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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Dolphins vs. Chargers showdown slate on 12/11. His Sunday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well so far. After an interesting matchup between the Colts and Cowboys that was close for about three quarters before becoming an absolute blowout in favor of Dallas, we have what could be a good matchup in L.A. tonight. The Dolphins (8-4) look to bounce back following their loss to the 49ers last Sunday against the Chargers (6-6), who are looking to right the ship and make a playoff run. Let's see how it affects our DFS lineups.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Dolphins vs. Chargers NFL DFS showdown slate on December 11th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Tua Tagovailoa - QB, $15,600 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,859 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 43% (first), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 4.9% (16th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Tua Tagovailoa. Many are saying Tua got "exposed" against the 49ers last week, and while I think that saying that may be a bit of an exaggeration, I think he bounces back in a big way on Sunday Night Football. On top of having the best passing offense in the NFL in terms of DVOA, he draws a strong matchup against a Chargers defense that struggles to stop just about anybody. My model projects him for 295.81 passing yards and 2.34 touchdown passes tonight, and while you could toss one of his receivers here, I like Tua to spread the ball out enough to be considered my top pick for the 1.5x spots tonight.
Jeff Wilson Jr. - RB, $9,300 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 132 rushing attempts, 680 rushing yards, 26 targets, 16 receptions, 149 receiving yards, and five touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -2.3% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 5.3% (30th), per Football Outsiders.
Another strong option I believe, typically on DraftKings, is Jeff Wilson Jr. Wilson is seemingly taking over as the "number-one running back" in Miami's backfield, although coach Mike McDaniel stated that they were going to go with a "hot hand" approach. Nevertheless, my model projects Wilson to tote the rock 14.09 times tonight for 71.48 rushing yards, while adding 1.87 receptions for 14.99 receiving yards and a 63% chance of finding the end zone. Wilson is definitely a great option for full Miami onslaught stacks tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen
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DFS Flex Plays
Tyreek Hill - WR, $11,400 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 129 targets, 96 receptions, 1,379 yards, and five touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Bryce Callahan): 14% target rate, 76% catch rate, 0.28 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
Tripling up on Miami here, I'll take a look at Tyreek Hill as my first flex option tonight. Despite the relatively poor offensive performance by the entirety of Miami's offense last Sunday, Hill managed to have himself a big day, catching nine of 14 targets for 146 yards including a deep touchdown. My model projects Hill to log nearly eight receptions on 12.16 targets for 107.92 receiving yards and a 70% chance of finding the end zone, giving him the highest chance of scoring among all Dolphins skill position players.
Keenan Allen - WR, $8,200 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 35 targets, 22 receptions, 308 yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Kadar Kohou): 18% target rate, 66% catch rate, 0.23 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
On the other side, I'll take a look at Keenan Allen. Allen has been good when playing, but as usual with him, getting on the field has been his biggest hurdle. He saw 14 targets last week, catching six of them, logging 88 yards and a touchdown. I'm expecting a relatively similar production tonight, as my model projects him to grab 5.88 of 8.46 targets for 60.67 receiving yards and a 35% chance of finding the end zone tonight. While Ekeler is probably my favorite option among Chargers to choose from tonight, Allen's cheaper price makes him a solid option in my book.
Other Flex Options: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Williams
DFS Value Plays
Gerald Everett - TE, $5,000 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 65 targets, 43 receptions, 462 yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Jerome Baker): 11% target rate, 79% catch rate, 0.16 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll look at another Los Angeles pass catcher here, tight end Gerald Everett. Everett and the Chargers have a projected 16.67% DVOA when targeting tight ends tonight. While Keenan Allen being in the lineup does take away some of the opportunity value for Everett for red zone and end zone targets, I have to imagine that all hands will be on deck tonight as the Chargers try to keep pace with Miami's offense, and my model projects Everett for a lot of "43" number combos tonight: 4.31 receptions, 43.15 receiving yards, and a 43% chance of finding the end zone. Go figure.
Mike Gesicki - TE, $4,400 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 37 targets, 24 receptions, 269 yards, and four touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Drue Tranquill): 11% target rate, 84% catch rate, 0.19 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
Last but not least, I'll mention Mike Gesicki in this spot. This doesn't seem like the type of slate to go double-TE, with so many other skill position assets at each of these offenses' disposal. With that said, though, the Dolphins have a projected 42.17% DVOA when targeting their tight ends tonight, and my model has adjusted accordingly. Gesicki projects to just 2.14 receptions tonight but also projects to log 34.99 receiving yards and a 31% chance of scoring a touchdown.
Other Value Plays: Cameron Dicker, Trent Sherfield, Dolphins D/ST, Durham Smythe
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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