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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Giants vs Eagles showdown slate on 01/21. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with a Wild Card Weekend Showdown. We have another inter-divisional matchup here, as the New York Giants (9-7-1) head into Lincoln Financial Field to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3). The hardest thing in football is to beat a team three times in one season, but Vegas doesn't think that cliche applies in this one, as Jalen Hurts and the Eagles come into this one as 7.5-point favorites. Let's take a look at how this affects our DFS lineups for this game.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the end of the season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Giants vs. Eagles NFL DFS showdown slate on January 21st. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jalen Hurts - QB, $17,700 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 3,701 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 760 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 23.9% (ninth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 9.2% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Jalen Hurts. There's a lot of uncertainty about Hurts following the Eagles' season finale and ultimately the health and strength of his shoulder. After being taken off the injury report earlier in the week it's safe to say that Hurts is good enough that the shoulder will likely be a non-issue. My model projects him for 251.22 passing yards and 1.87 touchdowns tonight while adding 61.07 rushing yards and a 70% chance of finding the end zone with his legs.
Daniel Jones - QB, $15,300 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 3,506 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, five interceptions, 786 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 20.2% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -15.5% (first), per Football Outsiders
Daniel Jones is coming off arguably the best game of his career if you consider the spot that it was in. He threw for 301 passing yards and two touchdowns while adding 78 yards on the ground. He now gets a matchup with the number one pass defense in terms of DVOA, though the Eagles have struggled a bit of late. My model projects Jones to throw for 220.88 yards and 1.37 touchdowns while adding 44.45 yards and a 27% chance of scoring a touchdown on the ground.
Other Captains/MVPs: Saquon Barkley, Isaiah Hodgins, DeVonta Smith
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DFS Flex Plays
A.J. Brown - WR, $10,800 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 145 targets, 88 receptions, 1,496 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Fabian Moreau): 17% targets per route, 63% catch rate, 0.29 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll take a look at a pair of Eagles pass catchers in the flex spots tonight. I'll start with A.J. Brown, who has the best matchup advantage among all wide receivers across all games this weekend. Brown and Hurts have been a formidable duo all season, and now we get to watch them work in the playoffs. My model projects Brown for 5.67 receptions on 8.63 targets for 82.52 yards and a 61% chance of finding the end zone.
Dallas Goedert - TE, $6,200 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 69 targets, 55 receptions, 702 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Julian Love): 9% targets per route, 71% catch rate, 0.16 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll take a look at Dallas Goedert next. I think this game is going to be a huge game for Goedert. While the numbers say that Brown has a great matchup, and they're good enough that I'm willing to play him in this spot, there is a chance that he gets bracketed by the Giants' defense which could open up the middle of the field for Dallas Goedert. The Giants ran a lot of zone coverage against the Vikings last week, and T.J. Hockenson made them pay. While my model projects Goedert for 4.64 receptions on 6.24 targets for 54.38 yards and a 41% chance of finding the end zone, I think he goes for a lot more, and I may take him to have 100+ receiving yards on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Other Flex Options: Miles Sanders, Darius Slayton
DFS Value Plays
Daniel Bellinger - TE, $4,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 37 targets, 32 receptions, 285 receiving yards, and four touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Kyzir White): 14% targets per route, 74% catch rate, 0.20 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll start the value plays with another tight end, Daniel Bellinger. Bellinger didn't play in either of the games against the Eagles this season, but I rate him as a solid play this week. The Giants have a projected DVOA of -4.04% when targeting their tight ends, but Kyzir White and Josiah Scott have made the Eagles relatively vulnerable in the middle of the field. My model projects Bellinger for 2.94 receptions on 4.03 targets for 26.5 yards and a 13% touchdown projection, which I think should be much higher given that he's scored four touchdowns in just 13 games this season, including one last week.
Boston Scott - RB, $4,600 (DK), $6,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 54 rushing attempts, 217 rushing yards, six targets, five receptions, 15 receiving yards, and three touchdowns
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 15.4% (first), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 11.6% (32nd), per Football Outsiders.
I'll finish things up with who else but Boston Scott. You don't get the nickname "Giant Killer" for no reason, especially when you're 5'6". Scott has scored 17 touchdowns in his entire career, ten of which have come against the Giants. This is strictly a gut-feeling play, as Scott is third on the Eagles' running back depth chart, and my model has him projected for 26.41 rushing yards on 3.18 carries and a 20% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Value Plays: Eagles D/ST, Graham Gano, Jake Elliott
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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