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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Dolphins vs Bengals showdown slate on 10/06. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with some Week 5 Thursday Night Football DFS lineups. Outside of the unfortunate injury to Tua Tagovailoa last Thursday, it was an overall pretty fun game to watch. I don't think we'll be so lucky this week, as the Indianapolis Colts head out to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos. Unfortunately, both teams' starting running backs won't be out there for this one, so we'll have to adjust accordingly.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Colts vs. Broncos NFL DFS showdown slate on October 6th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Russell Wilson - QB, $15,600 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 980 passing yards, four touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 11.5% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 23.9% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
Broncos Country, let's ride. I'll start off tonight's slate with Russell Wilson. While the newly acquired (and extended) quarterback has been a relative disappointment to start the season, he does project pretty well tonight. Following a loss to the previously 0-3 Las Vegas Raiders, I can see Wilson bouncing back and having himself a solid game following the loss of his top running back Javonte Williams. I will want to pair him directly with the next guy we'll be talking about...
Courtland Sutton - WR, $14,100 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 35 targets, 24 receptions, 343 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Brandon Facyson): 11% targets per route, 80% catch rate, 0.18 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Courtland Sutton and Russell Wilson are by far my favorite correlation on this showdown slate tonight. I would probably lean on Sutton as my favorite guy to play in the 1.5x spot on DraftKings, considering his cheaper price and ceiling upside. While his matchup against Brandon Facyson doesn't look the greatest on the surface, it should be noted that the Broncos have a projected 48.35% DVOA at the #1 WR spot tonight, which makes me think Sutton is projected for a huge game tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Michael Pittman Jr., Broncos D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
Michael Pittman Jr. - WR, $10,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 28 targets, 20 receptions, 224 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Patrick Surtain II): 22% targets per route, 58% catch rate, 0.22 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
On the other side of the field, we have Michael Pittman Jr. With Jonathan Taylor OUT for tonight's game, it'll be up to Pittman to step up as the only "star" that the Colts have on offense. To be frank, the -56.95% projected DVOA at the #1 WR spot and the matchup against Patrick Surtain II don't have me very confident that Pittman Jr. has a great game tonight, if the Colts are going to do anything on the offensive side of the ball, it'll be through Pittman and...
Nyheim Hines - RB, $6,800 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: Eight attempts, 11 rushing yards, 19 targets, 17 receptions, 113 receiving yards.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -34.9% (32nd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Rush DVOA: -3.9% (20th), per Football Outsiders.
Nyheim Hines will be taking the reins along with Phillip Lindsay in the Colts backfield tonight. It's probable (in my opinion) that Hines will get more of the receiving work out of the backfield while Lindsay will get more of the carries. I can't say I love this play because of this, and I will likely end up fading him on FanDuel, but as I mentioned with Pittman, if the Colts are going to do anything on the offensive side of the ball, it'll likely go through these guys.
Other Flex Options: Melvin Gordon II, Jerry Jeudy, Mike Boone
DFS Value Plays
Denver Broncos - D/ST, $4,200 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 15.5 points per game allowed, 11 sacks, one interception, three fumble recoveries
Although I mentioned two of them above, I'm pretty bearish on the Colts' offense tonight. With that said I absolutely love the Broncos' defense as a value play tonight, and don't be afraid to throw them in the 1.5x spot on both sites either. Denver's defense has certainly been the better side of the ball for them this season, and I really can't see a turnover-prone Matt Ryan getting much done against them.
Phillip Lindsay - RB, $400 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: N/A
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -34.9% (32nd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Rush DVOA: -3.9% (20th), per Football Outsiders.
Of all the players on the Colts' offense tonight, I would probably say that Lindsay is my favorite. The only reason I feel this way is due to him being the minimum price on DraftKings. I wouldn't recommend playing both him and Hines in the same lineup, but will likely have at minimum a 50/50 split between the two of them tonight. While the Colts seemingly refused to give Jonathan Taylor carries at the goal line so far this season, with Lindsay squaring up against his former squad, let's hope he can find the end zone.
Other Value Plays: Colts D/ST, Latavius Murray, Brandon McManus, Chase McLaughlin, Albert Okwuegbunam, Kylen Granson, Eric Saubert
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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