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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with some Week 18 Saturday Afternoon Showdown DFS picks. We have an AFC West showdown as the Chiefs (13-3) head to Vegas to take on the Raiders (6-10). This game means a lot for the Chiefs, who will clinch the one-seed in the AFC with a win. Meanwhile, the Raiders will start Jarrett Stidham once again after his strong performance against the 49ers last weekend.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the end of the season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chiefs vs. Raiders NFL DFS showdown slate on January 7th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $18,900 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 5,048 passing yards, 40 touchdowns, 12 interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 44.3% (first), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 24.5% (32nd), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight off with Patrick Mahomes. I mean, all you need to do is look up and you'll see why. Sure, Mahomes is super expensive, particularly on DraftKings, but the matchup is literally the best you can get as the Chiefs rank first in offensive pass DVOA while the Raiders rank dead last in defensive pass DVOA. My model projects Mahomes to complete 26.11 of 40.89 pass attempts for 329.93 yards and 2.43 touchdowns.
Jarrett Stidham - QB, $13,500 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 437 passing yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 10.1% (16th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 9% (21st), per Football Outsiders
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Jarrett Stidham. Stidham had an impressive game against San Francisco's vaunted defense, throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns while adding another 34 yards on the ground. He did throw two interceptions, but he gets an easier matchup against the Chiefs in this one. I imagine that the Raiders will play this one with a stress-free attitude, and maybe the Chiefs will stress a bit, but my model projects Stidham for 235.55 passing yards and 1.79 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Travis Kelce, Davante Adams, Kadarius Toney
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DFS Flex Plays
Davante Adams - WR, $11,200 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 171 targets, 95 receptions, 1,443 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs L'Jarius Sneed): 17% targets per route, 71% catch rate, 0.28 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll look to correlate Stidham with Davante Adams. Now, you can put either one at the 1.5x spot and the other in the flex, but I really do like this pair in this showdown. Adams has the best matchup of all Raiders pass-catchers, with a projected 23.63% DVOA when being targeted. My model projects him for 6.51 receptions on 10.96 targets for 77.85 receiving yards and a 60% chance of finding the end zone.
JuJu Smith-Schuster - WR, $6,800 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 99 targets, 76 receptions, 898 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Amik Robertson): 14% targets per route, 58% catch rate, 0.26 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll take a look at the other "number one wide receiver" next, Juju Smith-Schuster, next. While he doesn't have the best matchup among the Chiefs' pass catchers at 47.33%, it is the next highest (more on that later). The individual matchup against Amik Robertson isn't the best in terms of catch rate, but in truth, I'm targeting all Chiefs pass catchers in this one in some way shape, or form. My model projects Juju for five receptions on 6.55 targets for 58.93 yards and a 38% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Flex Options: Travis Kelce, Josh Jacobs, Isaih Pacheco
DFS Value Plays
Kadarius Toney - WR, $5,000 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 18 targets, 14 receptions, 153 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Tyler Hall): 13% targets per route, 47% catch rate, 0.09 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
While Juju has the second-best matchup against the Raiders' defense in terms of pass catchers, Kadarius Toney takes the top slot with a whopping 77.03% projected DVOA when being targeted. As with Juju, the individual matchup isn't terrific, but Andy Reid knows enough to move around his guys to create mismatches so I'm taking that with a grain of salt. My model projects Toney for 2.77 receptions on 4.53 targets for 34.3 receiving yards and a 25% chance of scoring a touchdown.
Hunter Renfrow - WR, $4,400 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 43 targets, 29 receptions, 267 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Trent McDuffie): 11% targets per route, 53% catch rate, 0.14 fantasy points per route, per PFF
"Third and Renfrow" is back, and while he didn't have a great game last Sunday with Stidham under center (three receptions on four targets for 19 yards), I'm expecting a bounce back from him in this one. He has a projected -11.78% DVOA when being targeted, but his presence should help take some of the heat off of Davante Adams. My model projects him for 3.04 receptions on 4.33 targets for 27.33 yards and a 21% chance of finding the end zone. My rule of thumb is when a player of his caliber is this cheap, particularly on DraftKings, there's little to no reason not to play him.
Other Value Plays: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs D/ST, Darren Waller
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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