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Welcome back and happy October, RotoBallers! We have a not-so-interesting matchup tonight, as the Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) head up to East Rutherford to take on the New York Jets (1-2). Aside from the Aaron Rodgers injury for the Jets, both of these teams come into this one relatively healthy. The weather seems to be all clear here as well, so let's see how our DFS lineups shake out. Let's get right to it.
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chiefs vs. Jets Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on October 1. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $18,600 (DK), $18,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 803 passing yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions, 16 carries, 103 rushing yards.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 52.13%
I'll start the slate off obviously with Patrick Mahomes. This is a tough test for the Chiefs offense, obviously, with how good the Jets defense has been since Robert Salah took the reigns. However, they rank just 24th in DVOA (21.71%) this season. My model projects Mahomes to complete just under 65% of his passes for 274.27 yards and 1.98 touchdowns. What would really concern me in regards to the Chiefs offense would be if Travis Kelce had a tough matchup, but he doesn't. More on that...
Travis Kelce - TE, $16,500 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 17 targets, 11 receptions, 95 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
Speaking of Travis Kelce, let's take a moment to talk about Taylor Swift's boyfriend. Obviously, in a perfect world, I wouldn't want to recommend the two most expensive (and likely chalk) plays as my top two MVP/Captain recommendations. This is just the reality of the situation though -- when on one side you have the best fantasy one-two punch in the league, and on the other side you don't have much at all. Kelce projects to 6.67 receptions on 8.23 targets tonight for just under 85 yards and 0.84 touchdowns. The Jets come into this one ranked 30th in DVOA vs. TEs at 58.12%.
Other Captains/MVPs: Chiefs D/ST, Isiah Pacheco
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DFS Flex Plays
Isiah Pacheco - RB, $8,400 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 35 carries, 155 rushing yards, nine targets, seven receptions, 47 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -23.15%
I'll take a look at Isiah Pacheco next. Pacheco has some decent projections for this game: 57.76 rushing yards on 11.64 carries, 1.74 receptions on 2.1 targets for 12.4 yards, and 0.40 touchdowns. I'm really not in love with Pacheco here, especially considering his expensive price, but we do have some slim pickings here and this is a game-script play. If the Chiefs are able to score early and often and this game gets out of hand, we could see Pacheco exceed 20 carries and perhaps find the end zone.
Skyy Moore - WR $6,400 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 13 targets, seven receptions, 112 receiving yards, one touchdown.
Outside of Kelce, Skyy Moore is my next pass-catching target if I'm looking to correlate with Patrick Mahomes. Moore hasn't done much through three games, disappointing for season-long fantasy owners who were expecting a big year. However, he does have the best matchup in terms of Chiefs wide receivers tonight, with the Jets coming into this one with a 13.62% DVOA against top wide receivers. He doesn't project too great according to my model (2.9 receptions on 4.27 targets for 0.19 touchdowns), but I'll trust the matchup, with hopes he can get behind the Jets' defense at least once.
Other Flex Options: Garrett Wilson, Jerick McKinnon, Breece Hall
DFS Value Plays
Kansas City Chiefs - D/ST, $5,200 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 11.3 points per game allowed, eight sacks, one interception, three fumbles recovered.
Considering I've now gone through my MVP/Captain and Flex plays and have yet to name a single Jet, I'm sure you saw this coming. The Chiefs defense has actually been quite impressive in 2023, allowing just 34 points in total. Sure, the Bears stink and that may be what boosts their wOBA (-12.6%, Eighth), but it's not like the Jets' offense is much more impressive. I expect this defensive line to shut the run down, get after Zach Wilson, and create some havoc for the Jets' offense.
Tyler Conklin - TE, $1,600 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 12 targets, nine receptions, 78 receiving yards.
I'll wrap things up with the only New York Jet that I'll have a decent amount of exposure to, Tyler Conklin. Conklin has been a solid safety blanket for Zach Wilson, and the fact we're getting a player who has six and five targets across his last two games at just $1,600 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel is a steal I believe. Conklin projects 3.23 receptions on 4.55 targets for 32.77 yards and 0.11 touchdowns. He'll surely be highly owned, but if he finds the end zone, you won't want to be the person who misses out on him.
Other Value Options: Harrison Butker, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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