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John Brubaker has his top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings for tonight's Monday Night Football Jets vs. 49ers showdown slate for Week 1.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have our first Monday Night Football Showdown of the year as we have Aaron Rodgers and the Jets heading out west to take on Brock Purdy and the 49ers. The 49ers are looking to finish the job in 2024 and start their season off on a positive note after falling just short in 2023. Meanwhile, the Jets will look to take a step in a positive direction following their underwhelming 2023 season, as Rodgers is now back and fully healthy once again.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around, and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Jets vs. 49ers NFL DFS showdown slate on Sept 9. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey has been ruled out for Week 1 and will not play against the New York Jets. Jordan Mason is expected to start and immediately becomes a top Showdown DFS consideration as Captain or Flex play.
Christian McCaffrey - RB, San Francisco 49ers - $17,400 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 331 rushing attempts, 1,727 rushing yards, 108 targets, 86 receptions, 716 receiving yards, 26 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 12.31%
I'll start this slate with the chalk, but there is good reason for it here. Not only is McCaffrey the best player on the field more often than not, but he also has the best-projected matchup in this one.
The Jets were excellent against the pass in 2023, ranking third in DVOA (-12.74%), but they fall more towards the middle of the pack against the run, where they rank 14th (-10.39%). They also struggle with running backs in the passing game, ranking 28th in DVOA (14.16%).
My model projects McCaffrey to run the ball nearly 17 times for 86.31 yards while adding 4.38 receptions on 5.7 targets for an additional 36.46 yards and 1.29 touchdowns. He was dealing with a calf issue in the preseason, which may hamper his ceiling in this game, but all reports indicate that he should be a full go.
Rapid Fire #NFL Injury Report:#Packers Jordan Love - Reported 3-6 wks. We'd lean 2-4#49ers Christian McCaffrey - Likely playing, no limits#Bengals Ja'Marr Chase - TBD. Lean playing#Bengals Tee Higgins - Likely out#Lions Jahmyr Gibbs - Full send
1/7
— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) September 8, 2024
Aaron Rodgers - QB, New York Jets - $13,500 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: No stats.
- Projected Pass DVOA: -47.48%
I'll flip the field here and take a look at Aaron Rodgers here. This is certainly a boom-or-bust type of play, and the hope is that Rodgers' 1.5x ownership reflects that. Rodgers played just four snaps last season before tearing his Achilles', and now, after months of rehab, the four-time MVP will take the field once again for the Jets.
This time, it'll be in his home state of California, against the team that many will say "passed" on him in the 2005 NFL draft. Rodgers has played well in "The Bay," averaging 245.4 passing yards while logging 11 touchdowns and just one interception across five games in his career.
My model does not have him projected all that well tonight, going for just 214.81 passing yards, 1.06 touchdowns, and 0.86 interceptions. However, a lot of this is based on the Jets' 2023 data, when they ranked 32nd in offensive passing DVOA (-30.53%), none of which is at the fault of Rodgers.
I don't want to understate how good the 49ers defense is (more on that later), but if Rodgers comes in under 20% owned at the 1.5x spot, he could make people a lot of money in this matchup.
Other Captains/MVPs: Breece Hall, Deebo Samuel Sr., Garrett Wilson, Brock Purdy
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
DFS Flex Plays
Deebo Samuel Sr. - WR, San Francisco 49ers - $9,600 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 43 rushing attempts, 240 rushing yards, 111 targets, 73 receptions, 1,038 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: -22.89%
I'll look at the 49ers receiver and all-around weapon Deebo Samuel next. Deebo had a very good 2023, but most would consider it a down year relative to his seasons prior. Nevertheless, I like Deebo to have a big game on Monday Night Football.
As you'll see above, my model considers Samuel at WR2 following the Brandon Aiyuk breakout in 2023. However, Aiyuk was engaged in contract negotiations with the 49ers all summer, finally aligning with the team a deal just over a week ago.
Many thought Aiyuk's tenure in San Francisco was coming to a close after he requested a trade from the team, but he is back after signing a four-year extension.
I say this about Aiyuk when discussing my rationale for playing Deebo in this showdown because I believe this gives him a boost. With Aiyuk on the field, Deebo will likely avoid Sauce Gardner for the majority of this game.
While the Jets overall have a staunch pass defense, I think Deebo's ability in the run game, as well as his ability to gain yards after contact, will be huge in this matchup. My model projects him for 4.15 receptions on 6.17 targets, amassing 69.49 all-purpose yards and 0.34 touchdowns.
Mike Williams - WR, New York Jets - $6,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats (3 games): 26 targets, 19 receptions, 249 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: -25.95%
I'll dig into the value bin early here, looking at Mike Williams instead of Garrett Wilson. Wilson is excellent, and I believe he will generate the most production on the Jets' side of the ball tonight. However, Williams is just too cheap in this spot.
A career hampered by injuries has placed a cap on what Williams could have been as the soon-to-be 30-year-old laces them up for his eighth NFL season. Williams played just three games last year but was phenomenal in his final games with the Chargers, showing off his explosiveness before tearing his ACL, which ended his 2023 season.
While I think that the ceiling has been lowered on Williams this season, I believe he will outperform my model's projections in this game. My model has him slated for 2.32 receptions on 4.62 targets for just 26.53 yards and 0.13 touchdowns.
I know that the 49ers defense is excellent, but given the relatively expensive player pool on this slate, I'm okay with having a lot of Mike Williams in my lineups.
Aaron Rodgers to Mike Williams: pic.twitter.com/OinL3fhlhA
— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) September 7, 2024
Other Flex Options: Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Garrett Wilson
DFS Value Plays
San Francisco 49ers D/ST - $5,200 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 18.45 points per game allowed, 53 sacks, 25 interceptions, eight fumble recoveries, and one touchdown.
Now we'll take a look at the 49ers defense. We are relatively limited in "value" options on this slate, and the thought process of playing San Francisco's defense in a 49er-heavy lineup makes sense to me.
After a top-five DVOA finish in 2023, the 49ers defense looks to test Aaron Rodgers's mobility and keep the Jets' offense at bay for a large part of this game. Rodgers seldom turns the ball over, but I'll be interested to see how he reacts to Nick Bosa and the 49ers' pass rush that ranked 3rd in pressure rate (39%) in 2023.
As mentioned, I consider Rodgers a "boom-or-bust" option in the 1.5x spot. I will not be playing a 1.5x Rodgers and this defense in the same lineup, but I will "hedge my bet" on Rodgers and play this defense in SF-heavy lineups if this one turns into a rout.
Greg Zuerlein - K, New York Jets - $4,400 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 35/38 field goal attempts/made, 15/16 extra point attempts/made.
I'll wrap things up with the Jets' kicker, Greg Zuerlein. Zuerlein, affectionately known as "Legatron," comes into his 13th NFL season. The 36-year-old kicker showed he still had it in 2023, knocking down 92.1% of his field goals, including five of six attempts from 50+ yards last season.
This is a pretty positive matchup for Zuerlein. While this game could end one-sided, I have to imagine that the combination of Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall should be able to get New York's offense into field goal range at least a handful of times.
Other Value Plays: Jake Moody, Tyler Conklin, Jordan Mason
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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