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It's that time of the year again, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with some Week One Thursday Night Football DFS picks. We have what should be an electric matchup as the high-hope Detroit Lions head into Kansas City to take on the reigning Super Bowl Champion Chiefs. Most are expecting a ton of offense in this matchup. Let's see how this affects our DFS lineups.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Lions vs. Chiefs NFL DFS showdown slate on September 7th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $18,300 (DK), $18,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats (incl. playoffs): 5,953 passing yards, 48 touchdowns, 12 interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 41.1% (1st), per FTN.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 10.96% (23rd), per FTN.
Who better to start off the 2023 season with than the guy who finished on top in 2022? Mahomes is now entering his sixth season under center for the Chiefs, and if last year was any indication, won't be slowing down any time soon.
He gets a strong matchup against the Lions tonight who, despite bringing in multiple additions in the form of C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cam Sutton, and others, struggled in passing defense last season. In a high-octane and likely high-scoring game, I expect the best in the world to be at his best, and worth the price tag.
David Montgomery - RB, $9,900 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 801 rushing yards, 40 targets, 34 receptions, 316 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -7.01% (15th), per FTN.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -12.7% (second), per Football Outsiders
I'll take a look at likely the "chalkiest" DraftKings captain here in David Montgomery. Montgomery was great with the Bears across the last few seasons and now looks to play a part in what many believe to be a very good 1-2 punch with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.
While all of the talk is about Gibbs' work in the passing game, it's assumed that Monty will take over Jamaal Williams's role from 2022 and be the short-yardage/goal-line back. I think he'll see plenty of opportunities and touches in this one, finding the end zone at least once here.
Other Captains/MVPs: Travis Kelce, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff
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DFS Flex Plays
Travis Kelce - TE, $12,000 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats (incl. playoffs): 183 targets, 137 receptions, 1,595 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns.
The most expensive stack in NFL DFS is back for another season. While the attempt of stacking both Mahomes and Kelce is expensive (and frustrating!) for many, it's almost always worth the price tag. While we're of course limited on data points with this being the first true NFL game of the year, ask yourself: outside of Travis Kelce, who is the most reliable pass-catcher on the Chiefs' roster?
While you sit there and scratch your head, you might as well lock Kelce in a majority of your lineups as he soars to another TE1 finish and frankly, may be the highest-scoring player on this TNF slate.
Jared Goff - QB, $9,400 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 4,438 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 29.15% (5th), per FTN.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 6.54% (20th), per FTN.
I'll wrap things up in the "FLEX" category with Lions QB Jared Goff. Goff had himself a resurgent 2022 season in Detroit and now sets his sights ahead as he looks to bring Mo-Town their first playoff berth since 2016.
They'll certainly need his best this week in Kansas City, as we know that even an "elite" defense won't be able to stop Mahomes and the Chiefs (looking at YOU, Jonathan Gannon!).
Regardless, with one of the top offensive lines in football and the Chiefs likely missing Chris Jones on Thursday night, I expect Goff to have some time in the pocket to move the ball around and move the Lions down the field.
Other Flex Options: Isiah Pacheco, Jahmyr Gibbs
DFS Value Plays
Jerick McKinnon - RB, $5,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 351 rushing yards, 78 targets, 61 receptions, 544 receiving yards, ten touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 1.29% (9th), per FTN.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 2.44% (26th), per FTN
Remember when I asked who the most reliable Chiefs pass-catcher was after Travis Kelce? Do you have your answer now? I do, as it's likely Jerick McKinnon. While surely the Chiefs are happy that they found themselves something in 2022 7th-round rookie Isiah Pacheco, we should be happy as it gives us a bonafide value option on this slate.
I expect Andy Reid and the Chiefs to neutralize Aiden Hutchinson off of the edge, and I do believe the screen game will play a huge role in that. Enter McKinnon, who could easily rack up 4-5 catches and perhaps even find the end zone.
Sam LaPorta - TE, $5,000 (DK), $6,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: None
I'll wrap things up with Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. The Lions grabbed LaPorta with the 34th overall pick back in April, and many believe he is set to have himself a strong rookie campaign in Detroit.
LaPorta is now the fifth active tight end from the University of Iowa, joining Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, and Parker Hesse. I'll look for LaPorta to be a solid value option in Week 1 serving as a safety blanket for Jared Goff along with rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs.
Other Value Plays: Skyy Moore, Harrison Butker, Riley Patterson
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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