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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have probably one of if not the worst quarterback matchup of the season in Sunday Night Football tonight, as neither team will have their starter at the beginning of the regular season suit up tonight. It'll be Zach Wilson and the New York Jets (4-4) looking to get over the .500 mark as they take on Aidan O'Connell and the Las Vegas Raiders (4-5).
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Jets vs. Raiders Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on November 12. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Breece Hall - RB, $17,100 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 94 carries, 493 rushing yards, 31 targets, 23 receptions, 199 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -10.64%
I'll start tonight's game off with a pair of running backs in the 1.5x spots. Sure, neither has terrific matchups, but I think both are in decent enough spots given the game script to do well here. Hall projects to 17.17 carries for 83.94 yards and 0.61 touchdowns on the ground, and 3.15 receptions on 4.25 targets for 27.51 yards and 0.13 touchdowns through the air. The projected rushing DVOA for Breece and the Jets aren't great, but it's worth noting that the Raiders rank 30th in both rushing attempts (25.33) and rushing yards (117.78) against this season, so I could see Hall having a big night on the ground.
Josh Jacobs - RB, $16,500 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 159 carries, 506 rushing yards, 43 targets, 28 receptions, 242 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -19.74%
I'll take a look at Josh Jacobs next. Jacobs doesn't project quite as well as Hall but it's still not so bad: 17.4 carries, 70.83 rushing yards, 3.34 receptions on 4.47 targets for 24.04 yards through the air, and 0.6 total touchdowns. While they have a worse projected rushing DVOA and not as much advantage in the defense vs. position categories, they do rank 26th in rushing attempts allowed (24.75) this season. If there's one thing the Raiders like to do, it's establish the run. Based on pure volume, Jacobs is worth a shot in the 1.5x spots tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jets D/ST, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson
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DFS Flex Plays
Davante Adams - WR, $11,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 85 targets, 51 receptions, 573 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: -3.42%
I'll take a look at Davante Adams next. I don't anticipate a whole lot from either passing game tonight, but I'll stick with each team's stud on the outside in the flex spots. Adams projects to 5.3 receptions on 9.42 targets for 61.79 yards and 0.38 touchdowns. It's not an ideal matchup as the Jets have done a great job shutting down receivers this season, but their DVOA against WR1s is far more advantageous than anywhere else in the passing game.
Garrett Wilson - WR, $9,600 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 81 targets, 46 receptions, 549 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: -4.32%
I'll flip the field and look at Garrett Wilson next. Wilson projects a bit better than Adams in this showdown, projecting to 5.29 targets on 8.63 targets for 66.75 yards. The biggest difference here is the touchdowns, as Wilson projects to 0.47 touchdowns in this matchup. Sure, the Raiders defense isn't as powerful as the Jets, it's just hard to trust Zach Wilson. Even still, the Wilson connection is worth taking a shot at given the volume Garrett Wilson sees on a game-to-game basis.
Other Flex Options: Zach Wilson, Aidan O'Connell
DFS Value Plays
New York Jets - D/ST, $5,200 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 19.25 points per game allowed, 22 sacks, eight interceptions, five fumble recoveries, and two touchdowns.
Speaking of the Jets' defense, I'll take a look at them next. The Jets are one of the league's best defenses and should feast on Aidan O'Connell and this Raiders offense. The Jets rank first in pressure rate this season (43%), while also projecting to an 8.87% sack rate. The Raiders will likely, as previously mentioned, establish the run in this one to avoid this defensive line from getting home. While that does lower their ceiling a bit, it also raises their floor as I really can't see the Raiders getting up and down the field often tonight.
Greg Zuerlein - K, $4,400 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 18 field goals made, 19 field goals attempted, 6/6 extra points made/attempted.
I'll wrap things up with Greg Zuerlein. Zuerlein -- aka "Legatron"-- has been very good this season, missing just one kick through the Jets' first eight games. As I've alluded to throughout this article, I feel like offense will be at a premium tonight, and with that fantasy points will also be at a premium. With that said, I think the Jets do a better job at least getting into the defensive side of the 50. I think they'll exploit Zuerlein's big leg tonight, and we could see him knock down multiple 50-yard kicks.
Other Value Options: Daniel Carlson, Raiders D/ST
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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