RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope you all had a fantastic Thanksgiving, and the NFL has given us a special holiday treat this year with their inaugural "Black Friday" game. It'll be an AFC East showdown as the Miami Dolphins (7-3) look to establish themselves firmly in the race for the AFC's top seed as the head to the Meadowlands to take on Tim Boyle and the New York Jets (4-6).
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Dolphins vs. Jets NFL DFS showdown slate on November 24. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Raheem Mostert - RB, $15,300 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 131 rushing attempts, 691 rushing yards, 26 targets, 20 receptions, 158 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 15.32%
I'll start things off tonight with Raheem Mostert. Mostert and the Dolphins have somewhat of a rushing funnel in this game. Moster projects to 70.34 yards on 13.1 carries. He could also add an element in the passing game as the Jets rank 21st in DVOA to running backs as receivers (8.82%). Mostert projects to 2.27 receptions on 2.93 targets for 17.48 yards and in total 0.60 touchdowns. There are questions about whether De'Von Achane will play in this one, but if he's out, Mostert becomes an absolute must-play at the 1.5x spot.
Tyreek Hill - WR, $18,600 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 108 targets, 79 receptions, 1222 receiving yards, nine touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR1: -24.15%
I'll take a look at Tyreek Hill next. Hill had two relatively quiet games against the Jets last season, catching nine of 12 targets for just 70 yards last season. My model projects Hill to catch 6.12 of 10.73 targets in this one for 76.53 yards and 0.45 touchdowns in this one, though. He'll surely be lined up across from Sauce Gardner for most of the afternoon, but with the amount of motion and misdirection at the behest of head coach Mike McDaniel, it's hard to see him not finding opportunities for the Cheetah to get involved.
Other Captains/MVPs: Dolphins D/ST, Breece Hall, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa
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DFS Flex Plays
Breece Hall - RB, $7,600 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 117 rushing attempts, 544 rushing yards, 40 targets, 31 receptions, 296 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: -24.24%
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Breece Hall. Hall projects to 56.53 rushing yards on 14.9 carries as well as 2.49 receptions on 4.69 targets for 21.54 yards. He also projects to 0.47 touchdowns. Obviously, the Jets will be going with Tim Boyne at quarterback in this one. That makes me think we'll see a lot of Hall here, and while the projected rushing DVOA isn't great, I can see things working for them in the short passing game.
Tua Tagovailoa - QB, $11,000 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 2,934 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions, 25 rushing attempts, 39 rushing yards, three fumbles lost.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 17.73%
I'll take a look at Dolphins' quarterback Tua Tagovailoa next. I really don't love paying for Tua at this price considering how good I think the Jets' pass defense is and the rushing funnel it creates for the Dolphins. However, I do believe we're rather short on options in this showdown so we might as well grab a high-floor play here. Tua projects to have himself a fine game; 234.45 passing yards, 1.58 touchdowns, and 0.65 interceptions. On a slate where I felt there was more wiggle room I would probably fade him here, but I think he does just enough to be worth sticking in your lineup.
Other Flex Options: Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle
DFS Value Plays
Miami Dolphins - D/ST, $5,200 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 22 points per game allowed, 31 sacks, seven interceptions, five fumble recoveries.
I'll take a look at the Dolphins' defense next. As I mentioned with Breece Hall, the Jets have been spinning their wheels over the past few weeks which led to the benching of Zach Wilson. Well, the grass isn't always greener. Miami projects a 35.03% pressure rate and 11.23% sack rate, making things extremely tough for the Jets to move down the field consistently. Frankly, I'll be shocked if the Dolphins don't force Jets third-string quarterback Tim Boyle into turning the ball over more than once in this one.
Tyler Conklin - TE, $3,200 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 45 targets, 35 receptions, 381 receiving yards.
- Opposing Defensive DVOA vs TE: 20.24%
I'll wrap things up with Tyler Conklin. While my last bit about the Dolphins' defense I believe is true, I don't anticipate Tim Boyle not throwing a single completion here. I think he links up with Breece Hall and Tyler Conklin quite a bit. Conklin projects to 2.93 receptions on 3.98 targets for 26.39 yards and 0.16 touchdowns. I'm not saying that Conklin will have some massive breakout game, but I think splitting him and C.J. Uzomah in lineups is a solid option to create some space for the big boys.
Other Value Plays: Jason Sanders, C.J. Uzomah, Greg Zuerlein
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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