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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a big Sunday Night Football matchup between two teams that could be seen as rivals over the last decade and a half. Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers (9-4) are heading west to take on Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks (8-5). Let’s see how this one plays out.
Jordan Love has been on fire these last few weeks. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/eowlHMwcD4
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 12, 2024
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Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Packers vs. Seahawks Thursday night NFL DFS showdown slate on December 15. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Josh Jacobs - RB, $17,100 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 239 rushing attempts, 1,053 rushing yards, 34 targets, 27 receptions, 260 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 4.33%
I’ll start tonight’s slate off with Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has been on an absolute heater since Green Bay’s bye in Week 10, rushing for eight touchdowns in the last four games. He’ll get an opportunity to keep the ball rolling tonight against a Seahawks team that’s been very good defensively of late. However, they still rank 26th in stuff rate, 30th in second-level yards, and 28th in open-field yards.
My model projects Jacobs to run for 85.45 yards on 17.18 attempts, adding 2.71 receptions and 19.37 yards on 3.21 targets and 0.74 touchdowns.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, $13,200 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 102 targets, 75 receptions, 911 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: -15.1%
I’ll flip the field and take a look at Jaxon Smith-Njigba next. JSN has arguably emerged as Geno Smith’s top target this season, and he’s put the increased targets he’s seeing to good use. While the matchup leaves a bit to be desired, if this game turns into a shootout, I expect Geno and company to play a large role in it.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 17 Game Pace:
➖98 Receptions
➖1,191 Yards
➖7 TD’sWR1 pic.twitter.com/Uy9t2SL7zL
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) December 14, 2024
My model projects JSN to catch 5.55 of 8.26 targets for 61.66 yards and 0.4 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Zach Charbonnet
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this is my community.. this is my family.. without them this would not happen @WinDailySports @RotoBaller@BaronZito973 @mb_guruDFS #OTC there are others and you know who you are and I love you all for the help! pic.twitter.com/psRCDbCqqL
— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jayden Reed - WR, $8,000 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 13 rushing attempts, 128 rushing yards, 59 targets, 44 receptions, 693 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: -13.9%
I’ll look at another pseudo-top receiver on the other side of things in Jayden Reed. It’s been an up-and-down season for Reed, with more downs than ups in the second half of the campaign.
Reed didn’t touch the ball once in Green Bay’s Week 14 loss to Detroit, seeing just one target throughout the duration of the game. However, he’s primed for a big bounce back in this one against this touch Mike MacDonald defense.
My model projects Reed to run the ball 1.97 times for 13.65 yards and catch 4.81 of his 6.25 targets for 47.71 yards and 0.64 total touchdowns.
Zach Charbonnet - RB, $9,000 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 97 rushing attempts, 400 rushing yards, 43 targets, 36 receptions, 263 receiving yards, eight touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -18.67%
We learned on Friday that Kenneth Walker III would likely not suit up for tonight’s game after being listed as doubtful after not practicing all week. This provides another big opportunity for Charbonnet, who was lightning in his role as the lead back in Week 14. Charbonnet terrorized the Cardinals on Sunday, rushing for 134 yards while adding 59 receiving yards on seven receptions and two touchdowns.
Tonight, my model projects Charbonnet to run for 79.27 yards, adding 4.26 receptions and 31.37 receiving yards on 4.79 targets and 0.73 total touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: D.K. Metcalf, Christian Watson, Jordan Love
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Tucker Kraft - TE, $5,800 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 54 targets, 39 receptions, 521 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: -5%
I’ll look at a pair of tight ends in the value spots for this showdown, starting with Tucker Kraft. Kraft has emerged as one of the top options in this Green Bay offense and now draws a fantastic matchup against the Seahawks, who rank 28th in targets allowed and 23rd in receptions and receiving yards allowed to tight ends.
My model projects Kraft to catch 4.33 of his 5.08 targets for 42.11 yards and 0.33 touchdowns. He is simply too cheap on both sites and, in my opinion, is a must-play on this slate.
Noah Fant - TE, $3,600 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 40 targets, 33 receptions, 329 receiving yards.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 23.6%
I’ll wrap things up with Noah Fant. Truthfully, the Seahawks haven’t gained much from the tight end position this season, but Fant has a chance for a big game in this one. The Packers rank 29th in DVOA against tight ends, and despite ranking 20th in targets allowed to the position, they rank 28th in receptions allowed and 26th in receiving yards allowed.
My model projects Fant to catch 3.61 of 4.41 targets for 38.82 yards and 0.22 touchdowns.
Other Value Options: Tyler Lockett, Dontayvion Wicks, Jason Myers
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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