RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well so far. After last week's Steelers/Dolphins game that ended closer than we may have expected, the Packers will head into Buffalo to take on the Bills which may end up being the blowout we were looking for last week. The Packers are in disarray and have already ruled out their #1 wide receiver Allen Lazard for this game. The Bills are hot and coming off the bye, so let's take a look at how this slate breaks down.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Packers vs. Bills NFL DFS showdown slate on October 30th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
MVP/Captain Plays
Josh Allen - QB, $18,300 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,980 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, four interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 47.4% (1st), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 0.8% (11th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with no one other than Josh Allen. Allen has been on an absolute tear this season en route to a potential MVP campaign. He came up huge against the Chiefs two Sundays ago and now will be fresh off of the bye week to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Bills have a strong passing funnel and don't appear to be slowing down any time soon, and I will be placing Allen at the 1.5x spot at a near 50% clip on both sites.
Aaron Jones - RB, $15,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 22022 Stats: 78 rushing attempts, 432 rushing yards, 33 targets, 26 receptions, 176 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 1.1% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -23% (1st), per Football Outsiders.
If I were to select a captain/MVP from the other side of the field, it won't be Aaron Rodgers but a different Aaron, Aaron Jones. This might not make a ton of sense on the surface -- with the Bills coming in with the top run defense in terms of DVOA per Football Outsiders, and the fact that Green Bay will likely be playing from behind, leaning towards a passing funnel. However, while the Bills are as good as they are against the run, they do tend to somewhat struggle against running backs in the passing game, which could open the door for a bunch of garbage time Jones receptions, and perhaps a touchdown.
Other Captains/MVPs: Gabriel Davis, Stefon Diggs, Aaron Rodgers, Romeo Doubs
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DFS Flex Plays
Aaron Rodgers - QB, $9,800 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1597 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, three interceptions
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 14.9% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -20.8% (4th), per Football Outsiders.
While I won't be putting him in the 1.5x spots much at all in this one, I do like Rodgers as a flex option tonight, for reasons similar to what I mentioned with Aaron Jones. The Packers do have a relative passing funnel in this game, and that will likely be emphasized given the fact they'll most likely be playing from behind. Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over often, and while we haven't seen it much this season, does have that game-breaking ability that very well could keep this game close. I'll trust him to hit the value necessary for him to be in my lineups.
Stefon Diggs - WR, $11,800 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 65 targets, 49 receptions, 656 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Eric Stokes): 11% targets per route, 87% catch rate, 0.26 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
If I'm going to pair a pass-catcher with Josh Allen in my captain spot, I will want at least one of Stefon Diggs or Gabriel Davis. I'll lean toward Diggs here slightly, as he does have the strongest matchup of all the Buffalo receivers in this one. My data model projects the Bills a 61.77% DVOA for their #1 wide receiver, by far the highest of any specific wide receiver for any game on Sunday. He does have a strong matchup against Eric Stokes as well, so I'll be looking for Diggs to have a massive game.
Other Flex Options: Devin Singletary, Aaron Jones, Gabriel Davis
DFS Value Plays
Dawson Knox - TE, $5,200 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 20 targets, 15 receptions, 148 yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Quay Walker): 13% target rate, 79% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
While I want either Diggs or Davis (or both) in all of my Josh Allen lineups, I won't look past Dawson Knox either. Knox had an incredible 2021 season but has gotten off to a relatively slow start to 2022 after battling through some injuries. Nevertheless, Knox has an incredibly strong matchup tonight against Quay Walker and the Packers' defense, with a projected 36.37% DVOA for their tight ends. It may be touchdown-or-bust for Knox, but he is worth taking a shot at his price.
Romeo Doubs - WR, $4,000 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 42 targets, 26 receptions, 234 yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Kaiir Elam): 14% target rate, 77% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
Finally, I'll wrap things up with Romeo Doubs. As I mentioned in the intro earlier, the Packers have ruled out Allen Lazard in this one, which opens up the door for Doubs to be Aaron Rodgers' #1 wide receiver. This is a huge benefit for us in our lineups considering how cheap Doubs is, and the fact that the Packers have a projected 11.67% DVOA for their WR1. Surely he'll be chalk, but it's chalk worth eating on a slate with a lot of expensive top-heavy options.
Other Value Plays: Bills D/ST, AJ Dillon, James Cook, Tyler Bass
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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