RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well so far. Boy, do we have a big one tonight! In my biased opinion, this is without question the best rivalry in football, and with the NFC East up for grabs, we can expect an emotional, high-octane game. The Dallas Cowboys (4-1) will head up north to take on their bitter rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles (5-0). It appears that Dallas will be without Dak Prescott once again, so it'll be up to Cooper Rush and the Dallas defense if they want to hand the Birds their first loss of the season.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Cowboys vs. Eagles NFL DFS showdown slate on October 16th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jalen Hurts - QB, $17,700 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,359 passing yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions, 266 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 30.6% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -28.6% (t3rd), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off the SNF slate with who else but Jalen Hurts. Hurts has yet to beat Dallas in his young career, but Sunday night could be the night. While I give a slight lean towards both teams utilizing their rushing attacks to keep their opponents' pass rush at bay, Jalen Hurts is such a big part of the Philadelphia pass rush it's so difficult not to take him in this spot. Hurts will look to keep the momentum going both with his arm and his legs and lead Philadelphia to 6-0.
Tony Pollard - RB, $12,000 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 44 rushing attempts, 248 rushing yards, 13 targets, seven receptions, 71 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 6.8% (9th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -4.4% (20th), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, I'll target the opposing rushing attack, not with Ezekiel Elliot but with Tony Pollard. While Zeke has seemingly terrorized the Eagles since he entered the league in 2016, it's becoming very clear he's the number two in their rushing offense now. I wish I could remember who tweeted it so I could give them credit, but I saw someone mention that Pollard has more yards after contact this season than Elliot has total yards. The Eagles' run defense has been their biggest issue on the defensive side of the ball in 2022, and I think Mike McCarthy will use both Pollard and Elliot to take advantage of that, but I'll lean toward Pollard due to his cheaper price and potential volume in this one.
Other Captains/MVPs: Miles Sanders, AJ Brown, Ezekiel Elliot
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DFS Flex Plays
Cooper Rush - QB, $9,400 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 839 passing yards, four touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 7.2% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -26.6% (t3rd), per Football Outsiders.
While I do think in Dallas's perfect world the rushing offense will lead the way for them tonight, the Eagles have been known to jump out to big leads early and often this season. Should this be the case, it'll be up to Cooper Rush to keep the Cowboys in the game. While Rush hasn't proven to be any more than a game manager, and a good one at that, there will likely be a time when Dallas needs him to make a play or two here. I wouldn't recommend using Rush in 100% of your lineups, but I wouldn't recommend fading him completely, either.
Dallas Goedert - TE, $9,600 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 29 targets, 24 receptions, 335 yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Anthony Barr): 10% targets per route, 77% catch rate, 0.13 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
In an offense that has an elite rushing attack, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia does run into the scenario of "too many mouths to feed" at times. While Jalen Hurts has been awesome this season, their offense is not built like the Chiefs' or Bills' offense where he's simply dispersing the ball to each and every one of his pass-catchers. With that said though, Goedert had his proverbial "coming out party" last week against Arizona, catching eight of his nine targets for 95 yards. I would hardly declare his matchup tonight against Anthony Barr a "smash spot", but it is worth noting that the Cowboys have a projected DVOA of 8.76% against the tight end, the highest number of all Philly pass-catchers in this one.
Other Flex Options: AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliot, DeVonta Smith
DFS Value Plays
Quez Watkins - WR, $4,600 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: Eight targets, five receptions, 88 yards, one touchdown
- Individual Matchup (vs Jourdan Lewis): 12% target rate, 84% catch rate, 0.21 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
A bit of a dart throw here, and I really do wish that Watkins was cheaper on DraftKings. I'm not choosing Watkins here because I think he'll see five targets and provide a solid floor for a value guy. I'm choosing Watkins here because despite Trevon Diggs being a pretty good CB, he's prone to get burnt at least once in a game. We saw it happen last week when Tutu Atwell got behind Diggs for a deep play, and I'm sure we'll see it again here. It'll be up to Jalen Hurts to make the throw, but I wouldn't be surprised if Watkins hauls his second deep touchdown of the season.
Eagles - D/ST, $4,200 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 16 points per game allowed, 17 sacks, six interceptions, five fumble recoveries, one defensive touchdown.
To be frank, unless Dak Prescott plays tonight, as an Eagles fan I'm not concerned in the least bit about the Cowboys' offense doing damage tonight. You can see above that the Eagles have more sacks than points per game allowed this season, and while Dallas's offensive line has been good in years past, it hasn't necessarily been the case this season. I currently have the Eagles projected for a 31% pressure rate and a projected sack rate of 8.04%. Mix in a Cooper Rush turnover and potentially a defensive score, and I could easily see the Philly defense landing in the optimal lineup tonight.
Other Value Plays: Noah Brown, Jake Elliott, Brett Maher, Cowboys D/ST, Dalton Schultz
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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