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Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Packers vs. Eagles Showdown slate on Wild Card Weekend (Jan. 12, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's finally playoff time, and we have what should be a chilly NFC Showdown as Jordan Love and the seven-seed Green Bay Packers (11-6) head to the City of Brotherly Love to take on Jalen Hurts and the second-seed Philadelphia Eagles (14-3). There were some injury storylines this week, including Jordan Love's elbow injury, Jalen Hurts's concussion, and A.J. Brown's knee injury, but all look like they're going to be ready for Sunday afternoon. Let's see how this one plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Packers vs. Eagles NFL DFS showdown slate on January 12. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Saquon Barkley - RB, $17,400 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 345 rushing attempts, 2,005 rushing yards, 43 targets, 33 receptions, 278 receiving yards, 15 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -6.77%
We'll lead this slate off with who else but Saquon Barkley. Last week, all eyes were on whether the Eagles would let Saquon Barkley go for the single season all-time rushing record. As great as it would have been to witness history; the Eagles, both objectively and subjectively, did the right thing by letting him rest. Now it's showtime as the Barkley gets his first real shot at the ultimate goal, a Super Bowl title.
"Dad, how good was Saquon Barkley?" pic.twitter.com/J6LdetdyHs
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) January 9, 2025
He'll have to go through Green Bay first, who ranks a respectable 7th in defensive DVOA against the run. With that said, Green Bay ranks 18th in open field yards allowed, which opens the door for a classic 50+ yard touchdown run by this year's rushing leader. On what should be a cold evening in Philly, the run game will likely be a huge factor here.
My model projects Barkley to run the ball for 90.9 yards on 21.2 carries, adding 3.05 receptions on 3.62 targets for 19.62 yards and 0.77 total touchdowns.
Josh Jacobs - RB, $15,900 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 301 rushing attempts, 1,329 rushing yards, 43 targets, 36 receptions, 342 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -8.47%
We'll flip the field and look at the star running back on the other sideline in Josh Jacobs. Jacobs had himself an excellent season for Green Bay, and really was the key cog in this Green Bay defense. As I just mentioned when discussing Saquon Barkley, it'll be a cold evening in Philly, which leads me to believe both of these offenses will want to control the game on the ground.
Another reason I'm bullish on Josh Jacobs is this matchup is the volume aspect. While Jordan Love practiced in full on Thursday, he did come into this week of in limited fashion as he's dealing with some elbow soreness. Jordan Love is a tough cat, and there's not a doubt in my mind that he'll be a full go on gameday, but how much can he do if this elbow soreness lingers throughout the afternoon?
In the week 1 matchup between the Packers and Eagles Josh Jacobs had two explosive runs. The first for 22 yards and this one for 32 yards. Excited to see if we can get him going again. pic.twitter.com/J2h8Abtp7f
— Packerfan Total Access- Clayton (@packers_access) January 9, 2025
My model projects Jacobs to run the ball 18.4 times for 71.35 yards while adding 2.28 receptions on 3.1 targets for 13.03 yards and 0.45 total touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Reed, Jordan Love
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
A.J. Brown - WR, $10,200 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 97 targets, 67 receptions, 1,079 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. WR1: -6.9%
I'll head back on the Eagles sideline and take a look at their top receiver, A.J. Brown next. It's worth noting that Brown was a limited participant in the Eagles' practice on Wednesday, and did not practice on Thursday, with the Eagles citing it as "knee/rest". With that said, he doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against Green Bay, and is expected to be a full go.
Let's flash back to Week 1, where Brown caught five of 10 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown against this Packers defense in Brazil. Things are a little bit different in the Packers secondary, most importantly that they will be without Jaire Alexander for this one. Alexander is Green Bay's best cornerback, if not their best defensive player overall, aside from perhaps Xavier McKinney. Nevertheless, this opens up the door for a potential big game from the big Eagles receiver.
My model projects Brown to catch 6.03 of 10.21 targets for 82.34 yards and 0.53 touchdowns.
Jayden Reed - WR, $7,600 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 20 rushing attempts, 163 rushing yards, 75 targets, 55 receptions, 857 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. WR1: 7.3%
Let's take a look at Jayden Reed next. Despite the quiet end to the regular season, Reed was able to eclipse 1,000 yards from scrimmage. The good news about Reed's quiet end to the season is that we get a bit of a discount for him on this slate. Unfortunately for Green Bay, we learned that Christian Watson tore his ACL and will be on the shelf for the remainder of the Packers' season, no matter how deep they can go in the playoffs.
It's next man up in the Packers' receiver room, and Reed will now take over as the definitive top receiver in the room, as well as the primary deep threat for this Green Bay offense. This worked out for Reed and the Packers in Brazil, as Reed caught four of his six targets for 138 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 and was able to add a 33-yard rushing touchdown on his only rushing attempt in that game as well.
My model projects Reed to run the ball 1.13 times for 7.99 rushing yards and catch 3.5 of 5.98 targets for 43.79 yards and 0.37 total touchdowns in this one.
Other Flex Options: DeVonta Smith, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Dallas Goedert - TE, $5,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 52 targets, 42 receptions, 496 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. TE: 3.5%
I'll look at a pair of tight ends in my value spots on this showdown, starting with Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert. It's been a tough go for Goedert this season, having played in only ten games. He's done well in those ten games, including last week where he hauled in four of six targets for 55 yards in just two drives against the Giants starters. While I'm a bit concerned that he hasn't played a snap with Jalen Hurts since Week 13 against the Ravens, but I have a feeling they'll pick up right where they left off in that game, where he caught three of four targets for 35 yards and a touchdown.
My model projects Goedert to catch 4.3 of 5.54 targets for 46.28 yards and 0.21 touchdowns here.
Tucker Kraft - TE, $5,400 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 70 targets, 50 receptions, 707 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. TE: -23.8%
I'll wrap things up with Tucker Kraft. Kraft, if nothing else, was consistent for Green Bay this season. He only had more than 80 yards once this season, but only finished with fewer than 20 yards twice. He's seemingly good for four to five targets per game, though he draws a tough matchup against this Philadelphia defense. The Eagles rank top five in targets allowed per game (6.06), receptions allowed per game (4.00), and receiving yards allowed per game (34.76) to tight ends, but with Watson out, the Packers will need Kraft to contribute.
My model projects Kraft to catch 3.51 of 4.86 targets for 31.43 yards and 0.23 touchdowns.
Other Value Options: Brandon McManus, Eagles D/ST, Kenneth Gainwell, Jahan Dotson
Enjoy your weekend, everyone!
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