RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a Monday Night Football showdown which, on paper, looks like it’s going to be a shootout. Tua Tagovailoa (2-6) and the Miami Dolphins are headed out west to take on Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (4-4). Both teams are looking to take a step forward and while the Rams have already begun turning the corner, Miami is looking to do so, and fast.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Dolphins vs. Rams NFL DFS showdown slate on November 11. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts whenever you'd like!
MVP/Captain Plays
Puka Nacua - WR, Los Angeles Rams - $13.5K (DK), $16.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 17 targets, 12 receptions, 152 receiving yards.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs. WR2: -8.7%
I’ll start this slate off with Puka Nacua. After Nacua’s impressive season debut against the Vikings in Week 8, he had a quiet Week 9, catching just one of his four targets for 11 yards. This changes tonight, in my opinion. Despite the negative DVOA against “WR2s”, Miami struggles against top receivers in opposing offenses.
My model projects Nacua to catch 6.4 of 9.53 targets for 77.3 yards and 0.47 touchdowns. Despite the negative DVOA against “WR2s”, Miami struggles against top receivers in opposing offenses. As Nacua and Cooper Kupp are more a "1A and 1B" receiving combination than a "one and two" combination, it's worth noting that the Dolphins have a 30.4% defensive DVOA against "number one receivers".
De'Von Achane - RB, Miami Dolphins - $14.1K (DK), $15.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 93 rushing attempts, 420 rushing yards, 42 targets, 37 receptions, 302 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -1.95%
I’ll flip the field and take a look at De’Von Achane next. Despite his price tag, I feel we get a steal with Achane nearly every week due to his “dual-threat” ability as a fantasy player. Achane benefits in a matchup against a Rams defense that has not only struggled to stop the run but also ranks dead last in the NFL against running backs in the passing game (39.2%).
De'Von Achane averages 10.0 rushing FPG (~RB17) and 17.1 receiving FPG (~WR10) in games with Tua Tagovailoa
Owning Achane is basically like rostering Amon-Ra St. Brown (15.9 receiving FPG) and Jordan Mason (10.8 rushing FPG), and getting to start them both in one roster spot
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 4, 2024
My model projects Achane to run the ball 11.58 times for 52.61 yards while adding just over five receptions on 6.45 targets for 43.67 yards and 0.58 total touchdowns. I think he’s a bit under-projected, as I believe this game could go back and forth for four quarters.
Other Captains/MVPs: Kyren Williams, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, Cooper Kupp
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DFS Flex Plays
Kyren Williams - RB, Los Angeles Rams - $10.8K (DK), $13.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 161 rushing attempts, 601 rushing yards, 25 targets, 20 receptions, 116 receiving yards, ten touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 5.05%
I’ll look at a running back and a receiver from the opposite side of the field in my flex spots, starting with Kyren Williams. With running backs like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry seemingly grabbing major media headlines week after week, Williams’ campaign has gone under the radar. Williams has been a workhorse for the Rams lately, with 20+ rushing attempts in five of his last six starts.
Most rush TD this season
Derrick Henry 12
Jalen Hurts 10
James Cook 8
Kyren Williams 8 pic.twitter.com/PyfyJ1syC4— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 10, 2024
Tonight, my model projects Williams to run the ball 17.23 times for 81.76 yards, adding 2.09 receptions on 3.24 targets for 16.5 yards and 1.01 total touchdowns. While he’s projected a slight dip in touches relative to his season averages, I think he’ll be more efficient with those touches against a 27th-ranked Miami run defense.
Jaylen Waddle - WR, Miami Dolphins - $6.6K (DK), $12.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 38 targets, 28 receptions, 310 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: 13.4%
I’ll take a look at Jaylen Waddle next. As a guy with Waddle shares in season-long fantasy leagues, I feel very strongly about how his 2024 season has gone so far, as he’s eclipsed 10 PPR points just once this season. This is, of course, hardly Waddle's fault, but I and many others hope to see a mid-season turnaround out of the Alabama product.
Waddle projects 5.18 receptions on 7.14 targets for 68.09 yards and 0.35 touchdowns tonight. He draws the best matchup among all receivers for Miami, and as he continues to re-establish his connection with Tua Tagovailoa, he’s inevitably due for a breakout game.
Other Flex Options: Tyreek Hill, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp
DFS Value Plays
Jonnu Smith - TE, Miami Dolphins - $4.4K (DK), $7.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 40 targets, 30 receptions, 302 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 12.1%
Speaking of Dolphins' pass-catchers in great matchups, we’ll look at Jonnu Smith. Smith has seen consistent targets in each of the two games since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury, with six targets in each game. Now, he'll take on a Rams defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against tight ends.
Teams have been targeting this hole in the Los Angeles defense lately, as the Rams have allowed nine targets per game to the position across their last four games. My model projects Smith to see just 5.07 targets tonight, catching 4.11 for 41.7 yards and 0.28 touchdowns.
Colby Parkinson - TE, Los Angeles Rams - $3.4K (DK), $7.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 38 targets, 23 receptions, 214 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: -11.2%
I’ll wrap things up by doubling up on the tight end position with Colby Parkinson. After strong signs early on in the season, particularly while the Rams were without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Parkinson’s production has halted. He’s seen just four targets in the last three weeks, including going target-less in the Rams’ Week 9 matchup against Seattle.
Ironically, while I mentioned that the Rams have allowed nine targets per game to the position, tight ends have been just as active against Miami, logging 10.33 targets per game over Miami’s last four games. My model projects Parkinson to see 2.99 targets tonight, catching 2.56 for 25.47 yards and 0.17 touchdowns. He’s a touchdown-or-bust type of play, but I’m comfortably rounding up my lineups with him.
Other Value Plays: Jason Sanders, Tutu Atwell, Odell Beckham Jr.
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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