RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! This should be an interesting matchup between two teams that had two completely different games last weekend, as the New York Giants (2-5) head into Pittsburgh to take on Russell Wilson and the Steelers (5-2). The Steelers are coming off a strong win against the Jets, while the Giants are coming off a blowout loss to the Eagles. Let's see how this one plays out.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Giants vs. Steelers NFL DFS showdown slate on October 28. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts whenever you'd like!
MVP/Captain Plays
Malik Nabers - WR, New York Giants - $15K (DK), $16.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 60 targets, 39 receptions, 427 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs. WR1: -47.7%
The issue with this game tonight is that we're looking at two teams who like to control the ball down the field while taking time off the clock. This forces me to stack the top players and fill in the remainder of my lineups with value guys.
With that said, I'll start with the slate off with the most expensive player on the slate, Malik Nabers. Nabers was disgruntled following the Giants Week 7 performance against Philadelphia and is looking to bounce back in a matchup with one of the league's toughest defenses tonight.
Malik Nabers was asked if the Eagles' defense did anything differently in the first half that he hadn't seen on film:
"Watch the target tape. That was it. I was open." pic.twitter.com/QEVtCBzNBE
— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) October 21, 2024
My model projects Nabers to catch 7.23 of 9.87 targets tonight for 73.48 yards and 0.45 touchdowns. I don't expect the Giants to find success in the running game, which creates a ceiling opportunity through Nabers as Brian Daboll will look to run the offense through him.
Russell Wilson - QB, Pittsburgh Steelers - $14.4K (DK), $15.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 264 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, three rushing attempts, three rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 13.97%
We'll flip the field and look at Russell Wilson next. The decision to start the veteran quarterback on Sunday Night Football against the Jets was the talk of the town during Week 7 with everybody, myself included, questioning the decision. It ended up being a great decision, as Wilson showed that he still had some gas left in the tank.
See you Monday. @steelers pic.twitter.com/m3RQNSgKDC
— Russell Wilson (@DangeRussWilson) October 26, 2024
My model projects Wilson to throw for 184.71 yards and 1.21 touchdowns, adding 20.79 yards and 0.33 touchdowns with his legs. The projections aren't necessarily impressive, but I think the Steelers have found their passing game with Wilson and will take another step forward tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: George Pickens, Najee Harris, Calvin Austin III, Wan'Dale Robinson
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DFS Flex Plays
Najee Harris - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers - $9.2K (DK), $13.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 117 rushing attempts, 478 rushing yards, 20 targets, 14 receptions, 135 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -15.82%
I'll stick with the Steelers offense in the FLEX positions, and pieces of their offense will likely make up most of these spots. I'll start with Najee Harris, who was incredibly efficient behind Wilson last week on SNF. He ran for nearly five yards a carry and a touchdown. He's the lead back in this Pittsburgh offense, and I'll expect Pittsburgh to dominate the game script, running the football for as long as it's efficient.
My model projects Harris to get under 15 carries tonight, running for 66.65 yards and 0.43 touchdowns. He didn't do anything in the passing game last week, seeing just one target, but my model has him catching 2.21 passes this week for 14.11 yards.
George Pickens - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers - $9.8K (DK), $12.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 53 targets, 31 receptions, 474 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: 28.8%
Probably the biggest beneficiary of the change at quarterback, George Pickens went off against the Jets last Sunday, catching five of nine targets for 111 receiving yards and a touchdown. While Russell Wilson isn't the quarterback he was a few years ago, he's never been afraid to throw the ball up to his receivers and give them a chance to make a play. That was clear as day against New York last week, and I think the trend continues into tonight.
Tonight, my model projects Pickens to catch 5.43 of 8.73 targets for 67.24 yards and 0.47 touchdowns. I still find that Pickens has a bit of "boom or bust" to him, I think he's an exceptional option in the MVP spot as well, and you could reap massive benefits should he hit his ceiling.
Other Flex Options: Pat Freiermuth, Daniel Jones, Wan'Dale Robinson
DFS Value Plays
Darius Slayton - WR, New York Giants - $5.8K (DK), $8K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 38 targets, 25 receptions, 312 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs Other WR: 24.9%
I'll look at a receiver from each team in the value spots, starting with Darius Slayton. After back-to-back games with 11 targets against Seattle and Cincinnati, Slayton saw just a single target last week against Philadelphia. I would expect some positive regression there.
My model agrees, projecting Slayton to catch 3.98 of 5.22 targets for 35.36 yards and 0.21 touchdowns. Slayton draws the best matchup among the Giants receivers tonight, so we should see him produce in the bottom of our lineups.
Calvin Austin III - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers - $3K (DK), $7.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 21 targets, 11 receptions, 203 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs Other WR: 28.1%
I'll wrap things up with my favorite among all of my value plays with Calvin Austin. My reasoning is a bit nuanced. For one, the Giants struggle against "other" receivers, as indicated above. On top of that, the Giants struggle in the second level and the open field, ranking 29th and 31st in each, respectively.
My model projects Austin to catch just 1.66 of 3.06 targets for 21.34 yards and 0.13 touchdowns. I have a hunch that Austin will not only get behind the secondary but potentially get slippery on a short or intermediate pass in the middle of the field and break one for a touchdown.
I love Austin tonight, and will even make some lineups with him at captain while I load up with some of the other high-priced guys.
Other Value Plays: Chris Boswell, Van Jefferson, Theo Johnson
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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