RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a fun showdown of two potentially high-powered offenses taking the field for Monday Night Football as Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons (0-1) head to Lincoln Financial Field to take on Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles (1-0). The Falcons are looking to get their first win with their new quarterback, while the Eagles will look to gain a game on the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. They will attempt this without A.J. Brown, who was ruled out of this game with a hamstring injury.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Falcons vs. Eagles NFL DFS showdown slate on Sept 16. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like!
MVP/Captain Plays
Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles - $15.9K (DK), $17.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: 24 rushing attempts, 109 rushing yards, two targets, two receptions, 23 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -4.99%
I'll start things off for this showdown with Saquon Barkley. Barkley was excellent in his Eagles debut in Brazil last week, and both he and the Eagles will want to recreate some of that magic in their first game at home.
Barkley gets a boost as he effectively becomes the "1B" in this Eagles offense with A.J. Brown (hamstring) being ruled out. The Eagles will want to get the ground game going to open things up for receivers DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson, and tight end Dallas Goedert.
My model projects Barkley to run the ball 17 times for 79.96 yards (4.7 YPC), adding 2.67 receptions and 21.19 receiving yards on 4.12 targets, and 0.72 touchdowns.
Saquon Barkley is having one of the greatest team debuts of all time.
📺: #GBvsPHI on Peacock pic.twitter.com/Hvx7tUzGkI
— NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2024
Kyle Pitts - TE, Atlanta Falcons - $10.2K (DK), $14K (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: Three targets, three receptions, 26 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE (2023): 19.3%
I'll flip the field and look at Kyle Pitts as my second 1.5x option on this slate. Pitts and Atlanta's offense was relatively quiet in their Week 1 showdown against the Steelers. However, I expect Pitts to bounce back in a big way on Monday Night Football.
Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins was stiff in his first game following his Achilles injury. With that, he got the ball out extremely quickly in Week 1. If the Falcons offense operates in the same way in Week 2, I anticipate a lot of short passes to the middle of the field to Pitts and Robinson.
The Eagles' defense has a gap in the middle of the field, with linebackers Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean working well downhill but struggling in coverage. My model projects Pitts to catch 4.34 of his 6.33 targets for 50.71 yards and 0.28 touchdowns.
"HEY KIRK I'M OPEN!!!"
📺: #PITvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/zz3kBdzazQ— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
Other Captains/MVPs: DeVonta Smith, Bijan Robinson, Jalen Hurts
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
DFS Flex Plays
DeVonta Smith - WR, Philadelphia Eagles - $9.6K (DK), $11.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: Eight targets, seven receptions, 84 receiving yards
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: 5.88%
I'll highlight Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith as my first flex play of the night. Smith didn't do anything flashy in the Eagles' Week 1 matchup against the Packers, but was certainly reliable, especially when it mattered.
Like Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith can anticipate a usage boost with A.J. Brown being ruled out of this game. With this being the case, he can expect to see Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell lined up across from him often. Terrell is a fantastic corner, but Smith will win his fair share of reps.
My model expects "The Slim Reaper" to see the lion's share of targets tonight, with 9.16. He's projected to catch 5.95 of them for 72.26 yards and 0.48 touchdowns. Given the situation, he's a "must-play" on this slate for me.
Bijan Robinson - RB, Atlanta Falcons - $10.4 K (DK), $9K (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: 18 rushing attempts, 68 rushing yards, five targets, five receptions, 43 receiving yards.
- Projected Rushing DVOA: -11.66%
I'll take a look at Falcons running back Bijan Robinson next. After watching the Falcons/Steelers game in Week 1, it felt like it was the "Bijan show" and I'm expecting more of the same in this one.
The Eagles struggled against the run against the Packers last Friday, yielding 163 rushing yards on just 21 carries. This included multiple 20-yard runs, including a 33-yard touchdown run by wide receiver Jayden Reed. Some will attribute the field conditions as one of the reasons that both teams were incredibly efficient on the ground in Brazil, but I think there was more to it than that.
With Bijan's combination of explosiveness and elusiveness, I think his ceiling is extremely high against this Eagles' defense that, in my opinion, has tackling issues. My model projects Robinson to carry the ball 16.9 times for 74.88 yards (4.43 YPC). He also projects to add 3.68 receptions on 5.08 targets for 26.5 yards and 0.73 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Jalen Hurts, Drake London, Dallas Goedert, Kirk Cousins
DFS Value Plays
Jahan Dotson - WR, Philadelphia Eagles - $4K(DK), $9.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: One target.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: -15.76%
I'll look at one of the newest Eagles for my first value play in Jahan Dotson. Dotson was essentially silent in the Eagles' Week 1 matchup, with the ball coming in his direction just once. Given that he was traded to the team late in the summer, and the Eagles have plenty of offensive weapons, this didn't surprise anyone in Philadelphia.
Dotson now has his opportunity to put his best foot forward for Philly, as he slots into the pseudo-number two receiver spot. My model projects him to catch 2.7 of his 4.95 targets for 32.17 yards and 0.21 touchdowns. He will likely be among the highest-owned players on the slate, and I'll have a good share of him in my lineups.
Ray-Ray McCloud III - WR, Atlanta Falcons - $3K (DK), $9.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1: Seven targets, four receptions, 52 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs 'Other WR': 18.43%
I'll wrap tonight's slate off with Ray-Ray McCloud III. As a Kyle Pitts and Drake London owner in season-long fantasy, it was more than a bit frustrating to see McCloud eat up seven targets in Atlanta's Week 1 matchup against Pittsburgh. This provides a pretty solid outlook for McCloud at least in this game, as I believe Kirk Cousins will continue to look to get the ball out of his hands early and let his skill position guys work in the open field.
My model disagrees with my outlook on McCloud, projecting him for just 2.76 receptions on 3.99 targets for 29.57 yards and 0.21 touchdowns. I think he's an excellent value play tonight, and hopefully, he comes in lower-owned than expected. Given his target share last week, though, I doubt it.
Other Value Plays: Darnell Mooney, Jake Elliott, Britain Covey, Grant Calcaterra
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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