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The NFL's regular season and traditional fantasy football leagues have come to an end, but with the Divisional Round set to begin, it's time to participate in more single-game DFS tournaments. Trevor Lawrence will make his second career playoff start, while the 27-year-old Patrick Mahomes is set to play in the 12th playoff game of his career.
This Jaguars-Chiefs contest features fantasy studs on both offenses, but DFS contests are won by identifying under-the-radar sleepers and value plays. Kansas City is an 8.5 points favorite and this AFC contest has the highest projected point total on the slate (53.0). All in all, this could be the most exciting and enticing single-game contest this weekend in a matchup between two quarterbacks who could run the conference for years to come.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Jaguars vs. Chiefs NFL DFS showdown slate on January 21st. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with our NFL DFS analysts or find us on Twitter!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Travis Kelce - TE, $16,500 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 152 targets, 110 receptions, 1,338 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns
- 19.7 DK points per game
- Jaguars rank 27th against fantasy tight ends (DraftKings)
At this point in Kelce's career, it's easy to pitch him as a DFS captain. However, I'll do it anyway. Kelce has been the most dominant tight end over the last half-decade and has eight games of 20.3 or more DK points this season. Against Jacksonville in Week 10, Kelce caught six passes for 81 yards and one touchdown. That's not even a ceiling performance for the future Hall-of-Fame tight end, and his ceiling outcome is what we're chasing against the weak-versus-tight ends Jaguars D. This selection will be chalky, so we'll have to make up for it later on.
Trevor Lawrence - QB, $15,600 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 4,113 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions, 291 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns
- No. 6 QB in total fantasy points from Weeks 12-18
- Chiefs rank 29th against fantasy quarterbacks (DraftKings)
While you can easily make a case for Mahomes at captain/MVP, Lawrence has just as much price-based upside in this contest. Whether the Chiefs get out to a big lead or this contest is a back-and-forth-affair, Lawrence will be forced to be a high-volume passer on Saturday. Lawrence has hit his stride as a passer and has underrated upside as a rusher, so he's a viable captain play. Sure, he might commit a few turnovers, but his passing yards and touchdowns upside far outweigh those concerns. Lawrence at captain/MVP matched with a Chiefs' runback stack is a formula for success in this single-game tournament.
Other Captains/MVPs: Patrick Mahomes, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Zay Jones
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DFS Flex Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $12,400 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 5,250 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions
- Surpassed 30.5 DK points in six games
- 28 touchdowns, seven interceptions in 11 career playoff games
Again, Mahomes can easily be your chalk MVP or captain pick, but to save some money and/or avoid chalk, I like him slotted in as our first flex choice. It's hard to imagine a lineup without Mahomes, but since he carries a hefty price tag, we'll have to get creative and dive deep with some other flex plays. Mahomes is only rivaled by Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen when it comes to upside, so he can single-handily carry a team and a DFS lineup into the green in DFS tournaments. The tougher part is figuring out which guys to stack with him and which players to play on the opposing offense.
Zay Jones - WR, $6,400 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 121 targets, 82 receptions, 823 yards, five touchdowns
- Chiefs rank 26th against fantasy wide receivers (DK)
- Four games of at least 21.4 DK points
Jones is still arguably underpriced in DraftKings, as his ceiling is far above some of the players priced ahead of him. Remember, DFS contests are all about players' ceilings, so I'm not concerned with the boom-or-bust nature of Jones' profile. Whether you have Lawrence at captain/MVP and want to stack Jones with him or are playing Jones as a runback to a Mahomes-Kelce stack, he has great value in this single-game high-flying matchup. Jones has a 109-yard-three-touchdown game on his 2022 resume and his ceiling has rivaled anyone on either team we can choose from.
Other Flex Options: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Christian Kirk, Jerick McKinnon, Kadarius Toney
DFS Value Plays
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - WR, $5,200 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 81 targets, 42 receptions, 687 receiving yards, two touchdowns
- 14.6 average target distance (7th), 16.4 yards per reception (8th)
- Jacksonville allows 6.7 yards per pass attempt (12th-most)
Valdes-Scantling is the picture-perfect DFS bargain as one of the premier boom-or-bust options in the NFL. While MVS saw just 4.8 targets per game in his first year in Kansas City, he's been a few inches away from scoring deep touchdowns on several occasions this season. His role is pretty clear -- stretch the defense and score on a long ball if it's open. With Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster operating in the middle of the field, I like the dart throw on MVS to deliver on a long ball and deliver at his price tag. He can be the ideal flex play with just one big reception. Mecole Hardman (pelvis) has already been ruled. Skyy Moore will play after sitting out Week 18 with a hand injury, but he's unlikely to be a big factor in his playoff debut.
Evan Engram - TE, $5,800 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 98 targets, 73 receptions, 766 receiving yards, four touchdowns
- Games of 42.2, 21.3, 22.3 DK points in three of last six contests
- Chiefs allow 16th-most DK points to tight end
Engram is more of a value on DraftKings, but he could be the final piece of the puzzle in a game that projects to be a shootout. The veteran is in the middle of the best stretch of his NFL career, so I like riding the red-hot Jaguars pass-catchers on the other side of a Chiefs QB-pass-catchers stack. Again, DFSers will have to call upon bottom-tier players to afford a single-game lineup as most assets are expensive in this spot. Engram has the right balance of price and upside.
Other Value Plays: Riley Patterson, JaMycal Hasty, Justin Watson
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