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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We've finally reached the summit of the 2022-2023 regular season. Boy, do we have a fun one tonight! The Lions (8-8) head to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers (8-8). There's a lot on the line here, which will be set up earlier in the day as the Rams and Seahawks match up in Seattle. If Seattle loses that game, this game will determine the final NFC playoff spot. Should the Seahawks win that game, Green Bay can still clinch the playoffs with a win.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Lions vs. Packers NFL DFS showdown slate on January 8th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Aaron Rodgers - QB, $15,600 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 3,490 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 11.8% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 10.8% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Aaron Rodgers. A lot of people like to (ironically and otherwise) call games "legacy games." This is not one of those for the back-to-back MVP, but I would assume this is a big game for him on a personal level. The Packers were a relative trainwreck to start this season, and now they have a chance to make it into the playoffs. My model projects Rodgers for 285.95 passing yards tonight and 2.15 touchdowns in this one.
Jamaal Williams - RB, $10,500 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 246 rushing attempts, 994 rushing yards, 16 targets, 12 receptions, 73 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -1.5% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 10.2% (31st), per Football Outsiders.
I'll take a look at Jamaal Williams next. While D'Andre Swift is seemingly healthy again and digging into some of Williams's touches, Williams bounced back last week with 144 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. He now gets a strong matchup against Green Bay, who he had 81 rushing yards on 24 carries back in Week 9. My model projects the volume to take a hit relative to that game but still has him projected for 13.04 carries for 52.12 rushing yards and a 52% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jared Goff, Allen Lazard, Aaron Jones
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DFS Flex Plays
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR, $11,000 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 137 targets, 100 receptions, 1112 yards, and six touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Darnell Savage): 8% target rate, 67% catch rate, 0.16 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll take a look at Williams's teammate, Amon-Ra St. Brown. ARSB only caught four of nine targets for 55 yards back in Week 9 but should have a solid bounce back in this one tonight. My model projects him for 6.15 receptions on 8.61 targets for 74.06 receiving yards and a 44% chance of finding the end zone. He has a strong matchup when being targeted, with a projected 10.83% DVOA.
Allen Lazard - WR, $7,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 94 targets, 56 receptions, 747 yards, and five touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Will Harris): 16% target rate, 70% catch rate, 0.30 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Allen Lazard. While I feel like most folks will be on Christian Watson, I'll take a look at Lazard, who will look to repeat his performance from Week 9 where he had four receptions for 87 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. Tonight, I actually have him out-projecting Watson, catching 4.66 of his 7.22 targets for 67.52 receiving yards and a 39% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Flex Options: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Christian Watson
DFS Value Plays
D.J. Chark Jr. - WR, $5,800 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 48 targets, 27 receptions, 488 yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Jaire Alexander): 16% target rate, 59% catch rate, 0.25 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll take a look at D.J. Chark next. Chark has seen 18 targets over the last four weeks, catching 13 of them for 272 yards and a touchdown. The matchup isn't the best here, as he'll see one of Darnell Savage or Jaire Alexander all night, and a projected DVOA of -18.68% when targeted. I'm going against the model here, as Chark projects just 2.49 receptions on 3.36 targets for 40.36 receiving yards and a 24% chance of finding the end zone.
Romeo Doubs - WR, $5,200 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 65 targets, 42 receptions, 425 yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup: N/A
I'll finish things up with Romeo Doubs. In truth, if I were picking between Chark and Doubs, I would actually pick Doubs in this spot. He has a slightly better matchup, with a projected 3.53% DVOA when being targeted. While he has no matchup, according to PFF, I'm projecting a solid night for him, catching 3.04 of his five targets for 39.73 yards and a 22% chance of finding the end zone. While I slightly prefer Doubs, Randall Cobb isn't a bad shout in this spot either.
Other Value Plays: Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan, Mason Crosby, Shane Zylstra
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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