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Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Commanders vs. Buccaneers SNF Showdown slate Wild Card Weekend (Jan. 12, 2025). Andy's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! The playoffs are finally here. In this piece, we will take a look at the Sunday Night Football showdown between the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the wild-card Washington Commanders led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
In this piece, I will break down my top choices for Captain/MVP, flex options, and even some high-risk players worth a flier on your roster.
For questions, follow me on X @A_Smith_FS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jayden Daniels - QB, $16,500 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Even though he left last weekend's game out of precaution with “minor leg soreness,” the standout rookie should be viewed as the top choice for a captain on this slate.
During the full 15 games he played this season, the LSU product averaged a stellar 26.3 PPR points. He averaged just under 300 total yards per game with 31 total scores and nine interceptions.
Daniels had been especially impressive during Weeks 12 through 17 when he averaged an incredible 34.0 PPR points per game. During this span, the former second overall pick tallied 17 total scores while averaging 320 total yards per game, including 68.7 rushing yards per game.
Jayden Daniels to Terry McLaurin for the improv touchdown. Unreal. pic.twitter.com/DKJsN8U38D
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) December 15, 2024
The rookie has enjoyed an incredible debut season but seems to be getting even better during the final stretch. Facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have allowed the third-most PPR points to opposing QBs, should provide Daniels with a very high floor and an elite ceiling.
Given his rushing ability, Daniels has the clearest path to being the highest-scoring player on the slate.
Bucky Irving- RB, $15,000 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Another top captain to consider is Tampa Bay running back Bucky Irving. The Oregon product had a limited role during the first half of the season but showed flashes while operating as the No. 2 running back behind Rachaad White. During his first 10 games of the season, Irving posted a stellar 5.1 yards per carry, while White posted a mere 3.8 yards per carry.
However, during the stretch run, Tampa Bay began to let the rookie lead the way in the rushing attack. Since Week 16, Irving has been deployed as the workhorse, as he has seen 18.3 attempts per game over the final three weeks, while White has seen just three per game.
During this span, Irving tallied 90.0 yards per game with two scores while averaging 19.2 PPR points per game.
He has a fantastic matchup against the Commanders, who have struggled to contain the run. Over their past three games, the Commanders have allowed an average of 104 rushing yards per game and five total scores to their opponent's top running back. Irving carries the highest upside of any skill position player on this slate.
On FanDuel, he is the cheapest captain out of my three recommendations, making him an elite play on that site.
Baker Mayfield- QB, $14,700 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
My final player worth considering as a captain is Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has enjoyed a career season, totaling 4,500 yards and 44 touchdowns.
Over his past five games, Mayfield has averaged an impressive 30.5 PPR points per game while tallying 293.2 passing yards and 29.8 rushing yards per game. During this span, Mayfield threw 16 touchdown passes.
BAKER MAYFIELD ON 3RD AND 14.
📺: #NOvsTB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/ZyN6ZRTpX1— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2025
However, during this span, Mayfield faced the two best matchups for opposing QBs in terms of fantasy points allowed (Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers), which helped him reach this elite production level.
Even though he has a tougher matchup on paper against the Commanders, as most teams typically beat them on the ground, this game carries a hefty 50.5 point total, suggesting both quarterbacks could light up the scoresheet.
On DraftKings, he is the cheapest captain out of these three players, making him a great play on that site.
Other Captains/MVPs: Terry McLaurin
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Terry McLaurin - WR, $9,600 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Since Week 3, Terry McLaurin has been the sixth-best wide receiver in PPR formats. During this stretch, he only fell under double-digit PPR points twice and has averaged 17.2 PPR points per game.
During Weeks 12 through 16, McLaurin scored six touchdowns while tallying 22.9 PPR points per game. Even though he caught just one pass in Week 17, McLaurin bounced back in a big way in Week 18, bringing in eight of his 12 targets for 62 yards and a score.
McLaurin has a fantastic matchup, as the Buccaneers have allowed the seventh-most PPR points to opposing wideouts. He is a must-play as a flex option.
Jalen McMillan - WR, $7,600 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
The third-round rookie has emerged as a legit playmaker in the Tampa Bay offense. Jalen McMillan is currently riding a five-game touchdown streak.
Over this stretch, he has averaged a strong 19.8 PPR points per game while tallying 63.2 yards per game with seven total scores.
MAYFIELD 🎯 MCMILLAN!!!!!
What a throw, what a catch 👀
pic.twitter.com/qqSVE9qObt— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 5, 2025
With Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) returning to practice and expected to play, he will likely cover Mike Evans, meaning McMillan will have a much better matchup against Benjamin St-Juste or Mike Sainristil, who has allowed the most yards this season among Washington defensive backs and an 89.0 and 90.8 QBR, respectively.
I would instead select McMillan over Evans on this slate, given Evans’ career struggles against Lattimore. While it may be foolish to bet against the future Hall of Famer, he has averaged just 51.0 yards and 3.4 receptions per game when lined up across from him.
Olamide Zaccheaus- WR, $6,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
My final wide receiver to target has seen a significant increase in volume since Noah Brown (kidney) was placed on injured reserve. During Weeks 16 and 17, Olamide Zaccheaus averaged 77.5 yards per game with three total scores while seeing 8.5 targets. In Week 18, he saw five targets and would have had another massive game if he could haul in a wide-open touchdown pass.
However, given how often Jayden Daniels has looked his way in the final month, I am willing to bet on a bounce-back. Facing a weak Tampa Bay secondary that has allowed the seventh-most PPR points to opposing wide receivers makes him a high-upside play with a strong floor, given his reliable target share.
Austin Ekeler - RB, $4,800 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Given the projected game script, Austin Ekeler should also have a significant role. Washington's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers carries the heaviest projected point total on the slate (50.5), and being the team’s primary receiving back should put Ekeler in great opportunities all evening.
Ekeler may even have an increased role in short yardage as primary power back Brian Robinson Jr. has averaged a mere 39.8 rushing yards per game over the past four contests. Throughout the season, Ekeler has averaged a strong 10.5 yards per reception.
Zach Ertz - TE, $6,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
My final flex option is Zach Ertz. Ertz was riding a three-game touchdown streak during Weeks 11 through 13 but hit a skid in Week 14 and 15 as he brought in just three passes for 37 yards over that span.
Perhaps lost in the playoff celebration, Zach Ertz made a sick catch for the game-winning TD. Look at the replay. Fingertip grab and then he needed strength to tuck the ball rather than let it hit the ground.pic.twitter.com/isRRnMlAvx
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) December 30, 2024
However, the veteran returned to form over the final two weeks, tallying three touchdowns with 5.5 receptions and 58.0 yards per game. Ertz has become a go-to option in the red zone for Daniels, scoring an impressive six touchdowns in seven contests.
Other Flex Options: Mike Evans
Budget Options - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Dyami Brown- WR, $3,400 (DK), $6,500 (FD)
Dyami Brown was set to play a more prominent role in the offense, with Noah Brown (kidney) sidelined. However, he suffered a hamstring injury and missed the Week 17 contest after leaving early in Week 16. However, when he returned to action in Week 18, he saw four targets.
He has been in a depth role throughout the season but should operate as the No. 3 option on Sunday night. He is worth a flier as your final flex option in a high-scoring game.
Payne Durham - TE, $4,200 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
My final budget option comes with much more risk. Payne Durham has replaced the injured Cade Otton (knee) and is riding a two-game touchdown streak. Over this span, Durham has only seen 2.5 targets per game but has made an impact in the red zone.
If you stack your lineup with the top salaries, Durham is a great final play as he has found a role as a red-zone threat and could extend his touchdown streak as the Buccaneers should not have much trouble moving downfield in this contest.
Note: If Otton returns, Durham is no longer viable and carries significantly more risk. I would then pivot to Chase McLaughlin, who has gone 30-of-32 on attempts this season and perfect from within 49 yards.
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