronek
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DFS Flex Plays
Matthew Stafford - QB, $10,600 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 761 passing yards, four touchdowns, five interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 5.2% (16th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -24.7% (fifth), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, we have Matthew Stafford. I could certainly see myself going in a completely different direction in some lineups, where I'll fade both quarterbacks and just play some pass catchers and maybe a running back. Nevertheless, it seems like it's been almost necessary to play both QBs in these showdown slates, particularly on DraftKings, to have a shot at winning anything big. I'm more than a bit concerned with Stafford's elbow injury that he's brought into this season, but I still rate him as one of the more optimal plays on the slate tonight.
Brandon Aiyuk - WR, $7,600 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 19 targets, 10 receptions, 142 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Derion Kendrick): 30% targets per route, 56% catch rate, 0.36 fantasy points per route covered.
I want to be clear: I'm not fully fading the running backs in this game and will have some hedge lineups where I mix and match some combination of Cam Akers, Jeff Wilson Jr., and Darrell Henderson Jr. However, my model currently favors the passing attacks of both offenses by quite a bit. I do like Aiyuk in this spot as he's seen at least eight targets in each of the last two games, directly correlated to when Garoppolo took over at quarterback. He also has the second-highest projected DVOA of any receivers on the slate (43.33%).
Other Flex Options: Deebo Samuel, Tyler Higbee, Jeff Wilson Jr.
DFS Value Plays
Ben Skowronek - WR, $4,400 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 13 targets, 10 receptions, 107 receiving yards
- Individual Matchup (vs Emmanuel Moseley): 10% targets per route, 70% catch rate, 0.17 fantasy points per route covered.
So if Aiyuk has the second-highest projected DVOA among the pass catchers, who has the highest? That would be Ben Skowronek. Sure, Skrowronek would be one of the last guys you would think of when looking to correlate your quarterback with a pass-catcher, but he's worth a look at his price tonight. I'm not banging down any doors to tell everyone that he's a "must-play" on tonight's slate, but he's certainly worth a look considering his cheap price on both sites.
Robbie Gould - K, $4,000 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 4/5 field goals made/attempted, 5/5 extra points made/attempted.
I mentioned at the top of the article that I believe this game should be a defensive battle. While my model projects both teams to use the passing game to their advantage, I still think points will be hard to come by. The 39-year-old kicker has been "as good as Gould," knocking down four of five field goal attempts and all of his five extra point attempts. It's almost a given that the Niners will have a few drives that stall and they'll look to Robbie to put some points up on the board.
Other Value Plays: 49ers D/ST, Rams D/ST, Matt Gay, Kyle Juszczyk
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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