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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're fortunate enough to have two Monday Night Football games this autumn evening, starting with Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars (0-2) heading up north to take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (2-0). As you can see from the records, these two teams have started their 2024 campaigns on two very different trajectories. They will now meet, and this one should be a tough, gritty matchup.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Jaguars vs. Bills NFL DFS showdown slate on Sept. 23. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts whenever you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills - $18K (DK), $17.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 371 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, 11 rushing attempts, 41 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, one fumble lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 26.19%
As excited as I am to watch this game, I think it leaves a lot to be desired from a fantasy perspective. You'll notice when reading this article that my lineups will be extremely Bills-heavy. With that said, I'll start tonight's slate off with Josh Allen.
Despite losing his top two receivers in the offseason, Allen has put together a solid first two weeks of the season. Despite only running the ball twice last week, I think the door - or should I say doors - opens up for him on the ground, creating a solid fantasy floor and safe option at the 1.5x spots.
A gritty TD from Josh Allen 😤
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/ztGgJyWvRm
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 8, 2024
My model projects Allen to throw for 246.28 yards and 1.85 touchdowns while adding 39.99 yards and 0.54 touchdowns on the ground. He's the highest-projected player on the slate in this one by far.
James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills - $16.2K (DK), $15.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 30 rushing attempts, 149 rushing yards, four targets, four receptions, 49 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -5.63%
James Cook will be standing just a few feet behind Josh Allen tonight. You could make the argument that Cook has been the Bills' best offensive player through the first few weeks of 2024. I briefly mentioned a Bills onslaught in this showdown, and if that ends up being the case, you're going to want Cook in the 1.5x spot in at least a handful of your lineups.
My model projects Cook for 87.82 all-purpose yards and 0.55 touchdowns on Monday Night Football. I could see Cook reaching his ceiling tonight not only by finding the end zone but also in the passing game, where Jacksonville ranks in the bottom third in terms of DVOA against running backs.
Other Captains/MVPs: Travis Etienne Jr., Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Brenton Strange
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
DFS Flex Plays
Khalil Shakir - WR, Buffalo Bills - $8.6K (DK), $10K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: Eight targets, eight receptions, 96 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2 (2023): -7.97%
While I'll want a lot of Cook should this game end up in a rout, I'll expect the Bills' passing game to get there. I'll have shares of each of the top three pass-catchers for Buffalo, starting with Khalil Shakir. Shakir has had a relatively quiet start to 2024 but has been able to grab all of his targets to this point.
Despite scoring a touchdown in Week 1, he played just 53% of the snaps. That number jumped to 69% in Week 2 (nice), and with the increased snap count, more targets. He's projected to catch 3.81 of 5.23 targets tonight for 34.36 yards and 0.3 touchdowns.
Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills - $8.2K (DK), $12K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: Six targets, five receptions, 44 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE (2023): -2.15%
Aside from Cook, I'm starting to sound like a broken record when talking about "slow starts" and this Bills offense. Hey, there were a lot of changes on that side of the ball this off-season, and with change always comes growing pains. This comes along with the territory, and I think we're on the verge of the "Kincaid Breakout Game."
It's a good matchup for it, as the Jaguars allow 11% more fantasy points than the league average, adjusted for DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. My model projects Kincaid to get the lion's share of targets for the Bills tonight with 6.41. He's projected to catch 4.57 of those for 45.91 yards and 0.41 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Travis Etienne Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Trevor Lawrence
DFS Value Plays
Keon Coleman - WR, Buffalo Bills - $5.8K (DK), $10.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: Six targets, four receptions, 51 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1 (2023): -7.89%
I'm getting a bit winded talking about Bills players on this slate, and rest assured, there is no malice intended toward the Jaguars or their fans here. The final player I'll mention in this spot is Keon Coleman. Coleman had a solid debut in Week 1, but all of his stats for this season came from that opening game, as he was silent on the stat sheet against the Dolphins, failing to bring in his only target.
For this reason, we get a bit of a discount on Coleman, who will likely be the higher-owned Bills receiver in my lineups, as my model projects his and Shakir's output to be relatively similar. Coleman projects to 3.59 receptions on 5.73 targets for 44.19 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns.
Brenton Strange - TE, Jacksonville Jaguars - $3K (DK), $9K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024: Six targets, three receptions, 65 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE (2023): -5.42%
I'll wrap things up with the sole Jaguar of my "top six" in Brenton Strange. The Jaguars will be down Evan Engram again in Week 3 as he deals with a hamstring injury. Strange slotted in extremely well in his debut against the Browns and will look to keep that momentum rolling against Buffalo. My model projects him to bring in 3.3 receptions on 5.88 targets for 32.08 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Without Evan Engram, Brenton Strange ranked 11th in target share on 3rd/4th downs in Week 2. Strange tied with Gabe Davis for the team-high 23.3% target share overall.
Here's a wild or strange stat - he ranks 1st on JAX in targets per route run at 27% (min. 10 routes) in 2024. pic.twitter.com/majDRjLdWl
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) September 17, 2024
Other Value Plays: Gabe Davis, Bills D/ST, Dawson Knox, Ray Davis
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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