RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! After what I considered a "not-so-exciting" matchup last week turned out to be a pretty good game, we have a very exciting Sunday Night Football showdown as the Dallas Cowboys (3-1) head out west to take on the San Francisco 49ers (4-0). These two teams, along with the Philadelphia Eagles, are the class of the NFC. It'll be fun to watch these two elite defenses battle it out in a game that might look like late-90s/early-2000s football. Let's see how that affects our DFS lineups.
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Cowboys vs. 49ers Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on October 8. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Christian McCaffrey - RB, $17,700 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 80 carries, 459 rushing yards, 21 targets, 18 receptions, 141 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 12.33%
I'll start things off with Christian McCaffery, and why not? Not to sound like Cris Collinsworth, but we're talking about a guy whose first four games have put him in the MVP discussion -- a notorious quarterback award. Things definitely favor the run game for the 49ers in this one. My model projects CMC to run for 74.64 yards on 17.65 carries while grabbing 3.4 of his 4.81 targets for 25.25 receiving yards. He has a 65% chance of scoring a touchdown, according to my model. He's the most expensive play on the slate, but clearly the best play as well.
George Kittle - TE, $9,600 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 19 targets, 14 receptions, 148 receiving yards.
I'll take a peek at another 49er in my MVP/captain spot, this time George Kittle. Kittle hasn't found the end zone yet this season and the Cowboys haven't allowed a touchdown to a tight end yet this season, but for some reason I have a feeling he gets one tonight -- despite just the 24% chance, according to my model. He projects to catch 3.8 of his 5.27 targets for 49.49 yards as well. Either way, he has a pretty strong matchup against the Cowboys, who rank 18th in receptions allowed to tight ends and 14th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. Brock Purdy will look to get the ball out quickly against Micah Parsons and the Cowboys' vaunted pass rush, which leads me to believe Kyle Shanahan will use Kittle as well as the run game to neutralize it.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tony Pollard, 49ers D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
Tony Pollard - RB, $10,200 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 73 carries, 311 rushing yards, 17 targets, 15 receptions, 61 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -3.35%
I'll take a look at a pair of Cowboys in the flex spots for tonight's slate, starting off with Tony Pollard. Similarly to the 49ers, I think their path to victory is controlling the pace of the game. This includes running the ball between the tackles, with the 49ers ranking 32nd in 'power running' success at 91%, according to FTN. My model projects Pollard to gather 55.56 rushing yards on 15.53 carries, as well as catching 3.05 of 3.42 targets for 21.06 yards and a 49% chance of finding the end zone. Like Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott will also be pressured quite a bit in this one, so I think Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys will look to get quick screens to Pollard. This creates a solid reception floor to make up for Pollard's high price.
CeeDee Lamb - WR $10,000 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 30 targets, 23 receptions, 309 receiving yards, one touchdown.
It'll be CeeDee Lamb next. As previously mentioned, I believe both of these teams will look to control the game on the ground and through the short passing game. While I said this may look like a game from the early 2000s, the fact of the matter is that it's 2023 and teams are going to throw the ball. Lamb projects to 6.82 receptions on 8.19 targets for 80.94 yards and a 44% chance of finding the end zone. He has the most advantageous of matchups throughout the Cowboys pass-catchers as well.
Other Flex Options: Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Brandon Aiyuk
DFS Value Plays
San Francisco 49ers - D/ST, $4,000 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 14.5 points per game allowed, nine sacks, five interceptions.
Both of these teams have terrific offenses, and that's great. In the long run, it'll be advantageous. However, I think this game is going to be about defense. While Dak Prescott has only thrown one interception through the first four games of the season, last year he showed that he is very turnover-prone. With Dallas likely wanting to control the game on the ground, the San Francisco defense should be able to hold Dallas' offense in the short field, leaving them to kick field goals instead of ending up in the end zone.
Dallas Cowboys - D/ST, $3,400 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 10.25 points per game allowed, 14 sacks, seven interceptions, three fumble recoveries, four defensive touchdowns.
Double defense? Double defense. I mean, I can't say enough about these two units. I mean, the Cowboys' defense is averaging a touchdown per game. It took Brock Purdy and the 49ers a 10-point fourth quarter to handle the Cowboys. Purdy threw for just 214 yards in that one, and I expect him to be "running for his life" against the pass rush. Could CMC blow up and score three touchdowns on his own? Sure. However, I'll be backing both of these defensive units, particularly on DraftKings where I believe we're getting two absolute steals.
Other Value Options: Jake Moody, Brandon Aubrey
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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