RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well so far. We had the Chiefs play the Titans on Sunday Night Football two weekends ago, and the Chargers play the 49ers last week on Sunday night. Now, these two teams will match up as Kansas City (7-2) heads into L.A. to take on the Bolts (5-4) in an AFC West showdown. These two teams have been known to have some shootouts, with the game total landing over 50 in five of their last six matchups, including each of their last four. We'll see how that affects our DFS lineups in this one, so let's take a look.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chiefs vs. Chargers NFL DFS showdown slate on November 20th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
MVP/Captain Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $17,100 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,936 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 45.4% (2nd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -1.7% (12th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start off tonight's slate with Patrick Mahomes, of course. Mahomes is on a tear this season and is looking to claim his second NFL MVP award. He's done pretty well against the Chargers, tossing 2,062 yards and 18 touchdowns to just five interceptions in eight games against LA. This includes Week 2 of last season where Mahomes completed 24 of 35 passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns. In a game that should be high-scoring, and with a projected passing DVOA of 46.01%, it's hard to fade Mahomes on this slate.
Austin Ekeler - RB, $16,500 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 104 rushing attempts, 451 rushing yards, 81 targets, 67 receptions, 420 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -23.8% (32nd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -3.8% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, we have Austin Ekeler. Ekeler has played in 10 games against Kansas City in his career and averages 4.8 yards per carry and 5.3 receptions as well as 85.4 scrimmage yards. While he's only scored three touchdowns across those 10 games, my data model gives him a 55% chance of scoring tonight, which I believe should be higher. Although the reinforcements may be en route, with both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen slated as questionable for tonight's showdown, I'll expect the Chargers and QB Justin Herbert to rely on Ekeler in the short passing game to move the ball down the field.
Other Captains/MVPs: Travis Kelce, Kadarius Toney, Jerick McKinnon, Justin Herbert
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DFS Flex Plays
Justin Herbert - QB, $10,400 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,450 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, six interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 3.6% (21st), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 12.4% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
Speaking of Justin Herbert and his potential reinforcements, it's hard to say that he won't get at least a slight bump with his top two receivers potentially being in the lineup for the same time since Week 1. Herbert threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns in that matchup and has played well against the Chiefs in his career, tossing 1,464 passing yards and 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions in five games against them. Every time the Chiefs take the field, you know they're going to score points, so it'll be up to Herbert and the Chargers' passing offense to keep up.
Travis Kelce - TE, $7,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 84 targets, 63 receptions, 740 receiving yards, eight touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Drue Tranquill): 11% targets per route, 86% catch rate, 0.19 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
We'll take a look at Travis Kelce, who gets a massive bump this week with JuJu Smith-Schuster ruled out for tonight's matchup and Mecole Hardman placed on IR this week. This will be Kelce's 17th game against the Chargers in his career. He averages 5.1 receptions on 7.3 targets per game while adding five touchdowns across those 17 games. The Chargers project to a 42.77% DVOA against the tight end position tonight, and my model projects Kelce to haul in 6.52 of his 9.8 targets for 85.8 receiving yards with a 50% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Flex Options: Kadarius Toney, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Isiah Pacheco
DFS Value Plays
Gerald Everett - TE, $4,800 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 55 targets, 34 receptions, 364 yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Willie Gay Jr.): 22% target rate, 96% catch rate, 0.38 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
From one tight end to the other, we'll take a look at Gerald Everett. While Everett doesn't have the same great DVOA matchup as Kelce does, he does have a strong matchup against Willie Gay Jr. in this one, who allows a 96% catch rate on a 22% target rate. As previously mentioned, the Chargers are potentially getting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen tonight. While that may knock his projection a bit, I do believe their presence on the field should open up the passing game to Everett.
Jerick McKinnon - RB, $4,600 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 33 rushing attempts, 125 rushing yards, 33 targets, 25 receptions, 212 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -6.1% (20th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 5.9% (29th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll finish things off with Jerick McKinnon this evening. I would consider this a DraftKings-specific play simply due to the full-PPR scoring rather than FanDuel's half-PPR scoring. The Chargers have a projected 52.77% DVOA to running backs in the passing game, and with JuJu and Hardman not playing in this one, I believe Jerick McKinnon will "eat" in the short and intermediate passing game as the Chiefs march the ball down the field.
Other Value Plays: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Cameron Dicker, Justin Watson
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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